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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A FINE match to bet on! $$$

2024-03-15

比赛分析

比乙

已完赛

星期六2024-03-16 03:00

解读理由

Zulte-Waregem VS Beerschot Wilrijk


Waregem welcome Beershot for this Belgian Challenger Pro League round 26 battle at Elindus Arena early Saturday morning Beijing time. This is the second-highest level of Belgian football. The level of this league is somewhat mediocre by European standards – for a second tier. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of high level by this league's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very strong betting opportunity here! Waregem currently occupy the 4th place in the standings. They have 43 points to their account. Waregem were relegated from the first tier after a horrible last season and have been a disappointment to me this season. I have, consequently, lowered their power rating that reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting lineups – excluding the motivation factor and possible fatigue – caused by a demanding match schedule. They do have potential for some improvement but the bookies seem to give this potential too much emphasis here. Indeed, the biggest bookies that accept the largest bets from customers see the hosts as slim favourites here - offering them odds of around 2.40 to send the visitors home empty-handed. Based on my strongly data-based analysis the visitors deserve to be solid favourites here. We will take the Beerschot +0.5 goals handicap option. The hosts number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 39.44.

The host have scored 42 goals and their number of expected goals (xG) is 37.76. They have conceded 30 goals and have not been either lucky or unlucky in terms of expected goals allowed(xGA). The visitors have an edge in all areas of the game with the expected lineups here. They top the standings with a fine 47 points to their account and have netted 42 goals. They have conceded 25 goals but their number of xGA is only 21.56. Their defence is very well-structured and has no obvious weaknesses. Their offense can improve even further as some of their strikers have missed quite a few good scoring chances. Waregem have not been strong at all at home recently and their fans have been very frustrated lately. They have won just one of their last seven home games – losing four. They have won just one of their last six games and are in decline. Beerschot have lost just one of their last five matches. They beat Lierse K. In their last game but were clearly the better team on the pitch. They had 66% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (17-3), shots on goal (6-1), shots off target, corner kicks (7-0), attacks and dangerous attacks. Before this they faced Dender on the road as narrow underdogs but recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal, shots off target as well as generated more in xG than the hosts 1.67-1.12.



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Zulte-Waregem VS Beerschot Wilrijk


北京时间周六凌晨,Waregem欢迎Beershot参加在Elindus Arena举行的比利时挑战者职业联赛第26轮比赛。这是比利时足球的第二高水平。以欧洲的标准来看,这个联赛的水平有些平庸——作为二级联赛。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的高水平比赛。最重要的是,我们在这里有另一个非常强大的赌博机会!Waregem目前在积分榜上排名第四。他们的账户上有43分。在上个赛季糟糕的表现后,韦茨基姆从一级联赛降级,这个赛季让我很失望。因此,我降低了他们的能量评级,这反映了球队的纯粹等级,他们拥有最好的首发阵容——排除了动力因素和可能的疲劳——由高要求的比赛日程引起的。他们确实有一些改进的潜力,但是博彩公司似乎在这里过分强调了这种潜力。事实上,那些接受客户最大投注的最大博彩公司认为东道主在这里的胜算不大——他们开出的赔率约为2.40,让访客空手而归。基于我强烈的基于数据的分析,游客应该是坚实的最爱在这里。我们将选择啤酒+0.5球的障碍选项。主机的期望点数(xPTS)“仅”为39.44。

东道主打进42球,预期进球数(xG)为37.76。他们已经丢了30个球,在预期失球(xGA)方面既不幸运也不不幸。客队在比赛的各个方面都有优势,因为他们的阵容令人期待。他们在积分榜上以47分领先,并且打进了42个进球。他们丢了25个球,但是他们的射门数只有21.56个。他们的防守结构很好,没有明显的弱点。他们的进攻可以进一步改善,因为他们的一些前锋错过了相当多的进球机会。Waregem最近在主场一点都不强大,他们的球迷最近非常沮丧。在过去的7场主场比赛中,他们只赢了1场,输了4场。他们在过去的六场比赛中只赢了一场,而且正在走下坡路。啤酒队在最近五场比赛中只输了一场。他们在上一场比赛中击败了Lierse k,但在球场上显然是一支更好的球队。他们有66%的控球率,并且有更多的进球尝试(17-3)、射正(6-1)、射偏(7-0)、角球(7-0)、进攻和危险进攻。在此之前,他们以微弱劣势在客场面对邓德尔,但他们的进球次数、射正次数、射偏次数都比东道主多,进球数也比东道主多(1.67:1.12)。

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