Bayern Munich VS Arsenal

Bayern Munich welcome Arsenal for this UEFA Champions League quarter-finals second leg clash Allianz Arena early Thursday morning Beijing time. The stakes are gigantic between these two very large teams. However, in my view only Arsenal are world-class at the moment.. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of elite quality here. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising betting opportunity to make more profit betting on this league. Arsenal currently occupy the 2nd place in the English Premier League standings with an impressive 71 points to their account. I want to highlight that this is clearly the best league in the world! Bayern Munich, on the other hand, are having a disappointing season – by their high standards I mean. Already last season they were far from impressive in the Bundesliga, the 3rd-best league on the planet. They did take the championship though as Dortmund very surprisingly failed to win their final game, at home as huge favourites.. At the moment they are in 2nd place in the Bundesliga, a whopping 16 points behind Bayer Leverkusen! Stuttgart, a much smaller team than Bayern, have grabbed 63 points as well. Their coach, Tuchel, will leave the club after the season and there has been quite a lot of speculation on his situation/position in the football media. According to some surveys a big percentage of Bayern fans would have wanted to sack him already.. There are also a lot of rumors on Tuchel having a suboptimal relationship with many of his key players. Furthermore, Tuchel is an overrated coach in my expert opinion – both in terms of tactical skill and as a leader. He has been in decline since winning the Champions League with Chelsea in 2021. Arsenal's manager, Arteta, is learning quickly and is a great leader. The players and fans alike respect him a lot. However, he is definitely not yet a top-3 manager in the world..

It is true that Champions League games are - to some extent - "different" from domestic league matches. I have, of course,  taken this into account in my probability estimation. Arsenal were the better team in the first leg in London but it was a 2-2 draw. Arsenal made a few silly mistakes and Bayern punished them mercilessly. Arsenal had 57% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, total passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Arsenal started the game very well and Saka scored the 1-0 goal in the 12th minute. Arsenal could easily have scored even more goals early into the second half. However, their defence made a mistake and Gnabry scored the 1-1 goal in the 18th minute.. Kane made it 1-2 soon after. Between 45th and 66th minute Arsenal were lame offensively but after two substitutions they put big pressure on Bayern's defence. Trossard made it 2-2 in the 76th minute. Let's not forget that Arsenal can play much better – Bayern played much better than for a long time. Of course they have a big home advantage in the 2nd leg but I do not agree with the bookies who see Bayern as favourites here! We will take Arsenal +0.5 goals handicap here! I expect a nervous and pretty defensive game here as the stakes are skyhigh. The probability of under 2.5 total goals to be scored is 52%. Bayern will be without three key players here – Coman, Gnabry and Davies. It seems that the bookies have failed to give these absences enough emphasis as they will affect Bayern's game a lot! Four other players are out too.. As for Arsenal, Timber is (still) out.

Yes, in big Champions League games have often raised their level from the level they perform in the Bundesliga. Arsenal have not even made it to the Champions League for many years. However, they are a young team that has been steadily improving for some 3-4 years now and are close to their peak at the moment! According to my sources they also have an excellent team spirit! I want to highlight that Bayern have not been even close to winning the Champions League for many years.. Their decline started already in the 2021-2022 but the pace of the decline has accelerated this season. In 2020 they did, however, beat a disappointing PSG in the final 1-0.  It seems that the bookies give Arsenal's lack of success in the Champions League and the draw in the first leg (Arsenal were priced around 1.65 to win) way too much emphasis here. Let's remember that in the last round of Playoffs Bayern even lost to Lazio, a pretty limited team from Italy, 0-1 away from home after a very disappointing performance. Yes, by pure class Manchester City are the best team on the planet - and top the Premier League standings - but their edge over for example Arsenal, Liverpool is pretty marginal at the moment. Bayern are not among the top-5 teams on the planet at the moment!

