Luton Town vs Fulham

Luton host Fulham for this English Premier League round 38 clash at Kenilworth Road late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the best league on the planet as a whole! The fact that no English team made it to the UEFA Champions League – or Europa League - final this season does not change this fact. Football fans and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of somewhat low by this league's standards. However, we have won an amazing 10 picks in a row betting on this league and have yet another very promising game here – betting-wise I mean. For entertainment I recommend my fans to watch another match.. I will be posting several more picks on Sunday's Premier League games! This is the 38th - and last round of the Premier League. Not many teams have much to play for left – in terms of qualifying for one of UEFA's club competitions – or being relegated to the Championship for next season. This is the case here as well. In reality Luton have already lost their genuine chances of avoiding relegation and will go back to the Championship next season. This is not a surprise at all and we can say that Luton being able to keep their place in the Premier League would have been unexpected.. Even so, they have still fought reasonably well this season - taking into account that their squad is limited, to say the least, for this level. They are in 18th place at the moment - in this league with a total of 20 clubs. They were rated the worst team in this league by most of the bookies and football journalists - as well as by me - before the season started. However, this has not been the case and the bookies should respect them more.. Luton have exceeded expectations and have taken 26 points. Moreover, their number of expected points (xPTS) is significantly higher – 32.45 to be precise. They have scored surprisingly many goals – 50 – which is a huge 11 goals more than a much bigger team, Everton! Their defence has simply lacked individual skill needed for this level and they have allowed way too many goals – 81 to be precise. Yes, their defenders definitely try their best but it is hard to write anything positive about their defence..

I expect a relaxed and offensive game here – with an even bigger goal expectancy than the bookies estimate.. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. This is very important to understand when analysing this game. The bottom-three teams will be relegated. Luton are three points away from Nottingham, in 17th place, but Nottingham's score difference is -19. Luton's goal difference is -31. This means that with a probability of more than 99.99% Luton will return to the Championship. Miracles can, of course, happen and Luton we can ask ourselves – why would Luton not go all in right from the kick off..? Luton are a small club for this level but have loyal and loud fans and I believe the players want to give their best here – thanking the fans for their huge support throughout the challenging season - or should we say a memorable adventure at the highest level.. In England – and in many other big football countries - doing well in the very last home is widely considered very important! In my over 23 years of professional football betting I have realised that the bookies and recreational bettors regularly fail to give this factor about emphasis! Fulham are not a great team and have clearly declined from last season when they were very lucky in terms of xPTS (+15.11 points). They sit safely at 14th place in the standings. Fulham have 44 points to their account. Their number of xPTS is even a bit smaller – 42.04 to be precise. They have netted the ball 51 times and have conceded 59 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much bigger - 67.87. Luton will surely be able to create many scoring chances here..

Let's keep in mind that Fulham have been poor on the road this season, winning only three of the 18 away games in this league. Their score difference in these games is very poor – 20:35. Furthermore, a relatively small number of away fans are expected to be at the stadium. With the expected lineups – taking the significant motivation factor into account – Fulham deserve to be only marginal favourites here. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits disagree. At the time of posting this late Friday evening Beijing time odds on the away win are only around 2.15. Luton to void defeat is the obvious smart bet here! Luton will be without Andersen, Bell, Brown, Kabore, Lockyer, Nakamba and Potts – due to different kinds of injuries, Barkley is questionable. As for Fulham Diop is out due to a previous red card – Lukic is questionable. Both teams have been in poor form recently. Indeed, the hosts have won only one – and the visitors two of their last 10 matches. However, Luton, according to my sources, have a great team spirit – despite all the struggles this season.. They have kept on fighting hard this spring! Fulham, on the other hand, have looked pretty relaxed, - even lazy - in many games in April and May. In their last game they faced Manchester City at home and were totally humiliated! The visitors took a 4-0 win after recording massively more goal attempts (16-1), shots on goal (9-1) and corner kicks (7-1). Man City also recorded many more total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Man City were, of course, big favourites in this game but Fulham's performance – and body language - on the pitch for the most of the 90 minutes was still very poor! They generated a very pathetic 0.08 in expected goals (xG). Before this they faced Brentford, a somewhat disappointing team this season, and it was a pretty boring and low-level game as a whole. No goals were scored. In round 35 Fulham locked horns with Crystal Palace at home as clear favourites – priced around 2.05-2.10 to win on the betting market. However, the visitors recorded many more goal attempts (14-9), shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were very balanced 1.13-1.11 to be precise. In round 34 Fulham had very few chances at home against Liverpool – losing 1-3. I want to emphasize that Liverpool, despite finishing in 3rd place,  were in poor form at that time – having just been beaten by an Italian team, Atalanta, 3-1 on aggregate in the UEFA Europa League.. Liverpool were big favourites to qualify for the semi-final..

