In my opinion Qarabaq has a really good chances to avoid big loss in today's match. +2.5 AH on the away side looks like very solid option to play.

First match between both teams finished with draw 2:2 and Bayern was very fortunate to avoid loss as they scored equaliser in last minute. Qarabaq played well, had a 2:0 lead and produced higher expected goals scored value than team from Leverkusen.

Qarabaq is very underrated team in this match up. Super consistent club. Since middle of November they played 19 matches in all competitions and lost only one time - against Braga at home, but that result gave them qualification as they won first match on away. Qarabaq have serious firepower in attack. They don't have any problems with goalscoring as they scored more than one goal in last 10 matches in a row (!!!). They have serious chances to score at least once today.

In last 5 matches in all competitions Leverkusen kept two clean sheets, but in both matches their opponents received red cards in first 30 minutes of the match. Obviously, that had huge impact on the final result. If Leverkusen is able to score more than two goals? If Qarabaq score, they will need 4 goals to cover HC line. In 2024 Leverkusen played 11 matches in all competitions and never scored more than 3. In last 5 consecutive games they not scored more than 2. Their top striker Boniface is still unavailable and this is main reason why Leverkusen have problems with scoring many goals in each game.

At the end of the day, Leverkusen don't need big win to get qualification. One or two goals difference is simply good enough. In those circumstances +2.5 AH on Qarabaq is very valuable.

在我看来，卡塔尔队在今天的比赛中有很大的机会避免大败。客场+2.5 AH看起来是一个非常可靠的选择。

两队的第一场比赛以2:2平局结束，拜仁非常幸运地避免了输球，他们在最后一分钟扳平了比分。卡拉巴赫踢得很好，2:0领先，并且比勒沃库森的球队创造了更高的预期进球值。

在这场比赛中，卡塔尔队被低估了。超级稳定的俱乐部。自11月中旬以来，他们在各项赛事中打了19场比赛，只在主场输给了布拉加一场，但这个结果让他们赢得了首场客场比赛，从而获得了出线资格。卡塔尔军队有强大的进攻火力。他们在进球方面没有任何问题，因为他们在最近10场比赛中连续进了一个以上的球(!!)他们今天至少有机会进一次球。

在所有赛事的最后5场比赛中，勒沃库森保持了2场零封，但两场比赛的对手都在比赛的前30分钟收到了红牌。显然，这对最终结果有很大的影响。如果勒沃库森能进两个以上的球?如果卡塔尔进球，他们将需要4个进球来填补HC线。2024年，勒沃库森在各项赛事中打了11场比赛，从未进球超过3个。在最近连续5场比赛中，他们的得分不超过2分。他们的头号前锋博尼法斯仍然不能上场，这也是勒沃库森每场比赛都不能进很多球的主要原因。

最终，勒沃库森不需要大胜来获得出线资格。一两个进球的差距已经足够好了。在这种情况下+2.5 AH对Qarabaq非常有价值。