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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A FINE match to bet on! $$$ 荷甲 阿尔克马VS特温特

2024-05-05

比赛分析

荷甲

已完赛

星期日2024-05-05 22:45

解读理由

AZ Alkmaar VS FC Twente Enschede


Alkmaar welcome Twente for this Eredivisie round 32 battle at AFAS Stadion late Sunday evening Beijing time. A total of 34 rounds will be played. The level of this league is high by European standards – but still far from the level of the top-4 leagues. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of very high quality here between these two strong teams!  Betting-wise the match is very lucrative! A total of 34 rounds will be played in the regular season. If teams finish on equal points at the end of the season, score difference will be the tie-breaker. PSV and Feyenoord have already secured their tickets for the UEFA Champions League group stage for the next season. The team that finished in 3rd place will play in the Champions League qualification. The team that ends up in 4th place will play in the UEFA Europa League group stage. Both teams must be very motivated to take 3rd place! Twente have a fine 63 points to their account and are in 3rd place in the standings. They have been even a little better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. The bookies should respect them more.. They have some very skilled individuals in the squad but the key for their success has been the very organized team play -especially solid defending! They have scored 59 goals but their number of expected goals (xG) is 62.11. They have allowed only 31 goals – that is four goals less than Alkmaar. Alkmaar have netted the ball 62 times in this league so far. With the expected lineups we can expect a very balanced and intense game here. The hosts will be without Clasie, Kwakman and de Wit. Lahdo, Martins Indi, Schouten and Zeefuik are questionable. As for the visitors, Boadu is questionable. Alkmaar are in 4th place in the standings with a somewhat disappointing 58 points.

The biggest bookies who accept the largest wagers from customers see the hosts as solid favourites here but I disagree! Based on my sophisticated, mainly data-based analysis Alkmaar are only very marginal favourites here. The obvious smart bet here is the Twente +0.5 goals handicap option! The hosts have been in mediocre form recently, losing two of their last five games. Twente have lost only one of their most recent five games. In their last game they easily beat Almere City at home 3-1. They recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes as well as dangerous attatcks. They allowed Almere City only 0.14 in xG. Before this they lost to Ajax away from home as solid underdogs on the betting market. Ajax recorded one more goal attempt – 8-7 to be precise. In round 29 Twente completely dominated Sittard at home - winning 2-0 after close to 80% ball possession and creating 26 goal attempts. The visitors generated only 0.07 on xG! Alkmaar beat Nijmegen 3-0 away from home in their last game as very clear favourites. However, the hosts had 53% ball possession and even recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 0.77-0.79. Indeed, the final score is extremely misleading and the bookies seemingly give this result too much emphasis.. Before this Alkmaar beat Waalwijk, a lowly team who are in 16th place, 3-2 at home priced around 1.25 to win by the bookies. Yes, they deserved to win but failed to impress me as a whole. Before this they lost two games and their total score difference in these two games was abysmal -1:10! Especially losing to Heracles 0-5 (!!!) as big favourites reflects the fact that not everything is okay with Alkmaar this season..



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阿尔克马尔VS特温特恩斯赫德


阿尔克马尔欢迎特温特参加北京时间周日晚在AFAS球场举行的第32轮联赛。比赛共进行34轮。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛的水平是很高的,但距离前四名联赛的水平还很远。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待这两支强队之间的一场高质量的比赛!从赌博的角度来看,这场比赛是非常有利可图的!常规赛将进行34轮比赛。如果两队在赛季结束时得分相等,则得分差将成为决胜局。埃因霍温和费耶诺德已经拿到了下赛季欧冠小组赛的入场券。获得第三名的球队将参加欧冠资格赛。获得第四名的球队将参加欧联杯小组赛。两支队伍一定都很有动力去拿第三名!特温特积分榜上有63分,目前排名第三。他们甚至比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的还要好一点。博彩公司应该更尊重他们。他们有一些非常有技术的球员,但他们成功的关键是非常有组织的团队比赛,尤其是坚实的防守!虽然打进了59个进球,但预期进球(xG)是62.11个。他们只丢了31个球,比阿尔克马尔少了4个。到目前为止,阿尔克马尔在联赛中打进62球。有了预期的阵容,我们可以期待一场非常平衡和激烈的比赛。主持人将没有克莱西、夸克曼和德威特。Lahdo, Martins Indi, Schouten和Zeefuik都有问题。至于访客,博都是值得怀疑的。阿尔克马尔以令人失望的58分排名第四。

接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司认为东道主是最受欢迎的,但我不同意!根据我复杂的、主要基于数据的分析,阿尔克马尔在这里只是非常不受欢迎。显然明智的选择是特温特+0.5个进球障碍选项!东道主最近表现平平,在最近五场比赛中输了两场。特温特最近五场比赛只输了一场。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场3-1轻松击败了阿尔米尔城队。他们记录了更多的进球尝试、射门、角球、总传球、完成传球以及危险的进攻。他们只让阿尔米尔城0.14分。在此之前,他们在客场输给了阿贾克斯,在博彩市场上他们是绝对的弱者。阿贾克斯又有一次进球尝试,准确地说是8-7。在第29轮比赛中,特文特在主场完全控制了西塔尔德,在控球率接近80%的情况下,特文特2-0获胜,并创造了26次进球机会。访问者在xG上仅生成0.07 !在上一场比赛中,阿尔克马尔客场3-0击败奈梅亨,成为夺冠热门。然而,主队有53%的控球率,甚至记录了更多的射门次数、射偏次数、角球次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。xG值为0.77 ~ 0.79。的确,最终比分极具误导性,博彩公司似乎过于强调这个结果。在此之前,阿尔克马尔在主场以3比2击败排名第16位的低水平球队瓦勒维克,博彩公司的胜率约为1.25。是的,他们理应获胜,但整体上没能给我留下深刻印象。在此之前,他们输了两场比赛,这两场比赛的总比分差是可怕的-1:10!尤其是0-5输给赫拉克勒斯(!!),这反映了阿尔克马尔这个赛季并不是一切都好。

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