Luton lost to West Ham 1-3 away from home their last game and there is no denying that it was a disappointing performance! However I will not overreact to it. We must realize that West Ham played their best game for a very long time and were – of course – very clear favourites in this game – priced around 1.80-1.85 to win by the bookies. Before this Luton played well at home as slim underdogs on the betting market. However, it was a 1-1 draw. Luton recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off goal as well as attacks than Everton. In round 35 Luton challenged Wolves on the road as clear underdogs and could - with a hint of luck – have even won. Indeed, they recorded more shots on goal, attacks (108-86) and dangerous attacks – 47-34 to be precise. The xG numbers were 1.23-1.03 in the hosts' favour though.

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卢顿对富勒姆

北京时间周日晚，英超联赛第38轮，卢顿主场迎战富勒姆。这是这个星球上最好的联赛!尽管本赛季没有一支英格兰球队进入欧冠或欧联杯决赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。足球迷和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看有点低的比赛。然而，我们已经在这个联赛中连续赢得了惊人的10个选秀权，并且在这里还有另一场非常有希望的比赛-我的意思是博彩方面。为了娱乐，我建议我的球迷再看一场比赛。我将在周日的英超比赛中发布更多的选择!这是英超联赛的第38轮，也是最后一轮。没有多少球队有太多的比赛要踢——从欧足联俱乐部比赛的资格来看——或者下赛季降级到英冠。这也是这里的情况。事实上，卢顿已经失去了真正的保级机会，下赛季将重返英冠。这一点都不奇怪，我们可以说卢顿能够保住他们在英超的位置是出乎意料的。即便如此，他们本赛季仍然打得相当不错——考虑到他们的阵容有限，至少可以说，在这个水平上。他们目前在联赛中排名第18位，总共有20家俱乐部。在赛季开始之前，他们就被大多数博彩公司和足球记者——包括我自己——评为联赛中最差的球队。然而，事实并非如此，博彩公司应该更加尊重他们。卢顿已经超出了预期，拿到了26分。而且，它们的期望值(xPTS)明显更高——准确地说是32.45。他们进了令人惊讶的多球——50个——比一支更大的球队埃弗顿多进了11个球!他们的后防线缺乏这种水平所需要的个人技术，他们丢了太多的球——准确地说是81个。是的，他们的后卫确实尽了最大的努力，但很难对他们的防守做出任何积极的评价。

