Burnley VS Nottingham Forest

Burnley welcome Nottingham for this English Premier League round 38 clash at Turf Moor late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the best league in the world as a whole. The fact that no English team made it to the UEFA Champions League final this season does not change this fact. Football enthusiasts and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of pretty low by this league's standards. However, we have won a stunning 10 picks in a row betting on this league and have yet another very lucrative game here – betting-wise I mean. For entertainment I recommend my fans to watch another game.. I will be posting several more picks on Sunday's Premier League games. This is the 38th and last round of the Premier League! Not many teams have much to play for left – in terms of qualifying for one of UEFA's club competitions – or being relegated. This is, in reality, the case here as well. Burney have already lost their chances to avoid relegation and will go down to the Championship next season. This is not a surprise at all and we can say that Burnley being able to keep their place in the Premier League would have been unexpected.. Even so, they have still fought reasonably well this season - taking into account that their squad is pretty limited - especially on paper. According to my sources they have a good team spirit - despite the challenging season. Their manager is also highly respected. Burnley are in 19th place at the moment - in this league with a total of 20 clubs. However, they have definitely not been the second-worst team in this league in terms of expected points (xPTS). Indeed, Burnley have 24 points to their account but their number of xPTS is 34.13! They have scored only 40 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is 44.67 which is, of course, still not very high. They played pretty active and aggressive – even risky football for most of the season but started playing more "pragmatic" football in the spring. They lack individual skill and creativity in offense. Their defenders have often tried to give passes and take part in attacking in ways that are, in all honesty, above their normal level.. As a football fan I respect that but perhaps they would have saved themselves by playing very pragmatic and simple - some could say "anti football" .  They did for years in the Premier League but in the 2021-2022 they ran out of luck. Burnley do have the resources to play in the Premier League in the future. Burnley have allowed 76 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is significantly lower 71.34 - to be precise.

If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. This is very important to understand when analysing this game. The bottom-three teams will be relegated. Luton are three points away from Nottingham, in 17th place, but Nottingham's score difference is -19. Luton's goal difference is -31. This means that with a probability of more than 99.99% Nottingham are safe and must feel relaxed  - perhaps even relieved here.. On paper Nottingham are a clearly stronger than Burnley but their season has been disappointing. Nottingham have only 29 points in their pocket but I need to mention that four points were deducted from them by federation decision. They have netted the ball 47 goals and similarly to Burnley, their defence has been leaky. They have allowed 66 goals. Their defensive structure is poor and sometimes some of their players have looked even a little lazy on the pitch – especially in away games. Here I expect a pretty high-scoring and relaxed game. I believe both teams will want to score a few goals and not be 100% focused on defending. Players are also expected to be avoiding injuries and possibly to be a little more selfish - going for goal rather than passing the ball if they have a good scoring chance...  I would not be at all surprised to see Nottingham's manager rotate his squad – perhaps even heavily here. As for Burnley I believe their manager, Belgian ex-player V. Kompany, to field at least close to his best starting eleven.. Burnley have loyal and loud fans and I believe the players want to fight hard here – thanking the fans for their support throughout the gruelling season. In England doing well in the last home is widely considered very important! In my 23 years of professional football betting I have realised that the bookies and recreational bettors often fail to give this factor about emphasis. 

Burnley have been in decent form in the spring, losing only three of the last 10 games. They did, however, lose two of their last matches - against much stronger teams Newcastle (6th) place and Tottenham (5th) place. In round 36 they lost to Newcastle 1-4 at home but Newcastle played a better game than usual. Yes, they deserved to win but Burnley still had 47% goal attempts and recorded an impressive 17 goal attempts. The xG numbers were 1.44-3.11 so the final score flatters Newcastle to some extent. Before this they lost in London as big underdogs on the betting market. Tottenham were priced around 1.30 to win and did so -  2-1. They did generate more in xG and deserved the three points. However, Burnley were not bad – they just met a motivated and a much better team. In round 35 they were, of course, big underdogs at Old Trafford against Man United but took a point through a 1-1 draw - showing great fighting spirit. The hosts recorded only a bit more in xG. 

