Benfica VS Marseille

Benfica welcome Marseille for this UEFA Europa League quarter-finals 1st leg battle at Estádio da Luz  Lisbon early Friday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest of UEFA's club competitions, after the Champions League, of course. The hosts are a Portuguese team – Marseille come from France. The stakes are big between these two teams here.. Not every major team prioritize this in the group stage – and rotates the squad - but at this phase of Europa League all teams usually are usually fully motivated! This is definitely the case here as none of the two teams are among the very best European teams and have not won that many trophies in UEFA's competitions in the past.. The winner of this competition will earn a place in the Champions League group stage for the next season. Benfica are not among the biggest favourites - Liverpool and Bayern Leverkusen are -  but the Portuguese team still have a genuine chance! Marseille's chances are very limited to say the least.. French teams usually struggle on the road in international games.. At home they can sometimes beat even the top-teams, like Lens beat Arsenal 2-1 last autumn in the Champions League. In London they had no chance at all and Arsenal crushed them 4-0. Marseille have lost two of their last three international games outside France. Moreover, they have now lost four of their last away games – and have won only one of their last seven games on the road, despite playing against worse teams than Benfica! Benfica's fans perhaps not among the top-5 enthusiastic in Europe but they are still a very strong team at their stadium. Indeed, they have won six of their last eight home games.

Benfica are currently in 2nd place in the Liga Portugal with an impressive 67 points and still have an excellent score difference of 62:23. Benfica lost their last game 1-2. It was a difficult away match against Sporting CP, who currently top the Liga Portugal standings. Benfica were pretty clear underdogs in this game on the betting market. Even so, they played well and had 55% ball possession. They also recorded more goal attempts, shots off goal, corner kicks and attacks. They also generated more in expected goals (xG) – 1.43-0.97 to be precise. Before this they faced the same opponent, this time in Taca de Portugal (cup) and it was a 2-2 draw at home. Benfica were, however, the better team on the pitch. They recorded substantially more goal attempts (21-15), attacks, corner kicks (11-4) as well as dangerous attacks (67-35) than the visitors. Before these two games they took four consecutive wins – allowing a total of only one goal! I have been pretty impressed with their defence this season. Silly individual mistakes are rare and the defensive structure is fine.

Marseille are having an erratic and as a whole disappointing season.. They are in 8th place in the Ligue 1 with a decent 39 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is higher though. They had a lame run in January and in the first half of February. After that they managed to take many wins in a row under a new manager, J. Gasset. He replaced the AC Milan legend, Italian Gennaro Gattuso. Now Marseille are no longer enjoying Gasset's new manager bounce and are totally out of form! Indeed, they have now lost four games in a row, all by a margin of two goals! In their last game they faced Lille on the road and the hosts deservedly took all three points – 3-1 was the final score. They had more goal attempts, shots on target, corner kicks, total passes, completed passes and attacks. The xG numbers were 1.55-0.77. Before this PSG showed Marseille no mercy, taking a 2-0 win in Marseille. The team from Paris generated 2.34 in xG – Marseille managed 1.15. In round 26 of Ligue 1 Marseille were poor on the road against Rennes, recording only one shot on target. Rennes generated much more in xG. Before losing to Rennes Marseille lost to Villarreal in Spain in an UEFA Europa League Play Offs second leg battle 1-3. Marseille did, however, qualify 5-3 on aggregate. I want to mention that Villareal played well below their normal level in the 1st leg. 

Marseille are clearly low in confidence at the moment and I do not trust their coach neither in terms of tactical skills or as a leader. Allowing 10 goals in their last four games is also  very worrying for them as they would probably have to score at least twice to beat Benfica here.. Benfica are a much more mature and better organized team here. They are also clearly the bigger team in terms of players' estimated total market value according to Transfermarkt.com, a well-known and respected source. The Benfica squad is valued at over 360 million euros. Marseille will be without Murillo, Nadir, Onana, Rongier and Ruiz. Clauss and Ngapandoutnbu are questionable at the time of writing this in-depth analysis. Benfica, on the other hand, have no confirmed missing players. Odds of around 1.85 on the home win are widely available with the biggest bookies and that is too high!

