IFK Norrkoping FK VS Elfsborg

Norrkoping and Elfsborg lock horns in this Swedish Allsvenskan round 5 battle at Platinumcars Arena early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Swedish football. The level of this league is of somewhat average level by European standards. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of better than average quality by this league's standards here! Most importantly, we have a very promising betting opportunity here! We have won five picks in a row! Neither team have been impressive so far this season. However, both teams do have quite a lot of potential for improvement.. Last season Elfsborg finished, rather surprisingly, as high as 2nd place. They played better than probably anyone would have expected before the season kicked off. They took a total of 64 points, however they were lucky in very manu games and their number of expected points (xPTS) was only 57.45. Norrkoping, on the other hand, finished in 9th place. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Elfsborg are not significantly the bigger team here in terms of players' estimated total market values. Indeed, the Elfsborg squad has a market value of some 14 million euros, the Elfsborg players are valued at a total of about 18 million euros. Both numbers are more or less correct in my expert opinion. Many of the Elfsborg players played above their average level last season. I would be very surprised to see them place in the top-2 - or even top-3 this season. Sure, Elfsborg are the bigger and better team and have an edge in all areas of the game here. Even so, the current odds on the away win – around 2.15 – are clearly too low! Taking the substantial home advantage into account Elfsborg are only narrow favourites here. The Elfsborg +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here!

Both teams have won one of their last three games. However, Elfsborg have lost two of their last matches. They were very disappointing on Monday (Sweden time) and lost to Kalmar at home 1-2. They will have only two full days to recover and prepare for this tricky game - this is not ideal in professional football. The hosts last too the pitch last Saturday so they should be more fresh the Elfsborg! Elfsborg were priced around 1.60 to beat Kalmar on the betting market. This was yet another example of them being overvalued by the bookies! Kalmar had 59% ball possession but Elfsborg did record more goal attempts -10-7 to be precise. Before this they lost to Hammarby 0-3 on the road as only slim underdogs on the betting market. The hosts deserved the three points as they generated much more in expected goals (xG). However, Elfsborg did have their chances to score too.. Before this they defeated Vasteras 1-0 away from home as pretty clear favourites on the betting market. They were lucky to get all three points though. The hosts had 56% ball possession and recorded more shots off target, corner kicks and attacks. They also generated 1.67 in xG – Elfsborg's number was only 0.48. In round 1 of Allsvenskan they were priced around 1.50-1-53 at home against Varnamo but it was in the end a 2-2 draw. Elfsborg did record more goal attempts - 14-8 – but they seemed to be rather imbalanced on the pitch. Indeed, I was not impressed by their performance as a whole. Norrkoping, on the other hand, were excellent in their last game despite taking only one point against Goteborg on the road. It was a 1-1 draw but Norrkoping were priced around 5.50-5.90 to win by the bookies.. However, Norrkoping generated a whopping 3.34 in xG – the hosts' number was only 1.04! However, I must say that Goteborg do not usually defend this poorly.. Norrkoping had 53% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (13-7), shots on goal (8-4), shots off target, attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this Norrkoping were not at their best but beat GAIS 1-0 at home – mainly thanks to very solid defending. Indeed, Norrkoping's attacks were often too slow and predictable in this game - making it easy for the opponent to organize the defence.. The visitors however, had chosen a very defensive tactic and defended better than usual. However, GAIS only generated 0.37 in xG and had just two shots on goal. Both Norrkoping and Elfsborg have only four points to their account but Elfsborg do have a little better goal difference. I expect Norrkoping to be pretty defensive here as they still have some work to do with their offense.. Elfsborg's offense has not impressed either - they have scored four goals in this league so far. The goal expectancy here is lower than the bookies estimate. Indeed, the probability of under 2.5 total goals is 53.50%.

