Brentford VS Newcastle United

Brentford host Newcastle for this English Premier League round 38 battle at Brentford Community Stadium in London) late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the best league on the planet as a whole! The fact that no English team made it to the UEFA Champions League – or Europa League - final this season does not change this fact. Football enthusiasts and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of somewhat mediocre quality by this league's standards. However, we have won an almost incredible 10 picks in a row betting on this league and have yet another very promising game here – betting-wise at least I mean. I will be posting two more picks on Sunday's Premier League games! This is the 38th - and last round of the Premier League. Not that many teams have much to play for left – in terms of qualifying for one of UEFA's club competitions – or being relegated to the Championship for next season. Places for next season's UEFA Champions League have already been finalised, with Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa finishing in the top-4, although not necessarily in that order with the title-winners still to be decided. Arsenal would need help from West Ham – and beat Everton to win the championship. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. Who will fill the three other European spots is still to be resolved today. Indeed, Newcastle have a chance to qualify for the Europa League but they need a win to have a chance of toppling Chelsea who have taken 60 points. I believe Newcastle will take big risks if they are trailing – or the score is level late into the second half.  This, of course, increases their chances of winning  - and decreases the probability of a draw, Let's not forget that they or still a strong team and even played in the Champions League group stage this season – even beating PSG, the eventual semifinalists, 4-1 at home after a magnificent performance last autumn! They were very close to qualifying for the Playoffs from a very difficult group where the other two teams were AC Milan and the finalists, Dortmund.

Whoever finishes sixth will also qualify for a UEFA competition. Which competition they go into will not be confirmed until after the FA Cup final which is played later this month. If Man City win the FA Cup, the Europa League place they would get for triumphing at the legendary Wembley Stadium will be transferred to sixth place as Pep Guardiola’s team already have a spot in next season's UEFA Champions League.  Seventh place would then result in qualification for the UEFA Europa Conference League. If Man United win the FA Cup they would take the second Europa League spot, and whoever ends up in sixth will drop into the Conference League. One of Tottenham, Chelsea and Newcastle are most likely to finish in sixth. A Newcastle win at Brentford and an (unlikely) defeat for Chelsea would mean that (at the moment) seventh-placed Newcastle will topple Chelsea into sixth spot. 8th-placed Man Utd can match current occupiers of this place, Chelsea’s, current 60-point tally if they beat Brighton and Chelsea lose.. However, Man Utd have a significantly worse goal difference, -3 to be precise, compared with Chelsea’s +13, so Man United would also need a massive swing in that respect to finish above Chelsea, along with Newcastle (score difference +21) not beating Brentford - Newcastle have 24 goals (!!!) better score difference than Man United.. Newcastle have netted the ball an impressive 81 times but their defence has been too shaky - and silly individual mistakes have been too frequent - to challenge for a top-4 place.. They have conceded 60 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is "only" 56.67. They have 57 points to their account but their number of expected points (xPTS) is much higher - 65.24.

Brentford, on the other hand, sit at disappointing 16th place with only 39 points in their pocket and have declined from last season. They, too, have been unlucky in terms of xPTS though. Even so, they cannot match Newcastle in any area of the game! They have scored 54 goals and have allowed 61 goals and have no obvious strengths or weaknesses. With the expected lineups I see Newcastle having a 53.50% chance of winning. The hosts will be without Dasilva, Henry, Hickey and Mee. Collings is questionable. As for Newcastle, Botman, Lascelles, Livramento, Miley, Targett, Tonali (suspended for a long-time for a gambling-related reason) and Willock are out. Gordon and Wilson are questionable at the time of posting this in-depth analysis. Yes, I do believe the Brentford players want to give their best here – thanking the fans for their huge support throughout the long season. As I have mentioned many times before, in England – and in many other big football countries -  doing well in the very last home is widely considered very important! However, they will surely avoid injuries and their manager might well rotate the squad to some extent - giving some of the younger talents a chance to prove their skills. The Brentford would certainly like that - even if cost them a win or a draw. I have taken all this into account in my probability estimation. In my over 23 years of professional football betting I have realised that the bookies - and recreational bettors alike - regularly fail to give this "last home game boost" factor enough emphasis, but this applies to situations where the away team has nothing to play for.. As mentioned, Newcastle should be extremely motivated! The chance of making it to a big UEFA competition is definitely stronger than the "last home game motivation". Yes, Newcastle's motivation could understandably drop if they hear Chelsea are crushing Bournemouth at home but Bournemouth are a surprisingly good team, currently in 11th place.. Let's also remember that Chelsea have been very erratic this season - and have been a big disappointment as a whole..

