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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A GREAT match to bet on! $$$

2024-04-05

比赛分析

主队帕德博恩LOGO

帕德博恩

德乙

已完赛

星期六2024-04-06 00:30

客队柏林赫塔LOGO

柏林赫塔

解读理由

SC Paderborn 07 VS Hertha Berlin


Paderborn welcome Hertha Berlin for this German 2. Bundesliga round 28 clash at Home Deluxe Arena early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-best second tier on the planet. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty good level by this league's standards. We have yet another promising betting opportunity here to increase the winning streak here. The hosts are currently in 8th place in the standings. The visitors are in 9th place. Paderborn finished in 6th place last season – Hertha played in the Bundesliga last season. Hertha's season has been – in all honesty – a disappointment as a whole. However, they have the potential to improve in all areas of the game during the last seven games of the season. Furthermore, they still have a slim chance of taking 3rd place - and a place in the Promotion Play Offs. According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com. They are the much bigger team here. Their squad has an estimated market value of some 45 million euros. This is, in my expert opinion, a little too high though. The hosts' players are valued at a total of around 19 million, which is more or less correct.

Paderborn have a decent 39 points to their account and their number of expected points (xPTS) is 37.78. Their goal difference is much worse than Hertha's! Indeed, the hosts have scored only 41 goals! This is less than Kaiserslautern, currently in 16th place, have scored. They lack individual skill and speed in offense. Hertha have netted the ball 53 times – this is the second-highest number in the 2. Bundesliga. They have several very dangerous offensive players and can use many different attacking strategies. Paderborn have allowed 45 goals, Hertha have conceded one more goal. The bookies see the hosts as clear favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.05 to send the visitors home empty-handed. Taking the substantial home advantage into account they do deserve to be the favourites here, but only narrow - with the expected lineups. Hertha +0.5 goals is the professional bettor's choice here. Paderborn have been in decline recently – not winning only of their last four games. Moreover, they have lost two of their last games. 

In their last game the hosts suffered a defeat on the road at the hands of St. Pauli 1-2. It was not a terrible performance but the hosts deserved to win. Indeed, St. Pauli had 55% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target as well as attacks. They also generated more in expected goals (xG) – 1.56-1.03 to be precise. Before this Paderborn lost to Braunschweig 1-2 at home as clear favourites – priced around 1.85 to win on the betting market. They had more goal attempts but the visitors, rather surprisingly, generated more in xG – 1.67-1.44. A disappointing performance from Paderborn as a whole. Hertha have lost just one of their last seven matches. In their last game they were not quite at their best and it was a 3-3 draw at home against Nurnberg 3-3. Nurnberg played better than usual in this game but Hertha still generated more in xG – 2.45-1.56. Before this Hertha Berlin crushed Schalke 5-2 at home! An amazing offensive performance! Hertha generated almost 4.00 in xG but Schalke too had their chances. I want to mention that Schalke are a better team than the standings would reflect though. It was an open and entertaining clash.



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

帕德博恩VS柏林赫塔


帕德博恩欢迎柏林赫塔赢得德国世界杯。北京时间周六凌晨,德甲第28轮比赛将在主场举行。这是世界上第二好的第二梯队。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以这个联赛的标准来看相当不错的比赛。我们还有另一个很有希望的投注机会来增加连胜纪录。东道主目前排名第8。客队排名第九。帕德博恩上赛季排名第六——赫塔上赛季在德甲踢球。赫塔这个赛季——老实说——整体上令人失望。然而,在本赛季的最后七场比赛中,他们在比赛的各个方面都有提高的潜力。此外,他们仍然有很小的机会获得第三名,并在升级附加赛中获得一席之地。据德国知名知名网站Transfermarkt.com称。他们是这里更大的队伍。据估计,这支球队的市值约为4500万欧元。以我的专业意见,这有点太高了。东道主球员的总身价约为1900万欧元,这或多或少是正确的。

帕德伯恩队有相当不错的39分,他们的预期分数(xPTS)是37.78。他们的净胜球比赫塔差多了!事实上,东道主只进了41个球!这比目前排名第16位的凯泽斯劳滕大学的得分要低。他们在进攻中缺乏个人技术和速度。赫塔有53次进球,这是第二高的数字。德甲。他们有几个非常危险的进攻球员,可以使用许多不同的进攻策略。帕德博恩丢了45个球,赫塔又丢了一个球。博彩公司认为东道主显然是最受欢迎的球队,他们开出了2.05的赔率,让客队空手而归。考虑到巨大的主场优势,他们确实应该成为最受欢迎的球队,但在预期的阵容下,只是微弱的优势。赫塔+0.5球是职业投注者的选择。帕德博恩最近的表现一直在下滑,只有最近四场比赛没有获胜。此外,他们在最近的比赛中输了两场。

在上一场比赛中,东道主客场以1比2输给了圣保利队。这不是一场糟糕的比赛,但东道主应该获胜。事实上,圣保利队拥有55%的控球率,并且记录了更多的射门次数、射正次数、射偏次数以及进攻次数。他们也产生了更多的预期目标(xG)——准确地说是1.56-1.03。在此之前,帕德伯恩在主场以1比2输给了布伦瑞克,他们显然是夺冠热门,在博彩市场上的胜率约为1.85。他们有更多的进球尝试,但令人惊讶的是,客队在xG - 1.67-1.44的比分中创造了更多的进球。帕德博恩的整体表现令人失望。赫塔最近七场比赛只输了一场。在上一场比赛中,他们没有发挥出最佳状态,主场3-3战平纽伦堡。纽伦堡在这场比赛中表现得比平时好,但赫塔在xG - 2.45-1.56的比赛中仍然有更多的进球。在此之前,柏林赫塔主场5-2大胜沙尔克!令人惊叹的进攻表现!赫塔在9月创造了近4.00个进球,但沙尔克也有机会。我想说的是,沙尔克是一支比排名所反映的更好的球队。这是一场公开而有趣的冲突。

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