I see both home teams favorites in the two fixtures, and will explain why.

PSG - BARCELONA

Huge quality difference here, and I’m surprised with PSG’ odds.

PSG is one more year, a title contender. They have one of the best squads in Europe and one of the best players in the world. And I’ve got no doubt Mbappe is the player Barca will fear most. His pace in behind will be a huge threat, so right-back Jules Kounde and right centre-back Ronald Araujo have a big responsibility to try and keep him quiet.

Barcelona’s defense has been terrible this season, with 34 goals conceded in 30 league games, many individual mistakes and being very vulnerable. In the UCL they have not been able to keep the goal to nil only in 2 of 8 games: Antwerp and Oporto. However, they conceded a total of 7 goals in the other 6 games played, and rivals weren’t strong at all: Shakhtar scored in both games, Oporto 1, Antwerp scored three goals (3:2), and Napoli also created many chances. I have no idea how this defense will stop PSG.

Because PSG are not all about Mbappe – they are a very balanced side. Full-back Lucas Hernandez is fantastic going forward, although Achraf Hakimi’s suspension is a blow because he is usually key on the right. In midfield, Vitinha is crucial in the centre of the park with his forward distribution key to PSG’s attacking momentum.

At home is where PSG has been stronger in the UCL this season: three victories and one draw (unlucky one) against Newcastle, whilst playing away they lost three games, drew one and won only against Real Sociedad (1:2) in a great performance by Mbappe.

That’s why I believe that the key for the qualification for PSG will be in this home game. In Barcelona they’ll struggle, so they need to take the advantage from the first game to control the tempo in the second game, be more defensive, and kill the match at counters with spaces, where Mbappe and Dembele are lethal.

PSG is unbeaten in 27 games, so they are in brilliant form. For the first time in many years, PSG will play a UCL qualification with almost all squad available. Only Kimpembe is out for both games due to an injury (and Achraf Hakimi suspended for the first game, as said).

On the other hand, away from home, Ilkay Gundogan’s experience and knowhow, for me, makes him Barcelona’s most important player. His ability to keep the ball, play intelligent passes, and make dangerous runs forward could have an influence on the outcome. However, they also have had some games where it is noted his lack of pace, being very slow with the decision and losing important balls. And this kind of mistakes and lack of pace in a match like this one could be crucial.

Naturally, Barca’s creative players will look to provide Robert Lewandowski with goalscoring opportunities, particularly if they can break with pace and purpose when PSG lose possession. But the polish striker is also in really poor form this season, very slow movements and not scoring the amount of goals we used to see from him.

I’m also looking forward to seeing how two of Europe’s brightest young stars – Barca’s Lamine Yamal and PSG’s Warren Zaire-Emery – perform on the biggest stage as they face off at senior level for the first time.

Barcelona has improved recently, is unbeaten in the last 11 games, but I still don’t see them as a TOP team in Europe. They simply don’t have the quality needed, and their best player this season has been a kid of just 16 years old (Lamine Yamal), who isn’t ready for a UCL ¼ finals in Paris. Furthermore, their best defender in the last months has been another kid without any kind of experience: Pau Cubarsi, who is only 17 years old and has played less than 15 games with the first team.

I see an end-to-end game with chances at both ends, with former Barca boss Luis Enrique’s PSG picking up the win. PSG has more quality, better players, more experience and a much better coach.

ATLÉTICO MADRID - BORUSSIA DORTMUND

With two teams who have failed to impress this season, how do we bet on this game? The answer to that is simple: we trust the identity of each team.

I have been surprised with Atletico’s Madrid performance against Inter Milan. I had zero hopes for them, but they made a great game and deserved to qualify, showing that in the moments where it’s needed, Atletico always shows a very strong and competitive face.

We saw in that game how good Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid can be in knockout competitions. Even at 2-0 behind Inter Milan, they fought back, scored twice, and then held their nerve from the spot.

For me, the team’s attitude embodies Simeone – with Rodrigo De Paul and Koke’s physicality in the middle so important.

But there is also quality – Antoine Griezmann is truly world class and could be the difference in this game because he is the kind of player who delivers his best in high-pressure matches. I also believe Samuel Lino continues to improve and can pose problems from the left.

Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata have the ability to put Dortmund away with their attacking play and defensively this team is very sound.

Atletico may only have won two of their last four but this is a time who are primed, as they always are, for big European games. They come into this off the back of a 2-1 win over Villarreal, three points they desperately needed after a big loss to Barcelona in, in which they ended the game with fewer than 11.

