Brighton vs West Ham 

Brighton have secured their place in the Premier League for next season and have nothing to play for especially as there still are no spectators. Historical data from top European Leagues shows that teams trying to avoid relegation or fighting for a lucrative Euro competition (Europa League in this case) can have a closer to 10% bigger chance of winning than in a normal, say early or mid-season match. Qualifying to Europa League would mean a lot to West Ham who are not a traditional big club in England and have disappointed their fans often during the past 10 years. Europa League qualification and possible success in this competition would also bring a lot of money for the team and bonuses for the players. Even without the extra motivation I rate West Ham as clearly a better team than Brighton. Both teams have been slightly unlucky this season in terms of expected goals - Brighton even more than West Ham though. However, we have to be realistic and recognize Brighton do create chances but are chronically ineffective in scoring. Their offensive players seem to lack some world-class skills that they would need on this level.

Neither team is in top-shape at the moment but the visitors have played better lately winning two of the latest five Premier League matches whereas the hosts have won just one of the latest six matches. They suffered a bitter loss to Everton last week but played pretty well and had more goal attempts and ball possession was 69-31% in their favor. I would say they were a little unlucky not to score losing 0-1. Brighton did not have a real chance to fight for the win versus Wolverhampton and lost 1-2 but even a bigger loss would not have been unjustified. It certainly looked liked they did not have 100% motivation or concentration in that match and I would not be surprised if we were to witness the same today versus ultra-motivated West Ham!