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

本菲卡VS马赛

北京时间周五凌晨，本菲卡将在主场Estádio迎接马赛参加欧联杯1 / 4决赛首回合比赛。这是欧足联第二高的俱乐部比赛，当然仅次于冠军联赛。东道主是一支葡萄牙球队——马赛来自法国。这两支球队之间的利害关系很大。并不是所有的豪门球队都在小组赛中优先考虑这一点，并且轮换阵容，但在欧联杯的这个阶段，所有的球队通常都是充满动力的!这绝对是事实，因为这两支球队都不是欧洲最好的球队，而且在过去的欧足联比赛中也没有赢得那么多奖杯。这场比赛的获胜者将获得下赛季欧冠小组赛的席位。本菲卡并不在夺冠热门之列——利物浦和勒沃库森是——但葡萄牙球队仍然有真正的机会!至少可以这么说，马赛的机会非常有限。在国际比赛中，法国队通常在客场表现不佳。在主场，他们有时甚至可以击败顶级球队，就像去年秋天在冠军联赛中2-1击败阿森纳一样。在伦敦，他们完全没有机会，阿森纳以4:0击败了他们。马赛在最近的三场国际比赛中输掉了两场。此外，他们在最近的客场比赛中输掉了4场，而在最近的7场客场比赛中只赢了1场，尽管对手比本菲卡更糟糕!本菲卡的球迷也许不是欧洲最热情的前五名，但他们在球场上仍然是一支非常强大的球队。事实上，他们在最近的8场主场比赛中赢了6场。

本菲卡目前以令人印象深刻的67分排名葡萄牙甲级联赛第二，但仍有62:23的出色分差。本菲卡以1比2输掉了上一场比赛。这是一场艰难的客场比赛，对手是目前葡萄牙联赛积分榜第一的竞技CP。在这场比赛中，本菲卡在博彩市场上显然处于劣势。即便如此，他们打得很好，控球率达到了55%。他们的进球次数、射门次数、角球次数和进攻次数也更多。他们也产生了更多的预期进球(xG)——准确地说是1.43-0.97。在此之前，他们面对的是同一个对手，这次是在葡萄牙杯，主场2-2战平。然而，本菲卡队在球场上表现得更好。他们的进球次数(21胜15负)、进攻次数、角球次数(11胜4负)和危险进攻次数(67胜35负)明显多于客队。在这两场比赛之前，他们取得了四连胜——总共只丢了一个球!我对他们本赛季的防守印象非常深刻。愚蠢的个人失误很少，防守结构也很好。

马赛经历了一个不稳定的赛季，整个赛季都令人失望。他们目前在法甲联赛中排名第8，已经拿到了39分。不过，它们的xpt数量更高。他们在1月和2月上半月表现不佳。在那之后，他们在新教练J.加塞特的带领下取得了许多连胜。他取代了AC米兰的传奇人物，意大利人加图索。现在马赛不再享受加塞特的新教练带来的活力，他们的状态完全不佳!事实上，他们已经连续输了四场比赛，而且都只输了两个球!在上一场比赛中，他们在客场面对里尔，东道主当之无愧地获得了全部三分——3-1是最后的比分。他们有更多的进球尝试、射正、角球、总传球、完成传球和进攻。xG值为1.55 ~ 0.77。在此之前，巴黎圣日耳曼对马赛毫不留情，以2:0战胜马赛。来自巴黎的球队在上届比赛中取得了2.34分，马赛取得了1.15分。法甲联赛第26轮，马赛在客场对阵雷恩的比赛中表现不佳，只有1次射正。雷恩在《xG》中创造了更多内容。在输给雷恩之前，马赛在欧联杯附加赛次回合1-3输给了西班牙比利亚雷亚尔。然而，马赛最终以总比分5-3出线。我想说的是，比利亚雷亚尔在第一回合的表现远远低于他们的正常水平。

马赛现在显然信心不足，我不相信他们的教练，无论是战术技巧还是领导能力。最近四场比赛丢了10球也让他们非常担心，因为他们可能需要至少进两球才能在这里击败本菲卡。本菲卡是一支更成熟、更有组织的球队。根据Transfermarkt.com(一个知名且受人尊敬的消息来源)的估计，从球员的总市场价值来看，他们显然是更大的球队。本菲卡队的身价超过3.6亿欧元。马赛将失去穆里略，纳迪

r, Onana, Rongier和Ruiz。克劳斯和Ngapandoutnbu在撰写这篇深入分析时受到质疑。另一方面，本菲卡没有确定的球员缺阵。主场获胜的赔率约为1.85，最大的博彩公司广泛使用，这太高了!

04月12日本菲卡 VS 马赛比赛分析直播