This is about home form and Atletico have turned the Metropolitan into a fortress. They’ve won 13 of 15 home games in La Liga this year, with that 3-0 loss to Barcelona and a draw to Getafe, as their only slip-ups. That’s an incredible run of form and with the stadium rocking, as it always does under the floodlights in the Champions League, it’s set up for Atletico to win.

Throughout the Diego Simeone era at Atletico, we’ve seen time and again that he brings his teams into these games hungry for victory. His players run out onto the field and give their all and the crowd reciprocates with noise. His teams play hard, aggressive, and often very dirty. Winning is everything to Simeone, regardless of how it looks. That attitude will get his team over the line here and they know they need to take advantage of that home crowd in the first leg.

On the other hand, despite losing at the weekend, Borussia Dortmund have been in good form recently, having won five their last six games, including an away victory at Bayern Munich. For me this have been the biggest surprise in the UCL so far, and are undoubtedly the worst team we have remaining in this ¼ finals.

Karim-David Adeyemi has been among the goals and, with Donyell Malen possibly out injured, his ability to break with pace could be important. Likewise, Jadon Sancho will play a similar role, so if Dortmund’s wingers can get in behind the opposition backline, they could have some joy.

But for me, Julian Brandt could hold the key to unlocking the Atletico defence. His ability to make runs into the box without being picked up by defenders is exceptional while he’s also among the Bundesliga’s assists leaders this season – so I’m sure Simeone has a plan to nullify him.

It should be a close game, but I think home advantage will be the difference. Back another classic Simeone performance for Atletico this Wednesday.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

我认为这两支主场球队都是最受欢迎的，我会解释原因。

巴黎圣日耳曼-巴塞罗那

巨大的质量差异，我对PSG的赔率感到惊讶。

巴黎圣日耳曼还有一年，是冠军争夺者。他们拥有欧洲最好的阵容和世界上最好的球员之一。毫无疑问，姆巴佩是巴萨最害怕的球员。他在后场的速度将是一个巨大的威胁，所以右后卫孔德和右中卫阿劳霍有很大的责任让他保持安静。

巴塞罗那本赛季的防守非常糟糕，30场联赛丢了34球，个人失误很多，非常脆弱。在欧冠联赛中，他们在8场比赛中只有2场没能将比分保持在0:安特卫普和波尔图。然而，他们在其他6场比赛中总共丢了7个球，对手也并不强大:矿工两场比赛都有进球，波尔图1，安特卫普3球(3:2)，那不勒斯也创造了很多机会。我不知道这样的防守怎么能阻止巴黎圣日耳曼。

因为巴黎圣日耳曼不全是姆巴佩，他们是一支非常平衡的球队。边后卫卢卡斯·埃尔南德斯的前场表现非常出色，尽管哈基米的停赛对他来说是个打击，因为他通常是右路的关键人物。在中场，维金尼亚在中场发挥着至关重要的作用，他的前场分配对巴黎圣日耳曼的进攻势头至关重要。

在主场，巴黎圣日耳曼在本赛季的欧冠联赛中表现更强:对纽卡斯尔三胜一平(不幸的一平)，而在客场，他们在姆巴佩的出色表现下，只对皇家社会三负一平一胜(1:2)。

这就是为什么我相信巴黎圣日耳曼出线的关键在于主场比赛。在巴塞罗那，他们会很挣扎，所以他们需要在第一场比赛中占据优势，在第二场比赛中控制节奏，更加防守，在反击中利用姆巴佩和登贝莱的致命空间来扼杀比赛。

巴黎圣日耳曼在27场比赛中保持不败，所以他们的状态非常好。这是巴黎圣日耳曼多年来第一次在几乎全员出战的情况下参加欧冠资格赛。只有金彭贝因伤缺席了两场比赛(哈基米也因伤缺席了第一场比赛)。

另一方面，在客场，伊尔凯·京多安的经验和技术，对我来说，使他成为巴塞罗那最重要的球员。他的控球能力、聪明的传球能力和危险的前场跑动能力可能会对比赛结果产生影响。然而，他们也有一些比赛，注意到他缺乏速度，决策非常缓慢，失去了重要的球。在这样的比赛中，这种错误和节奏的缺乏可能是至关重要的。

当然，巴萨的创造型球员会为莱万多夫斯基提供进球的机会，特别是如果他们能在巴黎圣日耳曼失去控球权的时候有速度和目的突破的话。但这位波兰前锋本赛季的状态也很糟糕，他的动作很慢，也没有我们以前看到的那么多进球。