Nottingham, on the other hand,  have won only two of their last 13 matches! In their last game their performance was okay but lost to Chelsea, one of the biggest disappointments of the the season, 2-3 at home. Before this they beat the horribly bad Sheffield United the rock-bottom team – by a wide margin – 3-1 on the road as very clear favorites according to the bookies. They were priced around 1.70 to win at the time of kickoff. I was not at all impressed with Nottingham in this game. The final score is very misleading!  Indeed, The hosts had 54% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks,. The xG numbers were 2.45-1.77 in the hosts' favour. In round 35 Nottingham faced Manchester City at home but the visitors, despite being oddly nervous and very far from their best on the pitch for most of the 90 minutes, took a 2-0 win after having 67% ball possession. Nottingham did have their chances to score though. Furthermore, in round 34 Nottingham played at a decent level but suffered a 0-2 loss to Everton in Liverpool. Their offense, once again, lacked skill, creativity and passing accuracy at critical moments. I strongly disagree with the bookies here who see the visitors as solid favourites! Indeed, odds on the away win are around 2.30 on the betting market at the time of posting this analysis late Friday evening but with the expected lineups - based on my sophisticated in-depth analysis - this clash as a coin-toss - a 50/50 game without an actual favourite. The Burnley +0.5 goals handicap option is the obvious professional bettors' choice here!

GOOD LUCK!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

伯恩利VS诺丁汉森林

北京时间周日晚，伯恩利将在第38轮比赛中迎来诺丁汉。总的来说，这是世界上最好的联赛。尽管本赛季没有一支英格兰球队进入欧冠决赛，但这并不能改变这一事实。以联赛的标准来看，足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场相当低的比赛。然而，我们已经在这个联赛中连续赢得了惊人的10次选秀权，并且在这里还有另一场非常有利可图的比赛-我的意思是博彩方面。为了娱乐，我建议我的粉丝再看一场比赛。我将在周日的英超比赛中发布更多的选择。这是英超第38轮，也是最后一轮!没有多少球队有太多的比赛要踢——从欧足联俱乐部比赛的资格来看——或者降级。这在现实中也是如此。伯尼已经失去了保级的机会，下赛季将进入英冠联赛。这一点都不奇怪，我们可以说伯恩利能够保住他们在英超的位置是出乎意料的。即便如此，他们本赛季仍然打得相当不错——考虑到他们的阵容相当有限——尤其是在纸面上。根据我的消息来源，他们有很好的团队精神——尽管这个赛季充满挑战。他们的经理也很受人尊敬。伯恩利目前在联赛中排名第19位，总共有20家俱乐部。然而，他们绝对不是联盟中期望得分倒数第二的球队。事实上，伯恩利有24分，但他们的xPTS数是34.13!他们只进了40个球，但他们的预期进球数(xG)是44.67，当然，这仍然不是很高。他们踢得很积极，很有侵略性——在整个赛季的大部分时间里，他们甚至踢得很冒险，但在春季，他们开始踢得更“务实”。他们在进攻中缺乏个人技术和创造力。他们的后卫经常试图传球和参与进攻，老实说，超出了他们的正常水平。作为一个足球迷，我尊重这一点，但也许他们可以通过非常务实和简单的方式来拯救自己——有些人可能会说“反足球”。他们在英超联赛中取得了多年的成功，但在2021-2022赛季，他们运气不佳。伯恩利有足够的资源在未来踢英超。伯恩利丢了76个球，但他们的预期失球(xGA)要低得多，准确地说是71.34个。

