Emmen VS Dordrecht

Emmen and Dordrecht lock horns in this Dutch Eredivisie Relegation Playoffs quarter-finals 1st leg at De Oude Meerdijk very early Wednesday morning Beijing time. Yes, officially this is Relegation Playoffs but in reality both teams have played in the Eerste Divisie, the second level of Dutch football, this season. The level of this league is pretty good by European standards – for a second tier I mean. Football fans and us serious profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of high level by the Eerste Divisie standards. The stakes are high and I expect a more defensive, perhaps even a bit cautious clash here. Both will surely try to avoid (too) big risks – to avoid losing this game by a margin of more than two goals. In this situation the chances of qualifying would be very narrow .Emmen have had a somewhat disappointing season as a whole. Indeed, they finished in 7th place after the regular season. They managed to grab a total of 57 points. Furthermore, their number of expected points (xPTS) was even a bit lower. They cannot match the visitors in any area of the game. Indeed, Emmen netted the ball only 59 times. For example Jong PSV, who finished in 16th place, scored 63 goals! Emmen allowed 60 goals and their defenders have kept making too many silly mistakes throughout the season – against the top-6 teams in particular.

With the expected lineups the visitors deserve to be solid favourites here. The bookies seem to disagree – the majority of the biggest bookies see the game as a coin toss – offering both teams odds of around 2.60 to win. Dordrecht +0.5 goals is the obvious smart bet here! They ended up in 4th place and played a better team than I would have expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. They took a total of 69 points and scored a whopping 74 goals! Only Willem II scored more goals! Dordrecht have many different ways to break the opponent's defence which makes it hard for the opponent to defend successfully. Their midfielders can be, when needed, very active in attacking.. Their defence has not been rock-solid but it's still better than Emmen's. The Dordrecht defence has no obvious strengths or weaknesses. However, I believe now that the stakes are sky-high they can raise their level significantly in this area of the game. They have allowed 51 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 46.56. Dordrecht have been in amazing form for a long time already – not losing any of their last 13 games. Moreover, they have won eight of these 13 matches. 

In their last game the visitors were not at their best and it was a 1-1 draw on the road against Jong Utrecht. However, they clearly had their focus on the Emmen game(s) already.. Even so, Dordrecht generated more than the hosts in expected goals (xG) 1.89-1.33. Emmen have won four of their last seven games but have now won four matches in a row. However, they have had some luck in some of these four games. In their last game they beat De Graafschap 2-1 at home as clear favourites but the visitors had 65% ball possession and recorded many more attacks and dangerous attacks. Both teams had nine goal attempts. Before this they beat Den Bosch on the road as solid favourites on the betting market 2-1. However, the hosts recorded many more goal attempts (14-9), shots on goal, corner kicks (11-3) as well as dangerous attacks – 73-45 to be precise. The xG numbers were 1.86-0.64 in the hosts' favor and they should have won the game!

埃门VS多德雷赫特

北京时间周三凌晨，埃门和多德雷赫特将在荷甲保级决赛1 / 4决赛首回合在老梅尔迪克球场展开较量。是的，这是正式的降级季后赛，但实际上这两支球队本赛季都参加了荷兰足球的二级联赛——乙级联赛。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是相当不错的——我的意思是，对于一个二线球队来说。足球迷和我们这些极度渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场按照英超联赛标准的高水平比赛。赌注很高，我希望这里的冲突更具防御性，甚至可能有点谨慎。双方肯定都会尽量避免(太)大的风险——避免以超过两个球的差距输掉这场比赛。在这种情况下，出线的机会将非常渺茫。埃门整个赛季都有些令人失望。事实上，他们在常规赛结束后排名第七。他们总共拿到了57分。此外，他们的期望值(xPTS)甚至更低一些。他们在比赛的任何领域都无法与客队匹敌。事实上，埃门只有59次进球。例如，排在第16位的容埃因霍温就进了63球!埃门丢了60个球，他们的后卫在整个赛季都犯了太多愚蠢的错误——尤其是对阵前6名的球队。

凭借预期的阵容，客队理应在这里成为最受欢迎的球队。博彩公司似乎不同意这种说法——大多数最大的博彩公司将这场比赛视为掷硬币——两队的获胜几率都在2.60左右。多德雷赫特+0.5球显然是明智的选择!他们最终以第四名的成绩结束了比赛，比我在季前赛的深入分析中所预期的要好。他们总共得了69分，进了74个球!只有威廉二世进的球更多!多德雷赫特有许多不同的方法来打破对手的防守，这使得对手很难成功防守。在需要的时候，他们的中场可以在进攻中非常活跃。他们的防守不是坚如磐石，但仍然比埃门强。多德雷赫特的防线没有明显的优势或弱点。然而，我相信现在的赌注是极高的，他们可以在游戏的这个领域显著提高自己的水平。他们丢了51个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是46.56个。多德雷赫特队已经保持了很长一段时间的惊人状态，他们最近的13场比赛没有输过一场。此外，他们在这13场比赛中赢了8场。

客队在上一场比赛中状态不佳，客场1-1战平了乌得勒支。然而，他们显然已经把注意力放在了《Emmen》游戏上。即便如此，多德雷赫特在预期进球数(xG)上还是超过了东道主1.89比1.33。埃门在过去的7场比赛中赢了4场，但现在已经连续赢了4场。然而，他们在这四场比赛中的一些比赛中有一些运气。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场2-1击败了德格拉夫沙普，但客队控球率为65%，进攻和危险进攻也更多。两队都有9次射门机会。在此之前，他们在客场以2比1击败登博斯，成为博彩市场上最受欢迎的球队。然而，东道主的进球次数(14胜9负)、射门次数、角球次数(11胜3负)以及危险进攻次数(准确地说是73胜45负)要多得多。比分是1.86比0.64，东道主应该赢得比赛!