SV Elversberg VS Karlsruher SC

Elversberg host Karlsruher for this German 2. Bundesliga round 34 clash at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde in Spiesen-Elversberg late Sunday evening Beijing time. This is the last round of 2. Bundesliga, which is the second-best 2. tier in the world, after the English Championship. Football enthusiasts and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of somewhat average level by this league's standards. However, we have won an excellent five picks in a row betting on this league and have yet another very interesting match here – betting-wise I mean. A rather offensive and relaxed match is on the cards here. The goal expectancy is a little higher than the bookie estimate. Indeed, the probability of over 3.5 goals to be scored is 58.50 %. Neither team have anything left to play in terms of promotion - or relegation. Players are also expected to be avoiding serious injuries and possibly to be slightly more selfish - going for goal rather than passing the ball to a team mate if they have a promising scoring opportunity. I would not be at all surprised to see Karlruher's head coach rotate his squad – possibly even pretty heavily here. As for the hosts I believe their head coach H. Steffen will field at least most of his players. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the teams are equal, with an estimated total squad market value of some 22 million euros. However, in my expert opinion the Elversberg squad is slightly overvalued. In Germany – and in several other major football countries, for example England - performing well in the very last home is widely considered very important! In my over 23 years of professional football betting I have detected that the bookies and recreational bettors regularly fail to give this factor about emphasis! We, of course, will take advantage of this and place a bet on the home win with the +0.5 goals handicap option. The bookies, rather weirdly, see the visitors as solid favourites – offering them odds of around 2.20-2.25 to take all three points. With the expected lineups and taking the home (and probable) motivation factors into account I see Elversberg as narrow favourites.

By pure class Karlsruher are the better team here, no question about that. If this was say the first match of the season the odds would be more or less correct but no in the last round! Karlsruger are in 5th place, eight points behind Dusseldorf who will face a Bundesliga team in a battle for the place in the first tier next season. They were fighting hard for the 3rd place for quite a long time but were simply not good enough. They must be very disappointed to realize this.. Their offense has a good structure and some skilled individuals and have netted the ball 65 times. However, their number of expected goals (xG) was "only" 60.12. Their defence was not solid enough – their defenders made too many silly mistakes. They conceded 48 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) was even a bit higher. Elversberg played better than i expected from a newly-promoted team. They are in 11th place with 43 points. They will have to improve their defence for next season to challenge for a top-10 place. They have conceded 60 goals but their number of xGA is still a bit lower – 57.12 to be precise. Both teams lost their last game. Karlsruher faced Hannover at home as pretty clear favourites on the betting marker but were disappointing – losing 1-2. The visitors generated more in xG – 1.94-1.66 to be precise. Before this they won a lot of games as they were chasing 3rd place.. However, they had a lot of luck in many games.. Elverdberg were far from their best in their last game, losing to Nurnberg 0-3 on the road. Yes, the hosts wanted to play for their fans and did deserve to win. However, the final score is still misleading. The xG numbers were 1.89-0.55.

埃尔弗斯伯格VS卡尔斯鲁厄

埃尔弗斯伯格为卡尔斯鲁厄主持了这场德国比赛。北京时间周日晚，德甲联赛第34轮比赛将在施皮森-埃尔弗斯贝格的凯撒林德森林球场进行。这是第二轮的最后一轮。德甲是第二好的。排名世界第一，仅次于英格兰联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。然而，我们已经在这个联赛中连续赢得了五次出色的选择，并且在这里还有另一场非常有趣的比赛-我的意思是博彩方面。这将是一场相当激烈而轻松的比赛。预期进球略高于博彩公司的估计。事实上，进球超过3.5个的概率是58.50%。两支球队在升降级方面都没有什么可做的了。球员们也被期望避免严重的伤病，可能会稍微自私一点——如果他们有一个很有希望得分的机会，他们会主动进球，而不是把球传给队友。如果卡尔鲁厄的主教练轮换他的阵容，我一点也不会感到惊讶——甚至可能在这里非常频繁。至于东道主，我相信他们的主教练H.斯蒂芬至少会派出他的大部分球员。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，两支球队的市值相当，估计总市值约为2200万欧元。然而，在我看来，埃尔弗斯伯格的阵容有点被高估了。在德国——以及其他几个足球大国，比如英格兰——在最后一个主场表现出色被普遍认为是非常重要的!在我超过23年的职业足球投注中，我发现博彩公司和娱乐投注者经常不重视这一因素!当然，我们将利用这一点，并以+0.5个进球的障碍选项打赌主场获胜。奇怪的是，博彩公司将客队视为大热门，开出2.20-2.25的赔率来包揽全部三分。考虑到预期的阵容和主场(和可能的)动机因素，我认为埃尔弗斯伯格是一个狭窄的热门。

从纯粹的等级来看，卡尔斯鲁厄是这里更好的球队，这是毫无疑问的。如果这是本赛季的第一场比赛，赔率或多或少是正确的，但在最后一轮没有!卡尔斯鲁格目前排名第五，落后杜塞尔多夫8分，杜塞尔多夫将在下赛季与德甲球队争夺第一名的位置。他们为第三名奋斗了很长一段时间，但就是不够好。他们意识到这一点一定很失望。他们的进攻有良好的结构和一些技术娴熟的人，有65次进球。然而，他们的预期目标数(xG)“仅”为60.12。他们的防守不够稳固——他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的错误。他们丢了48个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)甚至更高。埃尔弗斯伯格打得比我预期的好。他们以43分排名第11位。他们必须在下赛季提高他们的防守来挑战前十的位置。他们已经丢了60个球，但是他们的场均进球数仍然稍低，准确地说是57.12。两队都输了最后一场比赛。卡尔斯鲁厄在主场面对汉诺威，在投注市场上是很明显的热门，但令人失望的是- 1-2输掉了比赛。访问者在xG - 1.94-1.66中产生更多。在此之前，他们在追逐第三名的时候赢了很多比赛。然而，他们在许多比赛中运气都很好。埃尔弗德堡在上一场比赛中远未达到最佳状态，客场0-3不敌纽伦堡。是的，东道主想要为他们的球迷而战，他们确实应该获胜。然而，最终的分数仍然具有误导性。xG值为1.89 ~ 0.55。