Brentford beat Bournemouth 2-1 on the road in their last game. However, the hosts recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they faced Fulham at home as solid favourites – priced around 2.10 to win on the betting market. It was a goalless draw in the end and the match was of pretty poor level. However, Fulham recorded many more goal attempts (15-7) and shots off goal (12-4). Both teams recorded three shots on goal. Fulham also recorded more in expected goals (xG) 1.45-0.84 to be precise. A lame performance from Brentford as a whole. In round 35 they lost to Everton away from home 0-1 as narrow favourites. The hosts recorded many more goal attempts (18-10) as well as moderately more in xG – 1.27-0.88. Newcastle lost to Man United 2-3 at Old Trafford in their last game. However, they had 56% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal and dangerous attack – 64-48. Both teams had eight shots on target. The xG numbers were 2.45-2.04 in Newcastle's favour. Before this Newcastle were very unlucky not to get all three points against Brighton – it was a 1-1 draw. Newcastle recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, corner kicks, completed passes, attacks and  dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 2.65-1.87. In round 36 Newcastle crushed motivated Burnley who were fighting very hard to avoid relegation. It was a fine 4-1 away win for Newcastle! Yes, they deserved to win but Burnley did have 47% ball possession and 17 goal attempts though. However Newcastle managed many more – 23 to be precise. Moreover, Newcastle managed 11 shots on goal – Burnley's number was five. The xG numbers were 1.44-3.11, so the final score does unarguably flatter Newcastle to some extent. In round 35 they very easily defeated Sheffield United 5-1 at home in a pretty open and entertaining - but not very high level game.

GOOD LUCK and thank you, all my loyal fans, for a great Premier League season 2023-2024!

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布伦特福德VS纽卡斯尔联队

北京时间周日晚，英超联赛第38轮将在伦敦布伦特福德社区体育场举行，布伦特福德主场迎战纽卡斯尔。这是这个星球上最好的联赛!尽管本赛季没有一支英格兰球队进入欧冠或欧联杯决赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。按照联赛的标准，足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场质量有些平庸的比赛。然而，我们已经连续赢得了几乎不可思议的10次选秀权，并且在这里还有另一场非常有希望的比赛-至少我的意思是赌博。我将在周日的英超比赛中再发表两篇文章!这是英超联赛的第38轮，也是最后一轮。没有多少球队有太多的比赛要做——从欧足联俱乐部比赛的资格来看——或者下赛季降级到英冠。下赛季欧洲冠军联赛的参赛名额已经确定，曼城、阿森纳、利物浦和阿斯顿维拉排在前四，尽管他们的排名不一定是前四，因为冠军得主仍有待决定。阿森纳需要西汉姆联的帮助，并击败埃弗顿赢得冠军。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。谁来填补其他三个欧洲席位，今天仍有待解决。事实上，纽卡斯尔有机会进入欧联杯，但他们需要一场胜利才能有机会击败已经拿到60分的切尔西。我相信纽卡斯尔会冒很大的风险，如果他们落后的话，或者下半场比分持平的话。当然，这增加了他们获胜的机会，减少了平局的可能性。让我们不要忘记，他们仍然是一支强大的球队，本赛季甚至参加了欧冠小组赛，甚至在去年秋天的精彩表现之后，在主场以4比1击败了最终进入半决赛的巴黎圣日耳曼!他们在一个非常困难的小组中非常接近季后赛资格，另外两支球队是AC米兰和决赛选手多特蒙德。

获得第六名的球队也将有资格参加欧足联的比赛。他们参加哪一场比赛要等到本月晚些时候举行的足总杯决赛之后才能确定。如果曼城赢得足总杯冠军，他们在传奇的温布利球场赢得的欧联杯席位将转移到第六位，因为瓜迪奥拉的球队已经获得了下赛季欧洲冠军联赛的席位。第七名将获得参加欧洲联赛的资格。如果曼联赢得足总杯，他们将获得第二个欧联杯席位，而无论谁最终获得第六名，都将进入联盟联赛。热刺、切尔西和纽卡斯尔最有可能排在第六位。纽卡斯尔在布伦特福德的胜利和切尔西(不太可能)的失败将意味着(目前)排名第七的纽卡斯尔将把切尔西挤到第六位。如果曼联击败布莱顿而切尔西输球的话，他们可以追平目前占据这个位置的切尔西的60分。然而，曼联的净胜球比切尔西差得多，确切地说是-3，而切尔西的净胜球是+13，所以曼联在这方面也需要一个巨大的转变来超越切尔西，再加上纽卡斯尔(净胜球+21)无法击败布伦特福德——纽卡斯尔有24球(!!)比曼联的净胜球好。纽卡斯尔有81次进球，令人印象深刻，但是他们的防守太不稳定了，而且愚蠢的个人失误太频繁，无法挑战前四的位置。他们丢了60个球，但他们的预期失球(xGA)“只有”56.67个。他们的账户上有57分，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)要高得多，达到65.24分。

