In my opinion has a bigger chance to win this game than bookies want to suggest for us based on their odds. I see excellent value on home side here.

Valencia has a big mental advantage before this game as they won in 7 of their last 8 home matches against Deportivo Alaves.

I see big difference between both teams in terms of motivation to win this game. Valencia is only 4 points behind top6 so for sure team will give absolutely everything to make 3 points today and keep alive their chances to play in European Cups next year. On the other hand, Alaves is at safe place, 12 points above relegation zone and basically they are playing for nothing till the end of the season.

After recording 7 points in 3 rounds with 3 clean sheets in a row, Valencia lost last two matches, but they played against two teams from top7. In addition to that, both matches were very close (1.14 vs 1.28 expected goals scored against Betis and 2.13 vs 2.22 against Barcelona). Despite bad results, Valencia played well and have all the required tools to bounce back on the good track, especially in front of their home crowd. In current season Valencia went unbeaten in 13 of the 16 home league matches and conceded only 10 goals in the process. On the other hand, Alaves is horrible team on the road. In current season they lost 9 of their 16 away league matches and scored only 11 goals in the process.

Valencia today have one new absence - first goalkeeper Mamardashvili is unavailable, but there are also positive news. There is possibility for comeback of two important players - defender Gaya and striker Yaremchuk. Alaves have one new absence - their best defender Duarte is unavailable.

In those circumstances I see excellent value on Valencia.

在我看来，赢得这场比赛的机会比庄家根据赔率给我们的建议要大。我在主场看到了巨大的价值。

瓦伦西亚在这场比赛之前有很大的心理优势，因为他们在最近8场主场对阵拉科鲁尼亚的比赛中赢了7场。

我看到两支球队在赢得这场比赛的动力方面有很大的不同。瓦伦西亚只落后前6分4分，所以可以肯定的是，球队会尽一切努力拿到3分，以保住明年参加欧洲杯的机会。另一方面，阿拉维斯处于安全的位置，比降级区高出12分，基本上他们在赛季结束前都是白打。

连续3场零封，3轮积7分的瓦伦西亚虽然在最近2场比赛中失利，但他们与2支排名前7的球队交手。除此之外，两场比赛都非常接近(对贝蒂斯的预期进球数为1.14比1.28，对巴塞罗那的预期进球数为2.13比2.22)。尽管结果很糟糕，瓦伦西亚踢得很好，并且拥有所有必要的工具来反弹到好的轨道上，特别是在他们的主场观众面前。本赛季，瓦伦西亚在16场主场比赛中有13场保持不败，只丢了10个球。另一方面，阿拉维斯是一支糟糕的客场球队。本赛季，他们在16场客场比赛中输掉了9场，只进了11个球。

瓦伦西亚今天又有一名球员缺席——主力门将马达什维利无法上场，但也有积极的消息。两名重要球员——后卫加亚和前锋亚雷姆丘克有可能复出。阿拉维斯有一个新的缺阵——他们最好的后卫杜阿尔特缺阵。

在这种情况下，我认为瓦伦西亚很有价值。