 Arsenal have been in much better form than the Germans recently. They have lost just one of their last nine games. This loss came to a dangerous team Aston Villa, currently in 4th place, last Sunday 0-2 at home. Arsenal were not at their best and Arteta had picked a little surprising starting eleven but the hosts still recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shott off goal, total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks. Arsenal also generated much more in expected goals (xG). Before last week's first leg Arsenal destroyed Brighton 3-0 on the road. Brighton definitely are not a bad team and even played in the UEFA Europa League Playoffs this season! Arsenal were dominant in this match - generating 4.01 in expected goals (xG)! Brighton managed only 0.33. Before this they offered Luton very few chances– taking a comfortable 2-0 win at home. In round 30 of the Premier League, on the 31st of last month, Man City welcomed Arsenal and the two teams played an extremely high-quality but very defensive encounter at Etihad Stadium. Manchester City only recorded one shot on target – Arsenal managed two. Either team could have won this clash but the hosts did generate a bit more in xG. I - along with many other professional bettors and football commentators - was impressed with Arsenal's ability to stop Man City's offense in this clash. Even the Norwegian star striker E. Haaland looked totally clueless in this match! Arsenal were pretty solid underdogs in this game. Man City were priced around 2.00 to win on the betting market at the time of kickoff. Bayern beat Köln in their last game – 2-0 at home. They deserved to win but did not fully convince me. Köln recorded 11 goal attempts. Bayern probably had their main focus on the Arsenal game though. Before last week's first leg Bayern lost two games in a row. They lost to a newly-promoted - and a very tiny team by Bundesliga standards - Heidenheim 2-3 on the road as big favorites – priced around 1.40 to win by the bookies. It was a horrible performance from Bayern! They led 2-0 at halftime but looked a bit lazy and arrogant in the 2nd half. Before this they were priced below 1.35 to beat Dortmund at home but lost 0-2 after a lazy and somewhat disorganized performance. The Bayern fans were very disappointed – some even angry - during and after the match. Going into this game Bayern had won 9/10 of the last matches between the two teams. To sum up, Bauern are pretty far from their best level at the moment.

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拜仁慕尼黑VS阿森纳

北京时间周四凌晨，拜仁慕尼黑欢迎阿森纳在欧冠1 / 4决赛次回合对阵安联球场。这两支非常大的球队之间的赌注是巨大的。然而，在我看来，目前只有阿森纳是世界级的……足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以在这里期待一场高质量的比赛。最重要的是，我们还有另一个非常有前途的投注机会，可以在这个联赛中获得更多的利润。阿森纳目前以令人印象深刻的71分排名英超积分榜第二。我想强调的是，这显然是世界上最好的联赛!另一方面，拜仁慕尼黑正在经历一个令人失望的赛季——我是说以他们的高标准来说。上个赛季，他们在德甲这个世界上排名第三的联赛中表现不佳。尽管多特蒙德出人意料地未能赢得最后一场比赛，但他们确实获得了冠军。目前他们在德甲排名第二，落后勒沃库森足足16分!斯图加特，一支比拜仁小得多的球队，也拿到了63分。他们的教练图切尔将在赛季结束后离开俱乐部，足球媒体对他的处境和位置有很多猜测。根据一些调查，很大比例的拜仁球迷已经想解雇他了。还有很多传言说图切尔和他的许多关键球员关系不佳。此外，在我看来，图切尔是一个被高估的教练——无论是战术技巧还是作为一个领导者。自2021年随切尔西赢得欧冠冠军以来，他的状态一直在下降。阿森纳的主教练阿尔特塔学得很快，是一个伟大的领袖。球员和球迷都很尊重他。然而，他绝对还不是世界前三的教练。

的确，在某种程度上，欧冠比赛与国内联赛“不同”。当然，在我的概率估计中，我已经考虑到了这一点。阿森纳在伦敦的首回合表现更好，但最终以2比2战平。阿森纳犯了一些愚蠢的错误，拜仁无情地惩罚了他们。阿森纳有57%的控球率，并且有更多的射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数。阿森纳开局非常好，萨卡在第12分钟打进了1-0的进球。阿森纳本可以在下半场早些时候轻松地进更多的球。然而，他们的防守犯了一个错误，格纳布里在第18分钟打进了1-1的进球。凯恩很快就把比分扳成1比2。在第45分钟到第66分钟之间，阿森纳的进攻很弱，但在两次换人之后，他们给拜仁的防线施加了很大的压力。特拉萨在第76分钟将比分改写为2比2。我们不要忘记阿森纳可以踢得更好——拜仁比很久以前踢得更好。当然，他们在第二回合有很大的主场优势，但我不同意博彩公司认为拜仁是最受欢迎的!我们将以阿森纳+0.5个进球为例!我预计这将是一场紧张而防守的比赛，因为赌注太高了。总进球数少于2.5个的概率是52%。拜仁在这里将失去三名关键球员——科曼、格纳布里和戴维斯。看来博彩公司没有给予这些缺阵球员足够的重视，因为他们会对拜仁的比赛产生很大的影响!另外四名球员也出局了。至于阿森纳，Timber(仍然)不在。

