Season finale in Spain tonight and two teams, Real Madrid and Villarreal, will have a match, where the draw has 0 value to both.

Real is in a must-win situation as only 3 points will give them a chance of taking over city rivals Atletico in 1st spot. The positive moment for Zidane is the advantage his team has in

case of level points with Atletico - Real will be ahead due to better head-to-head balance.

However, it is very hard to see Atletico slip in their game against relegation bound Valladolid.

This said, realistically Real’s chances for the crown are very very slim. Their effort in recent weeks deserves applause, but some lost points earlier in the season have cost them dearly.

For Villarreal the motivation is clear as day - they must win and hope either Betis or Sociedad lose points in their games. Unai Emery’s men must be interested in finishing inside Europa League zone (5-6 positions) and avoiding the spooky Conference League, which they are currently qualified for with their 7th place.

Draw here is very unlikely to help as on level points with Betis (also 58 points at the moment), Villarreal finishes behind due to their worse head-to-head record.

Given all of the above, I see significant value in away win odds. Since you can pretty much exclude the “draw” as outcome of this match, it leaves us with 2 options - either going with a desperate title contender, or a decent Europa League finalist, who smashed Sevilla a week ago (4-0). You may get better value for an away win when or if Real takes a 1-0 lead.

This is the sort of trade I widely practice myself across European leagues at the end of season - you can, of course, play it safe and take Villarreal with a +1.5 handicap, but the odds for straight win at 6.8 are too good for me.