Chivas Guadalajara VS Club America

Chivas host Club America for this Liga MX Clausura Playoffs 1st leg clash at Estadio Akron in Zapopank at Thursday morning Beijing time. This is the highest level of Mexican football. The level of this league is pretty by global standards. Football enthusiasts and us serious bettors can expect a match of very high level by the league's standards here. We have achieved good results betting on this league with a pretty number of goals per game on average. The stakes are high here and I expect a pretty defensive, perhaps even cautious game. Neither team will surely want to avoid risks as ending up trailing by a margin of one goal after the 1st leg would make qualifying for the final difficult.. Chivas finished in 6th place after the regular season which was a slight disappointment to me. I see them having potential for improvement. In front of their loud and loyal fans they have every chance of beating the visitors. Chivas took 31 points and had a good score difference of 24:17. Their number of expected goals (xG) was 27.67. Club America topped the standings but were worse than in the Apertura 2023. They managed to take only four more points than the hosts. With the expected lineups they are of course the better team in terms of pure class – mainly thanks to big offensive power.. They have a few very  dangerous offensive players but the Chivas defenders make very few silly mistakes and could succeed in "suffocating" the visitors offense here!  However, the challenge for Chivas is huge as Club America netted the ball 30 times during the regular season. Their number of xG was "only" 27.12 though.

Chivas have lost only one game at home in the regular season and at Estadio Akron they are - in my expert opinion - only very marginal underdogs with the expected lineups. The bookies disagree – offering Club America odds of only around 2.30-2.40 to win. We will take the Chivas +0.5 goals handicap option. Let's keep in mind that the hosts have not lost any of their last 10 games – winning 7/10! In their last game they did what was necessary – forcing Toluca to a goalless draw away from home. Chivas were priced around 4.30 to win this match on the betting market.. In the 1st leg Chivas won 1-0. It was a very defensive and rather boring game as a whole. Either team could have taken the win.. In the last round of the regular season Chivas defended very well – once again - and beat Atlas 1-0 on the road. They had 67% ball possession and allowed Atlas only 0.33 in xG. Chivas' number was 1.22. Club America have won only one of their last seven matches and there have been some rumors of suboptimal team spirit.. They would have to improve to beat Chivas in the first leg. However, at home I expect them to be in control of the events on the pitch in front of their demanding fans..  In their last game it was a 1-1 draw at home against Pachuca. In the first leg of the Playoffs matchup Club America were priced around 2.10-2.20 to win by the bookies but Pachuca would have deserved a win as they recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target, corner kicks and dangerous attacks. Before this they also played against Pachuca in the CONCACAF Champions clash and lost 1-2 away from home as solid favourites. Pachuca recorded more goal attempts (19-7), shots on goal and shots off target. In the last round of Liga MX Clausura Club America beat a very bad team, Puebla, 2-1 away from home as big favourites – priced around 1.45 to win on the betting market. I was far from impressed with the visitors' performance.. The hosts even had more shots on goal! The xG numbers were, very surprisingly, pretty balanced - 0.46-0.63 to be precise. I want to emphasize that Puebla took only five points (!) and were the rock-bottom team – by a huge margin to Atlas!

瓜达拉哈拉芝华士VS美国俱乐部

北京时间周四上午，芝华士主场迎战美洲俱乐部，在Zapopank的阿克伦球场进行西甲联赛附加赛首回合的交锋。这是墨西哥足球的最高水平。以全球标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当高。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的投注者可以期待一场按照联赛标准非常高水平的比赛。我们在这个联赛中取得了不错的成绩，平均每场都有相当多的进球。这里的赌注很高，我预计这是一场相当防御性的比赛，甚至可能是谨慎的比赛。两支球队肯定都不想避免风险，因为首回合落后一球将使晋级决赛变得困难。芝华士在常规赛结束后排名第六，这对我来说有点失望。我认为他们有改进的潜力。在他们喧闹而忠诚的球迷面前，他们完全有机会击败客队。芝华士拿下31分，分差为24:17。他们的预期进球数(xG)为27.67。美洲俱乐部排名第一，但比2023年的Apertura还要差。他们只比东道主多拿了4分。凭借预期的阵容，他们当然是纯粹的阶级更好的球队——主要是由于强大的进攻力量。他们有一些非常危险的进攻球员，但芝华士的后卫很少犯愚蠢的错误，他们可以成功地“窒息”客队的进攻!然而，对于芝华士来说，挑战是巨大的，因为美洲俱乐部在常规赛中有30次进球。然而，他们的xG数量“只有”27.12。

芝华士在常规赛中只在主场输过一场，而在阿克伦球场，他们——以我的专家观点——在预期的阵容下只是非常微弱的劣势。博彩公司不同意——美国俱乐部的赔率只有2.30-2.40左右。我们将采用芝华士+0.5球的差点选项。让我们记住，东道主在过去的10场比赛中没有输过一场——7胜10负!在上一场比赛中，他们做了必要的事情——迫使托卢卡在客场0比0逼平。在博彩市场上，芝华士以4.30的价格赢得这场比赛。第一回合，芝华士1-0获胜。这是一场防守性很强的比赛，整体上也很无聊。任何一个队都有可能获胜。在常规赛的最后一轮，芝华士防守非常好，再次在客场1-0击败阿特拉斯。他们有67%的控球率，只给阿特拉斯0.33的射门机会。芝华士的数字是1.22。美洲俱乐部最近七场比赛只赢了一场，有传言说他们的团队精神欠佳。他们必须提高才能在首回合击败芝华士。然而，在主场，我希望他们能够在他们苛刻的球迷面前控制球场上的事件。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场1-1战平帕丘卡。在季后赛第一回合的比赛中，博彩公司对美洲俱乐部的胜率定价在2.10-2.20左右，但帕丘卡本应获得胜利，因为他们的进球次数、射正、射偏、角球和危险进攻都更多。在此之前，他们也曾在中北美洲和加勒比海地区的冠军联赛中对阵帕丘卡，但在客场1-2输掉了比赛。帕丘卡的进球次数(19胜7负)、射正和射偏次数更多。在上一轮的西甲联赛中，美洲俱乐部客场2-1击败了一支非常糟糕的球队普埃布拉，成为最大的热门球队，在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.45。我对客队的表演一点也不满意。东道主甚至有更多的射门机会!非常令人惊讶的是，xG数据非常平衡——准确地说是0.46-0.63。我想强调的是，普埃布拉只拿了5分(!)，是垫底的球队——与阿特拉斯相差甚远!