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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A FINE match to bet on! $$$ 欧罗巴 马赛VS亚特兰大

2024-05-02

比赛分析

欧罗巴

已完赛

星期五2024-05-03 03:00

解读理由

Marseille VS Atalanta


Marseille welcome Atalanta for this UEFA Europa League semi finals first leg clash at Stade Vélodrome early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest one of UEFA's club competitions. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of high quality by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have a very lucrative betting opportunity here! Marseille are a French team, Atalanta come from Italy. Firstly, we must understand that the Italian Serie A is of much better quality than the French Ligue 1. Marseille are playing a very disappointing season in Ligue 1 – they are currently only in the 7th place in the standings. Marseille have only 44 points to their account. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is somewhat higher though . For example a much smaller team, Brest, have taken a whopping 12 points more than Marseille. Atalanta are having a good, but not perfect season, in the Italian Serie A. They currently occupy the 6th place behind Inter, AC Milan, Juventus, Bologna and AS Roma. However, they have grabbed more points than the reigning champions Napoli and last season's runner ups – Lazio! Indeed, Atalanta have taken 57 points and their number of xPTS is a little bigger. Let's also remember that Atalanta are a significantly better team in terms of players' estimated market value – according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. Their squad is valued at a whopping close to 350 million euros The Marseille players' total market value is estimated at some 230 million. Both numbers are more or less correct in my expert opinion.

Atalanta have won three games in a row! In their last game they were strong, beating Empoli 2-0 at home. I want to emphasize that Empoli were very motivated in this game as they are in a fierce battle to avoid relegation! Atalanta recorded many more goal attempts (17-11), shots on goal, corner kicks (8-1), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.45-0.42. Before this Atalanta crushed a dangerous team, Fiorentina, 4-1 at home in a Coppa Italia (Italian Cup) semifinals 2nd leg clash. Atalanta recorded many more goal attempts (17-9), shots on goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. The expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.41-0.49 in Atalanta's favor! On the 21st of April Atalanta were not at their best but still defeated a pretty good team, Monza, 2-1 on the road. They generated moderately more than Monza in xG – 1.67-1.21 to be precise. Marseille, too, have achieved good results lately. They have, however, won just one of their last three games. In their last game they beat Lens 2-1 at home but the visitors had 57% ball possession and also recorded many more goal attempts, shots off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks (113-56) and dangerous attacks. Marseille did, however, generate more in xG. The match could easily have gone either way.. Before this Marseille had to settle for a draw at home against Lens as solid favourites on the betting market. Marseille's Moumbagna was sent off in the 45th minute when the score was 1-1 though. However, I was not fully impressed with Marseille's performance before the red card.. On the 21st of April Marseille played a balanced game away from home against Toulouse (10th place). It was a 2-2 draw in the end. Most bookies see Marseille as narrow favourites here – I disagree and see Atalanta as the more probable winner! We will take the Atalanta +0.5 goals handicap option! They defeated one of the best teams in the world, Liverpool, 3-1 on aggregate in the last round of Europa League! They even won 3-0 in England and should not be intimidated by the loud Marseille fans.



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马赛VS亚特兰大


北京时间周五凌晨,马赛欢迎亚特兰大参加欧联杯半决赛首回合比赛。这是欧足联俱乐部比赛中第二高的比赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场高质量的比赛,以本届比赛的标准来看。最重要的是,我们有一个非常有利可图的赌博机会!马赛是一支法国球队,亚特兰大来自意大利。首先,我们必须明白意甲联赛的质量要比法甲好得多。马赛在法甲踢了一个非常令人失望的赛季,他们目前只排在积分榜的第7位。马赛目前只剩下44分。不过,它们的期望值(xPTS)要高一些。例如一支小得多的球队,布雷斯特,比马赛多拿了12分。亚特兰大在意甲联赛中表现不错,但并不完美。他们目前排在国际米兰、AC米兰、尤文图斯、博洛尼亚和罗马之后,排名第六。然而,他们比卫冕冠军那不勒斯和上赛季的亚军拉齐奥获得了更多的积分!事实上,亚特兰大已经拿到了57分,而且他们的射门得分要多一点。让我们也记住,根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,亚特兰大在球员的估计市场价值方面要好得多。据估计,马赛球员的总市值约为2.3亿欧元。在我看来,这两个数字或多或少是正确的。

亚特兰大已经连赢三场了!在上一场比赛中,他们很强大,在主场2-0击败了恩波利。我想强调恩波利在这场比赛中非常有动力,因为他们正在为保级而战!亚特兰大的进球次数(17胜11负)、射门次数、角球次数(8胜1负)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。预期目标(xG)值为2.45-0.42。在此之前,亚特兰大在意大利杯半决赛第二回合主场4-1击败了危险的球队佛罗伦萨。亚特兰大的进球次数(17-9)、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都更多。亚特兰大队的预期进球数是2.41比0.49 !4月21日,亚特兰大队虽然状态不佳,但仍然在客场以2-1击败了一支相当不错的球队蒙扎队。在xG - 1.67-1.21中,他们比Monza产生了更多的能量。马赛最近也取得了不错的成绩。然而,他们在最近三场比赛中只赢了一场。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场2-1击败了蓝斯,但客队的控球率为57%,而且他们的进球次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数(113比56)和危险进攻次数都要多。然而,马赛在xG中确实产生了更多。这场比赛很容易就会输掉。在此之前,马赛不得不满足于主场与朗斯的平局,因为这是博彩市场上的热门。马赛的蒙巴尼亚在第45分钟被罚下,当时比分是1-1。然而,我对马赛在红牌前的表现并不是很满意。4月21日,马赛在客场对阵图卢兹(第10名)的比赛中取得了平衡。最后双方以2比2战平。大多数博彩公司认为马赛在这里的胜算不大——我不同意,我认为亚特兰大更有可能获胜!我们将采取亚特兰大+0.5个进球障碍选项!他们在欧联杯最后一轮以总比分3-1击败了世界上最好的球队之一利物浦!他们甚至在英格兰以3比0获胜,不应该被吵闹的马赛球迷吓倒。

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