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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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6/6 last WON in the Serie A! $$$

2024-05-05

比赛分析

意甲

已完赛

星期日2024-05-05 21:00

解读理由

Verona VS Fiorentina


Verona welcome Fiorentina for this Italian Serie A round 35 battle at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi late Sunday evening Beijing time. A total of 38 rounds will be played. This is the fourth-best league in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of somewhat average quality here between these two teams. However, betting-wise the match is very interesting and we have a great chance of extending the streak of six straight wins betting on this league! Verona currently occupy the 15th place in the standings in this league with a total of 20 clubs. The rock-bottom three teams will be relegated to the Serie B for the next season. Indeed, the stakes are massively high here for Verona here! Udinese, currently 19th place, have taken 26 points, Sassuolo (20th place) have taken 26 points and are still in the fight to avoid relegation. Salernitana with 15 points will be relegated. Frosinone are in the 16th place in the standings. Both Empoli and Frosinone have 31 points in their pocket. Verona's number of expected points (xPTS) is 34.04 and in terms of performances they should not be in the fight to avoid relegation.. Their score difference is 31:45. They do not, in all honesty, have a lot of firepower but their number of expected goals (xG) is still higher. However, Verona lack in particular individual skill in offense to match the top-9 teams.. The hosts defence is reasonably solid without obvious strengths or weaknesses. Fiorentina are, of course, the better team here by pure class. They have an edge over Verona in all areas of the game. However, the difference in class is definitely smaller than the standings would suggest. Fiorentina have grabbed 50 points but their number of xPTS is somewhat smaller. They have netted the ball 50 times and have conceded. However, in reality, their defence is not very solid! Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 49.12!

Fiorentina are currently in 8th place and their chances of making it to the top-7, not to mention top-6 are pretty slim.. The team that finishes in 6th place will earn a ticket for the UEFA Europa League for the next season. The team that ends up in 7th place will play in the UEFA Europa Conference League qualification next season. Lazio, in 7th place have 55 points at the time of posting this analysis. Atalanta (6th) have grabbed 57 points. Both teams are much better than Fiorentina in terms of pure class. Fiorentina have made it all the way to the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinals and the winner of this league will qualify for the Europa League next season! Fiorentina have a genuine chance of winning the Conference League as they beat a Belgian team, Club Brugge KV, 3-2 in the first leg at home on late on Thursday (Italy time). I need to mention that the visitors' Onyedika was sent off in the 61st minute. Without the sending off the match could well have been a draw as Fiorentina had not been overly convincing on the pitch.. Fiorentina were priced around 1.70 to win on the betting market at the time of kickoff. Despite them winning in the end it became clear that they were - once again - overrated by the bookmakers.. Fiorentina's Nzola scored the winning 3-2 goal in injury time.. I want to emphasize that Fiorentina have had only two full days to rest and prepare for this difficult away game.. This is not optimal at all in professional football and the bookies do not seem to give this factor enough emphasis! Verona, on the other hand, last played on the 27th of April. Fiorentina will travel to Belgium next week and I expect their main focus will be in this game.. Some squad rotation by "Viola's" overrated head coach would not be a surprise at all.. Taking this factor, the motivation factor, the (possible) fatigue factor and the substantial home advantage into account we can expect a balanced battle without an actual favourite! The bookies have made yet another mistake – offering Fiorentina odds of only around 2.35 to win. The Verona +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious professional bettor's choice here to win - once again!

I want to remind my fans that Fiorentina have been abysmal on the road in the Serie A recently – winning only 1/7 last away games! This win came against Salernitana, an awful team.. Fiorentina often play too passive football away from home – allowing the opponent to build up too much pressure – especially late into the 2nd half. Before beating Club Brugge Fiorentina beat Sassuolo 5-1 at home and deserved the three points. However, Sassuolo were even worse than usual in this game. The final score substantially flatters Fiorentina. On the 24th of April Atalanta crushed Fiorentina, 4-1 at home in a Coppa Italia (Italian Cup) semifinals second leg battle. Atalanta recorded many more goal attempts (17-9), shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.41-0.49 in Atalanta's favor. Verona lost to Lazio 0-1 on the road as big underdogs – priced around 5.50-6.00 to win by the bookies. Lazio deserved the narrow win as they generated more in xG – 0.88-0.54. However, Verona too had their chances – recording seven goal attempts and 89 attacks. With a hint of luck it could have been a draw.. Before this Verona took an extremely important home win 1-0 over Udinese after a nervous and pretty low-level game. The visitors had 53% ball possession and recorded many goal attempts but Verona defended in an organized way, allowing the visitors only one shot on goal. Verona's number was four. In round 32 Verona played very well - taking a point from Atalanta away from home through a 2-2 draw as huge underdogs – priced around 7.00-7.50 to win on the betting market! Atalanta, very surprisingly, generated only a little more in xG. Both teams had five shots off goal but Atalanta recorded three more goal attempts – 16-13 to be precise. Let's not forget that Atalanta even beat Liverpool, one of the best teams in the world, 3-0 away from home in the Europa League a few weeks ago.



