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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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8/10 last WON in this league! $$$

2024-02-21

比赛分析

英乙

已完赛

星期三2024-02-21 03:45

解读理由

Milton Keynes Dons VS Wrexham


MK Dons and Wrexham lock horns in this League Two battle at Stadium MK in Milton Keynes early Wednesday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-highest level of English football. This league is definitely the best fourth tier on the planet. