SC Heerenveen VS PSV Eindhoven

Heerenveen welcome PSV for this Eredivisie round 31 battle at Abe Lenstra Stadion early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the first tier of Dutch football. The level of this league is of much better-than-average level by European standards. However, the top-4 leagues are much better. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of better than average quality by this league's standards here! Most importantly, we have a very promising betting opportunity here! We have won five of the last six picks betting on this league. PSV are the best team in this league, there is no question about that. However, they are still not as good as the statistics would suggest. The best top-teams are rarely worth a bet, especially on the road. There is, in fact, a lot of long-term data showing that in the long run betting on -1.5 goals handicap – not to mention a bigger handicap – is on average a terrible idea! Indeed, we will take the Heerenveen +1.5 goals handicap option here with a 59% chance of winning. Odds of around 1.90 are widely available at the time of posting this analysis! PSV have a massive 81 points to their account. There are only four more rounds left in the regular season. Feyenoord, in second place, have grabbed 72 points. This means that PSV have a well over 99% chance of winning the championship. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is significantly higher than the actual number of 81. They have also been lucky in terms both xG and xGA this season.

I would not be at all surprised if PSV's smart coach were to rotate his squad – perhaps even heavily here. Indeed, PSV have many talented young players who are eager to prove their skills. At home PSV will surely field a very strong squad – and keep scoring goals to entertain the demanding fans - even despite the fact that they have in reality already won the championship. On the road this is not necessarily the case.. PSV have won five times, lost twice and played one draw in their last eight games. Two of these eight games were against Dortmund – who qualified and were definitely the better team during the 2x90 minutes of football. Most of the bookies saw the match up as more or less a 50-50% case in terms of qualification. This was yet another example of PSV being too "hot" on the betting market. In their last game they crushed Vitesse at home 6-0 but were priced around 1.03-1.08 to win on the betting market. Of course they deserved to win but the final score does hugely flatter them.. Indeed, the expected goals (xG) numbers were 2.23-0.54. However, on the road they are not beatable – if the opponent has some class – and a hint of luck. Indeed, on the 330th of last month they lost to Nijmegen 1-3 away from home despite being priced around 1.35 to win by the bookies. PSV have definitely not been as good in 2024 as in the autumn of 2023.

Heerenveen, of course, cannot match PSV in any area of the game but are a pretty good team and will surely "smell" a chance of taking at least a point here in front of their loud and loyal fans.. They are in 10th place and have a lot to play for! Yes, the teams who finish in 6-9th place will play in the Playoffs where a ticket for the UEFA Conference League qualification for the next season. Heerenveen have 36 points to their account but their number of xPTS is 41.24. Sparta Rotterdam, in 9th place, have grabbed 40 points. Heerenveen have scored a decent 50 goals but I have not been quite happy with the way they have defended.. Their defenders often take too big risks near their own goal.. I hope the scary opponent PSV will help them concentrate better and make them play in a more safe way.. They have conceded 56 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is "only" 50.67. They have not lost any of their last five games by a margin of more than one goal but of course they have not faced teams of PSV caliber.. In their last game they beat Heracles 2-0 on the road and played very well. They were only marginal favourites in this game on the betting market. However, they recorded many more goal attempts (20-12), shots on goal, shots off goal, total passes and completed passes. Moreover, they generated much more in xG – 1.76-0.67 to be precise. Before this they played a somewhat balanced game at home against Utrecht but lost 2-3. In round 28 they played very well at home against Twente, a strong team, who are currently in 3rd place with 60 points in their pocket. It was an entertaining game and the final score was 3-3. Twente were priced around 1.80 to win by the bookies but Heerenveen generated, quite surprisingly, much more in xG than the visitors – 1.87-1.06 to be precise!