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维罗纳VS佛罗伦萨


北京时间周日晚,维罗纳将在本特戈迪球场迎接佛罗伦萨参加意甲第35轮的比赛。总共将进行38轮比赛。这是世界上第四好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待这两支球队之间的一场质量一般的比赛。然而,在投注方面,这场比赛是非常有趣的,我们有很大的机会延长在这个联赛的六连胜!维罗纳目前在这个联赛中排名第15位,总共有20家俱乐部。排名垫底的三支球队将在下个赛季降级到乙级联赛。确实,这对维罗纳来说是非常重要的!目前排名第19位的乌迪内斯积26分,排名第20的萨索洛积26分,仍在为保级而战。萨莱尼塔纳得到15分将降级。弗罗西诺内在积分榜上排名第16位。恩波利和弗罗西诺内各得31分。维罗纳的预期积分(xPTS)是34.04,从他们的表现来看,他们不应该为保级而战。他们的比分差是31:45。老实说,他们的火力并不强,但他们的预期进球数(xG)仍然更高。然而,维罗纳在进攻方面缺乏特别的个人技术,无法与排名前9的球队相媲美。东道主的防守相当稳固,没有明显的优势和劣势。当然,佛罗伦萨是一支实力更强的球队。他们在比赛的各个方面都比维罗纳有优势。然而,班级的差异肯定比排名所显示的要小。佛罗伦萨已经拿到了50分,但是他们的积分却少了一些。他们打进了50次球并且丢了球。然而,在现实中,他们的防守并不十分稳固!他们的预期进球(xGA)是49.12!

佛罗伦萨目前排名第8,他们进入前7的机会非常渺茫,更不用说前6了。获得第六名的球队将获得下赛季欧联杯的入场券。最终获得第七名的球队将在下赛季参加欧联杯资格赛。在发布这篇分析时,排名第七的拉齐奥有55分。亚特兰大(第6)拿到了57分。两支球队在实力方面都比佛罗伦萨强得多。佛罗伦萨一路杀入欧联杯半决赛,这场联赛的获胜者将有资格参加下赛季的欧联杯!意大利时间11日晚些时候,佛罗伦萨在主场以3比2击败比利时球队布鲁日俱乐部(KV),赢得了联赛冠军的机会。我需要提到的是客队的奥耶迪卡在第61分钟被红牌罚下。如果没有被罚下,这场比赛很可能是平局,因为佛罗伦萨在球场上的表现并不令人信服。在开球时,佛罗伦萨在博彩市场上的胜率为1.70左右。尽管他们最后赢了,但很明显,他们再一次被博彩公司高估了。佛罗伦萨的恩佐拉在伤停补时阶段以3比2的比分赢得了胜利。我想强调的是,佛罗伦萨只有整整两天的休息时间来准备这场艰难的客场比赛。这在职业足球中根本不是最理想的,博彩公司似乎没有给予这个因素足够的重视!另一方面,维罗纳上一次比赛是在4月27日。佛罗伦萨下周将前往比利时,我预计他们的主要注意力将集中在这场比赛上。“紫百合”被高估的主教练的一些阵容轮换根本不会令人惊讶。考虑到这个因素,动力因素,(可能的)疲劳因素和巨大的主场优势,我们可以期待一场没有真正热门的平衡战斗!博彩公司又犯了一个错误——给佛罗伦萨开出的赔率只有2.35左右。维罗纳+0.5个进球障碍显然是职业投注者在这里获胜的选择——再一次!

我想提醒我的球迷,佛罗伦萨最近在意甲的客场表现非常糟糕,最近的客场比赛只赢了1/7 !这场胜利是对Salernitana的,一支糟糕的球队。佛罗伦萨经常在客场踢得太被动,让对手有太多的压力,尤其是在下半场后期。在击败布鲁日俱乐部之前,佛罗伦萨在主场5-1击败萨索洛,理应获得三分。然而,萨索洛在这场比赛中表现得比平时还要糟糕。最后的比分基本上对佛罗伦萨有利。4月24日,在意大利杯比赛中,亚特兰大主场4-1大胜佛罗伦萨

半决赛第二回合之战。亚特兰大的进球次数(17-9)、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。亚特兰大队的预期进球数为2.41-0.49。维罗纳在客场0-1输给了拉齐奥,被认为是不被看好的球队——博彩公司开出的胜率在5.50-6.00左右。拉齐奥在xG - 0.88-0.54的比分中创造了更多的进球,他们理应获得险胜。然而,维罗纳也有机会,他们有7次进球和89次进攻。运气好的话,本来可以打成平局的。在此之前,维罗纳在一场紧张而低水平的比赛后主场1-0战胜乌迪内斯,取得了一场极其重要的胜利。客队有53%的控球率,并有多次进球尝试,但维罗纳防守很有组织,只让客队射门一次。维罗纳的数字是4。在第32轮的比赛中,维罗纳打得非常好——客场2-2战平亚特兰大,从亚特兰大手中拿了一分——在博彩市场上的胜率在7.00-7.50左右!令人惊讶的是,亚特兰大在xG中只产生了一点点。两队都有5次射偏,但亚特兰大队又有3次射门,准确地说是16-13次。让我们不要忘记亚特兰大甚至在几周前的欧联杯客场3-0击败了世界上最好的球队之一利物浦。

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