Gimnasia La Plata VS Instituto de Córdoba

Gimnasia La Plata and Instituto lock horns in this Argentinian Copa de la Liga Profesional round 8 battle at Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo early Friday morning Beijing time. This league is of pretty good level by global standards. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of somewhat average level by this league's standards here. Most importantly we have a very interesting match to bet on here! We have won five of the last six bets betting on this league. The hosts currently occupy the 9th place Group A standings. A total of 14 clubs compete in both groups. Instituto on the other hand, are in 6th in Group A! They have 11 points to their account at the moment. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 9.12. They have netted the ball nine times but I have not been overly impressed by their offense in most of the seven games.. Their strikers are not very skilled individuals for this level. Their attacks are often a bit too slow.. However, their offensive structure is pretty good. We have to thank their coach for this. Gimnasia La Plata, too, have netted the ball nine times in this league. However, their number of xG is 10.98. In terms of defensive capability the visitors do have an edge – but only marginal. Indeed, they have conceded six goals but their number of expected goals allowed is 7.88. The hosts, on the other hand, have conceded nine goals but their number of xGA is 8.54.

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts are clearly the better team here. Indeed, their squad has an estimated market value of about 22 million euros. In my expert opinion this is too low though. I would say that around 26 million would be a fair number. Three of their players are undervalued. The Instituto players have a total market value of approximately 15 million which is marginally too low though. Instituto have not been able to beat Gimnasia La Plata in any of the last six games between the two teams. However, only two of these matches – played in 2023 are actually relevant. The visitors have lost two or their last games – without scoring a single goal! In their last game they were disappointing and lost to Godoy Cruz 0-2 at home as clear favourites – priced around 1.85 to win by the bookies. They had 63% ball possession but the visitors generated more in xG – 1.87-1.45 to be precise. Before this they faced Independiente at home as narrow favourites on the betting market. They had 55% ball possession but I was disappointed with their performance. Indeed, they recorded only one shot on target - the visitors managed four. Both teams recorded nine goal attempts but Independiente generated much more in xG - 1.34-0.52.  Gimnasia La Plata faced Estudiantes L.P in their last game as solid underdogs. They were not at their best but took a point through a goalless draw. The hosts managed 16 goal attempts – the visitors had 17 and also generated more in xG. Odds of around 2.60 are widely available on the hosts to win on the betting market and this is, based on my in-depth expert analysis, too high! With the expected lineups -  taking the substantial home advantage into account - Gimnasia La Plata have a 44% chance to win.

Gimnasia La Plata VS Instituto de Córdoba

北京时间周五凌晨，拉普拉塔Gimnasia La Plata和Instituto Instituto在阿根廷西甲联赛第8轮的比赛中，在Juan Carmelo Zerillo球场进行了较量。按照国际标准来看，这个联赛的水平相当不错。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的足球投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。最重要的是，我们有一场非常有趣的比赛可以下注!最近六次赌这个联赛，我们赢了五次。东道主目前在A组排名第九。两组共有14个俱乐部参加比赛。另一方面，Instituto在A组排名第六!目前他们的账户上有11分。然而，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有9.12。他们有9次进球，但在这7场比赛的大部分时间里，我对他们的进攻并没有留下深刻的印象。他们的前锋在这个级别上技术不是很好。他们的攻击通常有点太慢了。然而，他们的进攻结构相当不错。我们必须为此感谢他们的教练。拉普拉塔(Gimnasia La Plata)在联赛中也有9次进球。但是，它们的xG数是10.98。就防守能力而言，客队确实有优势，但也只是一点点。事实上，他们丢了6个球，但他们的预期失球数是7.88个。另一方面，东道主虽然丢了9个球，但他们的xGA值为8.54。

根据德国一家知名且受人尊敬的网站Transfermarkt.com，东道主显然是这里更好的球队。事实上，这支球队的市值估计在2200万欧元左右。在我的专家看来，这太低了。我想说2600万是一个合理的数字。他们的三名球员被低估了。Instituto球员的总市场价值约为1500万英镑，虽然这个数字略低。Instituto在两队最近的六场比赛中都没能击败Gimnasia La Plata。然而，这些比赛中只有两场——在2023年举行——实际上是相关的。客队输掉了两场比赛，一球未进!在上一场比赛中，他们的表现令人失望，在主场0-2输给了戈多伊克鲁兹，尽管他们显然是夺冠热门——博彩公司开出的赔率约为1.85。他们有63%的控球率，但客队的控球率更高——准确地说，是1.87比1.45。在此之前，他们在国内面对的是独立队在博彩市场上的微弱优势。他们有55%的控球率，但我对他们的表现感到失望。事实上，他们只射正了一次，而客队射正了四次。两支球队都有9次进球尝试，但独立队在xG - 1.34-0.52的比赛中创造了更多的进球尝试。Gimnasia La Plata在他们的上一场比赛中面对学生l.p.，他们是坚实的弱者。他们状态不佳，但在一场0比0的平局中拿到了一分。主队有16次射门机会，客队有17次，而且在上个赛季创造了更多的进球机会。在投注市场上，大约2.60的赔率在东道主上广泛可用，根据我深入的专家分析，这太高了!根据预期的阵容——考虑到主场优势——拉普拉塔有44%的机会获胜。