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俄罗斯职业体育分析师,是欧洲最知名的分析师之一。
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End of season in Turkey. High odds. 加拉塔萨雷vs玛拉蒂亚

2021-05-15

比赛分析

土超

已完赛

星期日2021-05-16 01:30

解读理由

Probably, the most exciting games of the day will be held in Turkey, where Besiktas and Galatasaray are going to cross swords indirectly for the title with Fenerbahce watching from a distance.

The previous round had delivered amazingly unexpected results as 2 of 3 top table teams lost their key games - Besiktas failed to take advantage of unmotivated (according to the table) Karagumruk (1-2) and Fenerbahce to decent Sivasspor (1-2). Both played their games at home and yet could not make amends. What’s more Besiktas even had a 1 man advantage over Karagumruk on 1-1 scoreline and still found a way to lose the match.

I believe Galatasaray had their influence on those shocking outcomes. It is absolutely uncommon for a club of Karagumruk stature to be unmotivated to come and take 3 points away from title contender with 2 games remaining in the season. I would not state the same regarding Sivasspor, however - Fenerbahce is simply not good enough to be a serious contender for the title.

With 1 round remaining Besiktas and Galatasaray are now tied on 81 points and both face NTPF (nothing to play for) opponents - Goztepe and Yeni respectively. The key thing in the whole premise is that Besiktas and Gala are tied on all tie-breaker rules - 1) Points; 2) Head-to-head points; 3) Head-to-head goal difference; 4) Head-to-head goals scored;

They have 3 points each in h2h games; goals difference is +2 / +2; and h2h scored goals is 3 and 3.

The 5th tie-breaker rule is the overall goals difference - Besiktas is +44, while Galatasaray is +42.

This means that Galatasaray have to win their game against unmotivated Yeni Malatyaspor by at least 3 goals to stand a chance of taking over Besiktas and winning the title. It would not be a miracle by any means, especially not by Turkish Super Liga standards, where I’ve seen bigger jaw dropping things happen. I am positive Galatasaray will do their part of the job and win this final game by a 3+ goals difference, probably, allowing Yeni to score a consolation goal as well.

本译文使用有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

当天最激动人心的比赛将在土耳其举行,贝西克塔斯和加拉塔萨雷将为争夺冠军间接交锋。

上一轮的结果出人意料,前三名中有两名输掉了关键的比赛——贝西克塔斯没能抓住毫无动力的卡拉古姆鲁克(1-2)和费内巴切(1-2)的机会,输给体面的西瓦斯波尔(1-2)。两人都在家里玩游戏,但却无法弥补过失。更重要的是,贝西克塔斯甚至在1比1的比分中对卡拉古姆鲁克有1人的优势,但仍然找到了输掉比赛的方法。

我相信加拉塔萨雷对这些令人震惊的结果有影响。在赛季还剩两场比赛的情况下,卡拉古姆鲁克这样的俱乐部没有动力从冠军争夺者手中夺走3分,这是绝对不寻常的。但是对于西瓦斯波尔,我不会说同样的话——费内巴切还不够好,不足以成为冠军的有力竞争者。

在剩下的1轮比赛中,贝西克塔斯和加拉塔萨雷现在平分81分,他们都面临着NTPF的对手——格兹特佩和耶尼。整个前提的关键是贝西克塔斯和加拉在所有的平分规则上是相同的:1)分数;2)直接点;3)头球得分差异;4)面对面得分;

他们在h2h比赛中各得3分;目标差异是+2 / +2;h2h得分是3和3。

第5个规则是总进球的差异-贝西克塔斯是+44,而加拉塔萨雷是+42。

这意味着加拉塔萨雷必须以至少3个进球战胜缺乏动力的马拉蒂亚斯波,才有机会取代贝西克塔斯并赢得冠军。无论如何,这都不是一个奇迹,尤其是以土耳其超级联赛的标准来看,在那里我看到过更令人瞠目的事情发生。我很肯定加拉塔萨雷会做好他们的工作,以3+的差距赢得最后一场比赛,可能会让叶尼也打进一个安慰性的进球。

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