如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等，则得分差将成为决胜局。在分析这款游戏时，理解这一点非常重要。倒数三名的球队将被降级。卢顿与诺丁汉相差3分，排在第17位，但诺丁汉的积分差是19分。卢顿的净胜球是-31。这意味着，有超过99.99%的可能性，诺丁汉是安全的，一定会感到放松——也许在这里甚至松了一口气。理论上诺丁汉显然比伯恩利强，但是他们这个赛季的表现令人失望。诺丁汉现在只有29分，但是我需要提到的是，由于联合会的决定，他们被扣了4分。他们打进了47个球，和伯恩利一样，他们的防守漏洞百出。他们丢了66个球。他们的防守结构很差，有时他们的一些球员在球场上看起来甚至有点懒——尤其是在客场比赛中。我期待着一场轻松的高分比赛。我相信两支球队都想要进几个球，而不是100%的专注于防守。球员们也被期望避免受伤，可能会更自私一点——如果他们有一个很好的得分机会，就去进球而不是传球……看到诺丁汉的主教练轮换阵容，我一点也不会感到惊讶——也许在这里会更频繁。至于伯恩利，我相信他们的主教练，比利时前球员V.孔帕尼，至少会派出他最好的11人首发。伯恩利有忠实而响亮的球迷，我相信球员们想在这里努力战斗——感谢球迷们在这个艰苦的赛季中给予的支持。在英国，在最后一个家庭中取得好成绩被普遍认为是非常重要的!在我23年的职业足球博彩生涯中，我意识到，博彩公司和娱乐博彩公司往往不重视这一因素。

伯恩利在春天状态不错，最近10场比赛只输了3场。然而，他们在最近的两场比赛中输掉了两场比赛——对阵比他们强得多的纽卡斯尔(第6名)和热刺(第5名)

． 在第36轮，他们主场1-4不敌纽卡斯尔，但纽卡斯尔踢得比平时好。是的，他们理应获胜，但伯恩利仍然有47%的射门次数，并且有令人印象深刻的17次射门次数。xG的数字是1.44-3.11，所以最终的比分在某种程度上对纽卡斯尔有利。在此之前，他们在伦敦输掉了比赛，在博彩市场上处于劣势。热刺的胜率在1.30英镑左右，结果2:1获胜。他们在比赛中创造了更多的机会，理应得到三分。然而，伯恩利的表现并不差，他们只是遇到了一支更有动力的球队。在第35轮比赛中，他们在老特拉福德对阵曼联的比赛中处于劣势，但他们以1-1的比分取得了一分，表现出了强大的战斗精神。主持人在xG中只多录了一点。

另一方面，诺丁汉在过去的13场比赛中只赢了两场!在上一场比赛中，他们的表现还不错，但在主场以2比3输给了切尔西，这是本赛季最令人失望的比赛之一。在此之前，他们击败了糟糕透顶的谢菲尔德联队，这支排名垫底的球队——以很大的差距——在客场以3-1获胜，这是博彩公司非常看好的球队。开球时，他们的价格在1.70左右。在这场比赛中，我对诺丁汉一点印象都没有。最后的分数很容易误导人!事实上，东道主拥有54%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数、射正次数、射偏次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。对东道主有利的xG值是2.45-1.77。在第35轮比赛中，诺丁汉主场迎战曼城，但客队尽管在90分钟的大部分时间里都异常紧张，远未达到最佳状态，但在控球率为67%的情况下，以2比0取胜。诺丁汉也有进球的机会。此外，在第34轮比赛中，诺丁汉踢得不错，但在利物浦0-2输给了埃弗顿。他们的进攻，再一次，缺乏技术，创造力和传球的准确性在关键时刻。我强烈反对这里的博彩公司把客队看成是绝对的大热门!事实上，在周五晚些时候发布这篇分析时，投注市场上客场获胜的赔率约为2.30，但根据我复杂的深度分析，根据预期的阵容，这场比赛就像掷硬币一样，是一场50/50的比赛，没有真正的热门。伯恩利+0.5个进球障碍选项显然是职业投注者的选择!

好运！