At home Lille have conceded only 7 goals in 13 games, and they have been the best home team in Ligue 1 this season. It is a ridiculously low number, but it reflects the performances rather well as their expected goals against at 11 goals is also among top-4.

Marseille have been rather weak travellers, but it is also a part of the reason why they have recently changed their coach. They have conceded more than they should have, 21 goals against 16 xGA, and I am expecting those numbers to regret to the mean as the season progresses.

In the actual table there is a 7 point gap in favour of Lille, but in the expected data Marseille have been the better team and they should actually be 2nd, only a few points behind PSG!

The defense, or the luck, has failed them.

Formwise both are receiving mixed results after mixed performances, so what can we expect? Do team news help?

Lille are without Angel Gomes, Tiago Morais, Rafael Fernandes, Andrej Ilic and Samuel Umtiti. Gudmundsson is likely to replace again Gomes in the midfield like last time around. Gomes is an important attacking piece and badly missed.

Marseille have a few doubts in addition to Jean Onana, Ismaïla Sarr, Amir Murillo, Valentin Rongier, Bamo Meïté, Bilal Nadir and Jonathan Clauss who are injured, and especially missing both players fast Sarr and Clauss is a big blow to their scoring hopes. Fortunately they still have Aubameyang available who has scored 11 goals, even if his xG suggests he should have 17!

Jonathan Christian David is the top scorer for Lille with 15 goals, but I doubt that there will be too many goals in this tight match which especially Marseille can not afford to lose as they would get soon far from European spots, and as both have the best defensive records performance-wise this could end up in a dull 0-0.

在主场，里尔在13场比赛中只丢了7球，他们是本赛季法甲联赛中最好的主场球队。这是一个低得离谱的数字，但这反映了他们的表现，因为他们的预期进球数也在前4名。

马赛一直是相当弱的旅行者，但这也是他们最近更换教练的部分原因。他们丢的球比他们应该丢的多，对阵16场比赛丢了21个球，我希望随着赛季的进展，这些数字会变得很糟糕。

在实际的积分榜上，里尔有7分的差距，但在预期的数据中，马赛是一支更好的球队，他们实际上应该排在第二，只落后巴黎圣日耳曼几分!

防守，或者说运气，辜负了他们。

从形式上看，两者在好坏参半的表现之后都得到了好坏参半的结果，那么我们能期待什么呢?团队新闻有帮助吗?

里尔没有安吉尔·戈麦斯、蒂亚戈·莫莱斯、拉斐尔·费尔南德斯、安德烈·伊利奇和塞缪尔·乌姆蒂蒂。古德蒙森很可能会像上次一样再次取代戈麦斯出任中场。戈麦斯是一个重要的攻击手，但他的进攻失误严重。

马赛除了让-奥纳纳、Ismaïla萨尔、穆里略、朗吉尔、巴莫Meïté、纳迪尔和克劳斯都受伤之外，还有一些疑问，尤其是萨尔和克劳斯都缺阵，这对他们的进球希望是一个很大的打击。幸运的是，他们还有已经打进11球的奥巴梅扬，尽管他的xG认为他应该打进17球!

乔纳森·克里斯蒂安·大卫是里尔的最佳射手，打进了15球，但我怀疑在这场激烈的比赛中会有太多的进球，尤其是马赛不能输，因为他们很快就会远离欧洲赛场，而且两队都有最好的防守记录，这可能会以沉闷的0-0结束。