是的，在冠军杯的比赛中，他们的水平往往比在德甲的水平要高。阿森纳甚至已经很多年没有进入欧冠了。然而，他们是一支年轻的球队，已经稳步提高了大约3-4年，现在接近他们的巅峰!据我所知，他们也有出色的团队精神!我想强调的是，拜仁已经很多年没有接近欧冠冠军了……它们的下降已经在2021-2022年开始，但本季度下降的速度加快了。然而，在2020年，他们确实在决赛中以1比0击败了令人失望的巴黎圣日耳曼。看来博彩公司对阿森纳在欧冠联赛中的失利和首回合的平局(阿森纳的胜率在1.65左右)过于重视了。让我们记住，在季后赛的最后一轮，拜仁甚至在主场0-1输给了拉齐奥，这是一支来自意大利的实力相当有限的球队。是的，从纯粹的等级来看，曼城是这个星球上最好的球队，在英超联赛中排名第一，但他们与阿森纳、利物浦等球队的优势目前相当有限。拜仁不是

目前，我们是世界上排名前五的球队之一!

阿森纳最近的状态比德国人好得多。他们在最近的九场比赛中只输了一场。本场比赛的对手是目前排名第四的危险球队阿斯顿维拉，上周日他们在主场0-2负于对手。阿森纳没有达到最佳状态，阿尔特塔选择的11人首发阵容有点令人惊讶，但东道主的进球次数、射门次数、射门次数、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数仍然更多。阿森纳也创造了更多的预期进球(xG)。上周首回合比赛前，阿森纳客场3-0大胜布莱顿。布莱顿绝对不是一支糟糕的球队，本赛季他们甚至参加了欧联杯季后赛!阿森纳在这场比赛中占据统治地位——预期进球数为4.01 !布莱顿只得到了0.33分。在此之前，他们给卢顿的机会很少——在主场以2-0轻松取胜。上个月31日，英超联赛第30轮，曼城迎来了阿森纳，两支球队在阿提哈德球场进行了一场高质量但非常防守的交锋。曼城只有一次射正，而阿森纳有两次射正。任何一支球队都有可能赢得这场比赛，但东道主在比赛中确实创造了更多的机会。我和其他许多职业投注者和足球评论员一样，对阿森纳在这场比赛中阻止曼城进攻的能力印象深刻。就连挪威明星前锋哈兰德在这场比赛中也显得毫无头绪!阿森纳在这场比赛中一直处于劣势。开球时，曼城在博彩市场上的胜率是2英镑左右。拜仁在上一场比赛中主场2-0击败Köln。他们理应获胜，但并没有完全说服我。Köln 11次射门。拜仁的主要注意力可能集中在对阿森纳的比赛上。在上周首回合比赛之前，拜仁连输两场。他们输给了一支刚刚升班马的球队——按照德甲的标准，这是一支非常小的球队——海登海姆(Heidenheim)，客场2-3胜率最高，博彩公司开出的胜率约为1.40。拜仁的表现太糟糕了!上半场他们以2比0领先，但下半场他们显得有些懒散和傲慢。在此之前，在主场击败多特蒙德时，他们的定价低于1.35，但在懒散和有些混乱的表现后，他们以0比2输掉了比赛。拜仁球迷在比赛中和赛后都非常失望，有些人甚至愤怒。在这场比赛之前，拜仁在两队之间的最后一场比赛中赢了9/10。总而言之，目前拜仁离他们的最佳水平还差得很远。

04月18日拜仁慕尼黑 VS 阿森纳比赛分析直播