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IFK诺雪平FK VS埃尔夫斯堡

北京时间周五凌晨，诺雪平和埃尔夫斯堡在瑞典阿尔斯温斯坎的第五轮比赛中交手。这是瑞典足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平属于中等水平。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平更好的比赛!最重要的是，我们在这里有一个非常有前途的赌博机会!我们已经连续赢了五次了!本赛季到目前为止，这两支球队都没有令人印象深刻的表现。然而，两支球队都有很大的改进潜力。上个赛季，Elfsborg出人意料地获得了第二名。在赛季开始之前，他们的表现可能比任何人预期的都要好。他们总共拿了64分，但是他们在非常少的比赛中很幸运，他们的期望积分(xPTS)只有57.45分。另一方面，诺雪平获得了第9名。根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员的总市值来看，埃尔夫斯堡并不是球队中最大的球队。事实上，埃尔夫斯堡队的市场价值约为1400万欧元，埃尔夫斯堡球员的总价值约为1800万欧元。在我看来，这两个数字或多或少是正确的。上赛季很多埃尔夫斯堡球员的表现都高于他们的平均水平。如果他们本赛季能进入前二甚至前三，我会感到非常惊讶。当然，埃尔夫斯堡是一支更大更好的球队，在比赛的各个方面都有优势。即便如此，目前客场获胜的赔率——2.15左右——显然太低了!考虑到巨大的主场优势，埃尔夫斯堡在这里只是一个微弱的热门。

两队最近三场比赛都赢了一场。然而，埃尔夫斯堡在最近的比赛中输掉了两场。瑞典时间周一，他们在主场1-2不敌卡尔玛，表现非常令人失望。他们将只有整整两天的时间来恢复和准备这场棘手的比赛——这在职业足球中并不理想。主队在上周六的比赛中表现得更出色，所以他们应该在埃尔夫斯堡更有活力!在博彩市场上，埃尔夫斯堡的价格约为1.60美元，以击败卡尔玛。这是他们被博彩公司高估的又一个例子!卡尔玛有59%的控球率，但埃尔夫斯堡的进球次数更多，准确地说是10比7。在此之前，他们客场0-3输给了Hammarby，成为博彩市场上唯一的微弱劣势。主队理应得到三分，因为他们创造了更多的预期进球(xG)。然而，埃尔夫斯堡也有进球的机会。在此之前，他们在客场1-0击败了韦斯特罗斯队，这在博彩市场上是很明显的热门。他们很幸运地得到了全部三分。主队有56%的控球率，并且有更多的射偏、角球和进攻。他们在xG中也产生了1.67，而Elfsborg的数字只有0.48。在阿尔斯温斯坎第一轮主场对阵瓦尔纳莫的比赛中，他们的定价在1.50-1-53左右，但最终以2比2战平。埃尔夫斯堡的进球次数确实更多，14胜8负，但他们在球场上似乎相当不平衡。事实上，他们的整体表现并没有给我留下深刻的印象。另一方面，诺雪平在上一场比赛中表现出色，尽管客场对阵哥德堡只拿到一分。这是1比1的平局，但诺雪平的赌注在5.50-5.90左右。然而，诺雪平的得分高达3.34，东道主的得分只有1.04!然而，我必须说，哥德堡通常不会防守这么差……Norrkoping有53%的控球率，并且记录了更多的射门次数(13-7次)、射正(8-4次)、射偏、进攻和危险进攻。在此之前，诺雪平并没有处于最佳状态，但在主场1-0击败了GAIS，这主要归功于他们坚实的防守。事实上，在本场比赛中，诺雪平的进攻往往过于缓慢和可预测，这使得对手很容易组织防守。然而，客队选择了一种非常防守的战术，防守得比平时好。然而，GAIS在xG中只产生了0.37，并且只有两次射门。诺尔雪平和埃尔夫斯堡目前都只有4分，但埃尔夫斯堡的净胜球略多一些。我希望诺雪平在这里防守很好，因为他们在进攻端还有很多工作要做。埃尔夫斯堡的进攻也没有给人留下深刻的印象——他们目前在联赛中只进了4球。这里的预期进球比博彩公司估计的要低。事实上，总进球数少于2.5个的概率是53.50%。