Lugano VS Winterthur

Lugano and Winterthur lock horns in this Swiss Super League Championship Group round 36 battle at Stadio di Cornaredo very early Friday morning Beijing time. The level of this league is slightly better than average by European standards. Football enthusiasts and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of much better than average level by this league's standards. The stakes are high for both teams here - at least on paper..  Both teams have three more games left to play.. Lugano are in 2nd place with a fine 62 to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is even a little higher. They have netted the ball an impressive 62 times but still cannot match the dominant team, Young Boys, in terms of offensive quality. They have an excellent offensive structure but sometimes lack some creativity and speed when facing teams that defend in a very organized way. However, the Winterthur defence is pretty leaky. They have allowed 61 goals, the hosts have allowed 45 goals. Lugano's number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 42.12. The visitors have scored surprisingly many goals – 57 to be precise – but their number of expected goals is significantly lower. The top-2 teams qualify for the UEFA Champions League qualification for next season. This should be a huge extra motivation for Lugano and in front of their fans I expect them to put huge pressure on the visitors' defence right from the kickoff - leaving everything they have on the pitch in front of their pretty loud fans. Winterthur are in 6th place – the teams who finish in 4th and 5th place will earn a ticket for the UEFA Europa Conference League for next season. Mathematically they do have a chance but Zurich, a much better team than Winterthur, have five points more in their pocket. I suspect they are having a hard time really believing in their chances..

Even excluding the (extra) motivation factor Lugano are the much better team here and have an edge over the visitors in all areas of the game. Odds of around 1.60 are widely available on the betting market and we will eagerly take it! Let's also remember that Lugano have won three of the last four games between the two teams. The teams last locked horns on the 6th of April and it was a 2-2 draw in Winterthur. However, Lugano had 57% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal and shots off target. They also generated 1.56 in xG – the hosts managed only 0.67. Lugano have been in awesome form this spring – winning 11 of their last 13 games! In their last match they even beat Young Boys 1-0 on the road! The hosts, of course the clear favourites, had many more goal attempts but Lugano defended in a superb way! Both teams generated only 0.98 in xG. Before this they were very unlucky to lose to St. Gallen 0-1 at home. Lugano had a whopping 70% ball possession and recorded an impressive 21 goal attempts - St. Gallen's number was eight.. Lugano also recorded many more shots on goal, attacks and dangerous attacks than the visitors. At the time of kickoff Lugano were only very marginal favourites on the betting market so the loss was as such was nothing to be ashamed of. Winterthur have lost their form completely – losing four games in a row! In their lost game they lost to Zurich 1-3 at home. Most bookies saw this match as more or less as a coin toss. The hosts had 57% ball possession but Zurich recorded many more goal attempts (6-3) as well as dangerous attacks. Moreover, the visitors generated 1.55 in xG – Winterthur managed only 1.04.

卢加诺VS温特图尔

北京时间周五凌晨，卢加诺和温特图尔将在瑞士超级联赛小组赛第36轮在科纳雷多球场展开激战。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平略高于平均水平。按照联赛的标准，足球爱好者和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场比平均水平好得多的比赛。两支球队的赌注都很高——至少在纸面上。两队还剩下三场比赛要打。卢加诺以62分的罚款排名第二。他们的期望值(xPTS)甚至更高一些。他们有62次进球，令人印象深刻，但在进攻质量方面仍然无法与统治队年轻男孩队相提并论。他们拥有出色的进攻结构，但在面对有组织防守的球队时，有时缺乏创造力和速度。然而，温特图尔防线漏洞百出。他们丢了61球，东道主丢了45球。卢加诺的预期失球数(xGA)为42.12。客队打进了惊人的多球——确切地说是57球——但他们的预期进球数要低得多。前两名的球队有资格参加下赛季的欧洲冠军联赛。这对卢加诺来说应该是一个巨大的额外动力，在他们的球迷面前，我希望他们从开球开始就给客队的防守施加巨大的压力——在他们吵闹的球迷面前留下他们在球场上的一切。温特图尔排名第6，排名第4和第5的球队将获得下赛季欧联杯的入场券。从数学上讲，他们确实有机会，但苏黎世，一支比温特图尔强得多的球队，他们的口袋里多了5分。我怀疑他们很难真正相信自己的机会。

即使排除(额外的)动机因素，卢加诺在这里的表现也要好得多，在比赛的各个方面都比客队有优势。大约1.60的赔率在投注市场上广泛可用，我们将热切地接受它!让我们记住卢加诺在两队之间的最近四场比赛中赢了三场。两队上一次交锋是在4月6日，双方在温特图尔以2比2战平。然而，卢加诺有57%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数、射正次数和射偏次数。他们在xG中也生成了1.56，而主机只生成了0.67。卢加诺今年春天的状态非常棒，在过去的13场比赛中赢了11场!在上一场比赛中，他们甚至在客场以1比0击败了年轻男孩队!东道主，当然是最受欢迎的球队，有更多的进球尝试，但卢加诺的防守非常出色!两支球队在xG上的得分都只有0.98。在此之前，他们非常不幸地在主场0-1输给了圣加仑队。卢加诺的控球率高达70%，并且有令人印象深刻的21次射门，而圣加仑只有8次。卢加诺的射门、进攻和危险进攻也比客队多。在开球的时候，卢加诺在博彩市场上只是非常小的热门，所以输掉比赛并没有什么可羞愧的。温特图尔完全失去了状态——连输四场!在他们输掉的比赛中，他们主场1-3输给了苏黎世。大多数博彩公司认为这场比赛或多或少就像掷硬币一样。主队有57%的控球率，但苏黎世的进球次数更多(6比3)，而且进攻也很危险。此外，在xG，访客产生了1.55个，而温特图尔只产生了1.04个。