Atlético de Madrid is the favorite for me.

The previous game finished 0:1 for Athletic, who scored from penalty but overall the game was very equal, with similar chances for both teams and also similar number of expected goals (1.78 for Atletico, 1.58 for Athletic). However, Athletic’s goalkeeper Aguirrezabala made a great performance with good saves, making the difference in the game.

Athletic is not in their best form in my opinion. They recently drew 0:0 against bottom and worst team in the league Almeria, struggled a lot to beat Girona (3:2) in a game where they conceded a lot and deserved to lose, whilst lost 3:1 in their last game against Betis. That game was the worst of the season for them, being anticompetitive, without any pace and not able to impose their plan. They also had to play since 40’ with 10 players, so they have more fatigue for this game.

They look tired, and some players who were performing very well at the beginning of the season are in poor form now, especially wingers Iñaki and Nico Williams.

Furthermore, they have to deal with two key injuries. CB Yeray and LB Yuri are injured, and Yuri’s replacement Lekue is doubtful.

The key of the match will be to see a strong performance of Athletic, as they are doing this season at home. However, their recent performances are not very optimistic, especially because players look tired, with less pace and rhythm, whilst they are also being much less effective upfront and are conceding more in defense.

On the other hand, Atletico is showing a very poor version playing as a visitor, with awful performances. They have won just one of the last 6 games, which was against newcomer Las Palmas. Even against bottom Almeria weren’t able to win.

However, they were favorites to qualify here and should be able to prove why. They have much more quality and experience, and physically I see them better than Athletic. Just some players are in poor form, but I see much more potential. Athletic doesn't have players like Morata, Memphis or De Paul, who are game-changers. Player by player, Atletico is way superior to Athletic.

Atletico will try to play a slow-paced game, something that could be able to do due to the poor form and pace of Athletic at the moment, who also doesn’t need to win here so probably will accept a slow-paced game. And in this scenario is where Atletico clearly has the advantage.

Previous game was very equal and a draw is also enough for Athletic, so they won’t take too many risks and will be happy to defend the draw in the last minutes if there’s that situation. Furthermore, Atlético is the better team here so I don’t see them losing again.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

我最喜欢的是马德里航空公司。

在上一场比赛中，马竞以0:1的比分结束了比赛，他们通过点球取得了进球，但总的来说，比赛的比分非常接近，两队的机会差不多，预期进球数也差不多(马竞1.78，马竞1.58)。然而，竞技的门将阿奎里扎巴拉做出了出色的扑救，在比赛中发挥了重要作用。

在我看来，竞技队还没有达到最佳状态。他们最近以0:0战平了联赛排名垫底的球队阿尔梅里亚，在一场丢了很多球的比赛中艰难地击败了赫罗纳(3:2)，他们罪有应得，而在上一场对阵贝蒂斯的比赛中，他们以3:1输掉了比赛。那场比赛对他们来说是本赛季最糟糕的一场比赛，他们缺乏竞争力，没有任何节奏，也无法实施他们的计划。他们从40年代就开始打10人的比赛，所以他们对这场比赛更加疲劳。

他们看起来很疲惫，一些在赛季初表现很好的球员现在状态不佳，尤其是边锋Iñaki和尼科-威廉姆斯。

此外，他们还必须处理两个关键的伤病。耶雷和尤里都受伤了，而尤里的替代者勒库也不确定。

这场比赛的关键将是看到竞技的强劲表现，就像他们本赛季在主场所做的那样。然而，他们最近的表现并不是很乐观，特别是因为球员们看起来很疲惫，速度和节奏都变慢了，同时他们的前场效率也大大降低，防守上的失球也越来越多。

另一方面，马竞作为客队的表现非常糟糕，表现糟糕。在过去的6场比赛中，他们只赢了一场，对手是新人拉斯帕尔马斯。即使对阵垫底的阿尔梅里亚也没能赢。

然而，他们是晋级的大热门，应该能够证明原因。他们有更多的能力和经验，在身体上我认为他们比竞技更好。只是有些球员状态不佳，但我看到了更多的潜力。竞技没有像莫拉塔、孟菲斯或德保罗这样的球员，他们能改变比赛。从球员的角度来看，马竞比马竞强多了。

马竞将尝试打一场慢节奏的比赛，由于竞技目前糟糕的状态和节奏，他们可以做到这一点，他们也不需要在这里获胜，所以可能会接受慢节奏的比赛。在这种情况下，马竞显然具有优势。

上一场比赛双方势均力敌，平局对竞技来说也足够了，所以他们不会冒太大的风险，如果出现这种情况，他们会很乐意在最后几分钟捍卫平局。此外，亚特兰蒂斯是这里更好的球队，所以我不认为他们会再输了。

03月01日毕尔巴鄂竞技 VS 马德里竞技比赛分析直播