斯蒂文VS埃因霍温

北京时间周五凌晨，埃因霍温将在阿伯伦斯特拉球场迎来第31轮的比赛。这是荷兰足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平远远高于平均水平。然而，前四名联赛要好得多。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平更好的比赛!最重要的是，我们在这里有一个非常有前途的赌博机会!我们在过去6次赌这个联赛的选秀中赢了5次。埃因霍温是这个联赛中最好的球队，这是毫无疑问的。然而，它们仍然不如统计数据所显示的那么好。最好的顶级球队很少值得一赌，尤其是在客场。事实上，大量的长期数据表明，从长远来看，下注-1.5个进球的不利因素——更不用说更大的不利因素了——通常是一个糟糕的主意!事实上，我们将在这里采用heeneven +1.5球障碍选项，有59%的获胜机会。在发布这篇分析时，大约1.90的赔率是广泛可用的!埃因霍温有81分的优势。常规赛只剩下四轮了。排在第二位的费耶诺德拿到了72分。这意味着埃因霍温有超过99%的机会赢得冠军。他们的期望值(xPTS)明显高于实际的81。本赛季他们在xG和xGA方面也很幸运。

如果埃因霍温聪明的教练要轮换他的阵容，我一点也不会感到惊讶——也许在这里会很重。确实，埃因霍温有很多有天赋的年轻球员，他们渴望证明自己的技术。在主场，埃因霍温肯定会派出一支非常强大的阵容，并继续进球来取悦苛刻的球迷，尽管他们实际上已经赢得了冠军。在路上就不一定了。埃因霍温在最近的8场比赛中取得了5胜2负1平的战绩。这八场比赛中有两场是对阵多特蒙德的，多特蒙德出线了，在比赛的90分钟里，他们绝对是一支更好的球队。大多数博彩公司认为这场比赛的获胜几率差不多是50%。这是埃因霍温在博彩市场上过于“热门”的又一个例子。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场以6比0大胜维特斯，但在博彩市场上的胜率为1.03比1.08。当然他们应该赢，但是最后的比分让他们非常高兴。实际上，预期目标(xG)值为2.23-0.54。然而，在路上他们是不可击败的-如果对手有一些类-和一点运气。事实上，在上个月的330号，他们客场1-3不敌奈梅亨，尽管博彩公司开出了1.35的赔率。埃因霍温在2024年肯定没有2023年秋天那么好。

当然，海伦芬在比赛的任何方面都无法与埃因霍温相提并论，但他们是一支相当优秀的球队，在他们大声而忠诚的球迷面前，他们肯定会“嗅到”至少有机会拿到一分。他们排在第10位，还有很多比赛要踢!是的，以第6-9名结束比赛的球队将参加季后赛，并获得下赛季欧洲联盟联盟资格的入场券。他们的账户上有36个点，但他们的xPTS数量为41.24。排名第九的鹿特丹斯巴达队拿到了40分。他们打进了不错的50球，但我对他们防守的方式不太满意。他们的后卫经常在自己的球门附近冒太大的风险。我希望可怕的对手埃因霍温能帮助他们更好地集中注意力，让他们打得更安全。他们丢了56个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)“只有”50.67个。他们在最近的五场比赛中没有输过一球以上的比赛，当然他们没有遇到过埃因霍温这样的球队。在上一场比赛中，他们客场2-0击败了赫拉克勒斯，踢得非常好。在博彩市场上，他们在这场比赛中只是边缘热门。然而，他们的进球次数(20-12次)、射正次数、射偏次数、总传球次数和完成传球次数都要多得多。此外，它们在xG(准确地说是1.76-0.67)中产生的能量要大得多。在此之前，他们在主场对阵乌得勒支的比赛中表现得有些平衡，但以2比3输掉了比赛。在第28轮，他们在主场对特温特踢得非常好，特温特是一支强队，目前以60分排名第三。这是一场有趣的比赛，最终比分是3比3。博彩公司对特文特的赔率定在1.80左右，但令人惊讶的是，特文特的赔率比客队高得多——准确地说，是1.87比1.06 !