另一方面，布伦特福德仅以39分的积分排在令人失望的第16位，比上赛季有所下降。不过，它们在xPTS方面也不太走运。即便如此，他们在比赛的任何领域都无法与纽卡斯尔匹敌!他们进了54个球，丢了61个球，没有明显的优势和劣势。根据预期的阵容，我认为纽卡斯尔有53.50%的获胜机会。东道主将没有达西尔瓦、亨利、希基和梅。科林斯值得怀疑。至于纽卡斯尔，博特曼、拉塞尔斯、利夫拉曼托、麦莉、塔吉特、托纳利(因赌博原因停赛一段时间)和威尔洛克都将缺席。戈登和威尔逊在发表这篇深度分析时受到质疑。是的，我相信布伦特福德的球员们想要在这里发挥出最好的水平——感谢英足总

感谢他们在漫长的赛季中给予的巨大支持。正如我之前多次提到的，在英格兰——以及许多其他足球大国——在最后一个主场取得好成绩被普遍认为是非常重要的!然而，他们肯定会避免伤病，他们的教练可能会在某种程度上轮换阵容，给一些年轻的天才球员一个证明自己技能的机会。布伦特福德当然会喜欢这样——即使他们输掉了一场胜利或一场平局。在我的概率估计中，我已经把所有这些都考虑进去了。在我超过23年的职业足球投注生涯中，我意识到，博彩公司——以及娱乐投注者——通常都没有给予这种“最后一场主场比赛的刺激”因素足够的重视，但这适用于客场球队没有任何比赛的情况。如前所述，纽卡斯尔应该是非常有动力的!进入欧足联大型赛事的机会肯定比“最后一场主场比赛的动力”更强。是的，如果纽卡斯尔听到切尔西在主场击败伯恩茅斯，他们的动力可能会下降，但伯恩茅斯是一支令人惊讶的优秀球队，目前排名第11位。我们也要记住，切尔西本赛季的表现非常不稳定，而且整体上令人失望。

布伦特福德队在上一场比赛中客场2-1击败了伯恩茅斯队。然而，东道主的进球次数、射门次数和危险进攻次数都有所增加。在此之前，他们在主场面对富勒姆，他们是最受欢迎的球队，在博彩市场上的胜率约为2.10英镑。最后是一场0比0的平局，比赛的水平相当低。然而，富勒姆的进球次数(15-7)和射门次数(12-4)更多。两队都有三次射正。富勒姆的预期进球(xG)也更多，准确地说是1.45-0.84。布伦特福德的整体表现很差劲。在第35轮比赛中，他们在客场0-1输给了埃弗顿。东道主的进球次数更多(18-10次)，xG - 1.27-0.88的进球次数也略多一些。纽卡斯尔在上一场比赛中在老特拉福德以2比3输给了曼联。然而，他们有56%的控球率，并且记录了更多的进球尝试，射门和危险进攻- 64-48。两队都有8次射正。xG值为2.45-2.04，对纽卡斯尔有利。在这场比赛之前，纽卡斯尔很不幸，没能在对阵布莱顿的比赛中全取三分，打成1-1平。纽卡斯尔的进球次数、射门次数、总传球次数、角球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。xG值为2.65 ~ 1.87。在第36轮比赛中，纽卡斯尔击败了努力保级的伯恩利。纽卡斯尔客场4:1大胜!是的，他们理应获胜，但伯恩利的控球率为47%，射门次数为17次。然而纽卡斯尔取得了更多的进球——准确地说是23。此外，纽卡斯尔有11次射门，而伯恩利只有5次。xG的数字是1.44-3.11，所以最终的比分无可争议地在某种程度上取悦了纽卡斯尔。在第35轮的比赛中，他们在主场轻松地以5-1击败了谢菲尔德联队，这是一场非常开放和有趣的比赛，但不是很高水平的比赛。

祝你好运，谢谢我所有忠实的球迷，祝你们有一个伟大的2023-2024赛季!