我也很期待看到两位欧洲最耀眼的年轻球星——巴萨的亚马尔和巴黎圣日耳曼的扎伊尔-埃梅里——在最大的舞台上的表现，这是他们第一次在高级别比赛中交锋。

巴塞罗那最近有所进步，在最近11场比赛中保持不败，但我仍然不认为他们是欧洲顶级球队。他们根本没有所需的实力，本赛季他们最好的球员是一个只有16岁的孩子(拉明·亚马尔)，他还没有准备好参加在巴黎举行的欧冠决赛。此外，他们最近几个月最好的后卫是另一个没有任何经验的孩子:保罗·库巴尔西，他只有17岁，在一线队出场不到15场。

我认为这是一场两端都有机会的比赛，前巴萨主帅恩里克的巴黎圣日耳曼将会取得胜利。巴黎圣日耳曼有更多的球员，更好的球员，更多的经验和一个更好的教练。

AtlÉtico马德里-多特蒙德

这两支球队本赛季都没有给人留下深刻的印象，我们怎么赌这场比赛呢?答案很简单:我们相信每个团队的身份。

我对马竞对阵国际米兰的表现感到惊讶。我对他们不抱任何希望，但他们踢了一场精彩的比赛，晋级是当之无愧的，在需要的时刻，马竞总是展现出非常强大和有竞争力的一面。

我们在那场比赛中看到了西蒙尼的马德里竞技在淘汰赛中的表现。即使在2-0落后于国际米兰的情况下，他们也奋起反击，梅开二度，然后在点球大战中保持冷静。

对我来说，球队的态度体现了西蒙尼——罗德里戈·德保罗和科克在中场的身体素质

重要的。

但是球队也有实力——安东尼·格列兹曼是真正的世界级球员，他可能会在这场比赛中有所作为，因为他是那种在高压比赛中发挥最好的球员。我也相信里诺还在继续进步，可以在左路制造麻烦。

安东尼·格列兹曼和阿尔瓦罗·莫拉塔有能力用他们的进攻和防守把多特蒙德赶走，这支球队非常健全。

马竞可能在过去的四场比赛中只赢了两场，但这是一个时刻，他们准备好了，因为他们总是这样，为重要的欧洲比赛。他们在2-1战胜比利亚雷亚尔后进入了这个阶段，在输给巴塞罗那之后，他们迫切需要3分，那场比赛他们以不到11分结束了比赛。

这是一场主场比赛，马竞已经把大都会变成了一座堡垒。他们今年在西甲的15场主场比赛中赢了13场，0 - 3负于巴塞罗那和战平赫塔菲是他们唯一的失误。这是一个令人难以置信的状态，随着球场的摇摆，就像在欧冠的聚光灯下一样，马竞已经准备好赢球了。

纵观迭戈·西蒙尼在马竞的时代，我们一次又一次地看到他带领他的球队进入这些比赛，渴望胜利。他的球员们跑到球场上，全力以赴，而观众也报以嘈杂的声音。他的球队打得很努力，很有侵略性，而且经常很肮脏。胜利对西蒙尼来说就是一切，不管看起来如何。这种态度会让他的球队在这里越过底线，他们知道他们需要在第一回合利用主场的观众。

另一方面，尽管在周末输球，多特蒙德最近状态不错，最近6场比赛赢了5场，其中包括客场战胜拜仁慕尼黑。对我来说，这是迄今为止在欧冠联赛中最大的惊喜，毫无疑问，这是我们在四分之一决赛中剩下的最差的球队。

卡利姆-大卫·阿德耶米也在进球之列，由于马伦可能受伤，他的突破能力可能很重要。同样的，桑乔也会扮演类似的角色，所以如果多特蒙德的边锋能够在对方的后防线后面，他们可能会有一些快乐。

但对我来说，朱利安·勃兰特可能是打开马竞防线的钥匙。他在禁区内不被防守球员接住的能力是非常出色的，同时他也是本赛季德甲助攻榜的领跑者之一——所以我相信西蒙尼有一个计划来压制他。

这应该是一场势均力敌的比赛，但我认为主场优势将是关键。本周三西蒙尼在马竞的又一场经典表演。

04月11日马德里竞技 VS 多特蒙德比赛分析直播

04月11日巴黎圣日尔曼 VS 巴塞罗那比赛分析直播