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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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2024-03-14

比赛分析

欧冠

已完赛

星期四2024-03-14 04:00

解读理由

Atletico Madrid VS Inter Milan


Atletico Madrid and Inter Milan lock horns in this UEFA Champions League 1/8-finals second leg battle at Metropolitano Stadium early Thursday morning Beijing time. The hosts are a Spanish team, Inter come from Italy. The Spanish LaLiga is the second-best league in the World. The Serie A is the fourth-best league on the planet. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of extremely high level by this competition's standards here. Most importantly, we have yet another very promising chance to make more profit here. Inter are the better team, there is no doubt about this fact. However, they are definitely significantly better than Atletico by pure class! They were the better in the first leg in Italy, taking a 1-0 win. They had 55% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts and generated much more in xG than the Spanish visitors. "Atleti", however, recorded more attacks – 118-102. The visitors were too passive in this game – clearly aiming to take a draw. I want to highlight that Atleti are - one could say " a different team" at home in front of their loud and loyal fans. Indeed, they have won 18 of the last 20 games at Metropolitano Stadium! What an amazing record it is.


Inter are playing a terrific season, there is no denying this. They are going to win the Serie A as they have a stunning 16-point gap to AC Milan. They have taken 75 points but their number of expected points (xPTS) is massively lower. They have a score difference of 70:13 but have been lucky in terms of both expected goals and expected goals allowed. They do not have to win this game and are good at defending a lead. I expect Atleti to be much more aggressive here than in the first leg. However, I do not expect them to take big risks in the first half. The draw is, in my expert opinion, a more probable result than the current odds on the betting market suggest. Atleti lost their last game – 0-2 against Cadiz and it was a poor performance. However, they surely had their minds on this gigantic game, Inter's odds are too low here as this match is a coin toss in my view – a 50/50 game that is. Atleti often raise their level in big games..



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马德里竞技VS国际米兰


北京时间14日凌晨,马德里竞技与国际米兰在大都会体育场展开欧冠八分之一决赛次回合激战。东道主是西班牙队,国米来自意大利。西甲联赛是世界上第二好的联赛。意甲联赛是世界上第四好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以本届比赛的标准来看水平极高的比赛。最重要的是,我们还有一个很有希望的机会在这里赚更多的钱。国米是更好的球队,这是毫无疑问的事实。然而,他们绝对比马竞强得多!他们在与意大利的首回合比赛中表现较好,以1-0取胜。他们有55%的控球率,射门次数和进球率都比西班牙客队高得多。然而,“马竞”记录了更多的攻击——118-102。客队在这场比赛中太被动了——显然是想打平。我想强调的是,马竞在主场面对着他们的忠实球迷,可以说是“一支不同的球队”。事实上,他们在大都会体育场赢了过去20场比赛中的18场!这是一个多么惊人的记录啊。


国米踢了一个非常棒的赛季,这是不可否认的。他们将赢得意甲冠军,因为他们与AC米兰有惊人的16分的差距。他们拿了75分,但他们的期望分数(xPTS)要低得多。他们的比分差距为70:13,但在预期进球和预期进球方面都很幸运。他们不需要赢得这场比赛,他们很擅长防守领先优势。我希望马竞在这里比第一回合更具侵略性。不过,我不认为他们会在上半年冒太大的风险。以我的专家观点来看,平局结果比目前博彩市场上的赔率更有可能出现。马竞上一场0比2输给了加的斯,这是一场糟糕的比赛。然而,他们肯定对这场巨大的比赛有自己的想法,国米的赔率太低了,因为在我看来,这场比赛就像抛硬币一样——50/50的比赛。运动员经常在大型比赛中提高自己的水平。

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