我希望这是一场轻松而有攻击性的比赛——期望进球比博彩公司估计的要大。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。在分析这款游戏时，理解这一点非常重要。倒数三名的球队将被降级。卢顿与诺丁汉相差3分，排在第17位，但诺丁汉的积分差是19分。卢顿的净胜球是-31。这意味着卢顿有超过99.99%的可能性重返英冠。奇迹当然会发生在卢顿，我们可以问问自己——为什么卢顿不能从开球开始就全力以赴?卢顿是这个级别的小俱乐部，但有忠实而响亮的球迷，我相信球员们都想在这里发挥出最好的水平——感谢球迷们在这个充满挑战的赛季中给予的巨大支持——或者我们应该说这是一次难忘的最高水平的冒险。在英格兰——以及许多其他足球大国——在最后一个主场取得好成绩被普遍认为是非常重要的!在我超过23年的职业足球博彩中，我意识到博彩公司和娱乐博彩者经常不能给予这个因素的重视!富勒姆并不是一支伟大的球队，从上赛季他们非常幸运的xPTS(+15.11分)来看，他们明显下降了。他们在积分榜上稳居第14位。富勒姆目前有44分。它们的xpt数量甚至更少——准确地说是42.04个。他们有51次进球，丢了59个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)要大得多，为67.87。卢顿肯定能在这里创造很多得分机会。

让我们记住富勒姆本赛季在客场表现很差，在联赛的18场客场比赛中只赢了3场。他们在这些比赛中的比分差距非常小——20:35。此外，预计将有相对较少的客队球迷到场。考虑到预期的阵容——考虑到重要的动力因素——富勒姆在这里应该只是一个边缘热门。拥有最大赌注限制的最大博彩公司不同意这种说法。在北京时间周五晚上发布这篇文章时，客场获胜的赔率仅为2.15左右。卢顿挽回败局显然是明智的选择!卢顿将失去安德森、贝尔、布朗、卡博雷、洛克耶、纳卡姆巴和波茨——由于不同种类的伤病，巴克利是值得怀疑的。至于富勒姆，迪奥普因为之前的红牌而缺阵，而吕基奇则值得怀疑。两队都陷入了困境

R形式。事实上，东道主在最近10场比赛中只赢了一场，客队赢了两场。然而，卢顿，根据我的消息来源，有一个伟大的团队精神-尽管所有的斗争本赛季…今年春天他们一直在努力战斗!另一方面，富勒姆在4月和5月的许多比赛中看起来都很放松，甚至有些懒散。上一场比赛他们在主场面对曼城，完全被羞辱了!客队在进球次数(16-1)、射正次数(9-1)和角球次数(7-1)大幅增加后以4-0取胜。曼城也记录了更多的总传球、完成传球、进攻和危险进攻。当然，曼城是这场比赛的大热门，但富勒姆在球场上的表现和肢体语言在90分钟的大部分时间里仍然非常糟糕!他们产生了非常可怜的0.08的预期进球(xG)。在此之前，他们面对的是布伦特福德，这是一支本赛季让人有些失望的球队，总的来说，这是一场相当无聊和低水平的比赛。没有进球。在第35轮比赛中，富勒姆在主场与水晶宫展开了激烈的争夺，他们在投注市场上的胜率在2.05-2.10之间。然而，客队的进球次数(14胜9负)、射正、射偏、角球、进攻和危险进攻都更多。xG数字非常平衡，准确地说是1.13-1.11。在第34轮富勒姆主场对阵利物浦的比赛中几乎没有机会，最终1-3输掉了比赛。我想强调的是，利物浦尽管最终排名第三，但当时的状态很差——刚刚在欧联杯中被意大利球队亚特兰大以总比分3-1击败。利物浦队是晋级半决赛的大热门。

卢顿最后一场客场1-3输给了西汉姆，不可否认这是一场令人失望的比赛!但我不会对此反应过度。我们必须意识到西汉姆打出了他们很长一段时间以来最好的一场比赛，并且——当然——在这场比赛中是非常明显的热门——博彩公司的胜率在1.80-1.85左右。在此之前，卢顿在主场打得很好，但在博彩市场上却处于劣势。然而，双方以1比1战平。与埃弗顿相比，卢顿的进球次数、射正、射偏以及进攻次数都要多。在第35轮比赛中，卢顿在客场挑战狼队，他们显然处于劣势，如果运气好的话，他们甚至可能获胜。事实上，他们记录了更多的射门、进攻(108胜86负)和危险进攻(47胜34负)。不过，对东道主有利的xG值是1.23-1.03。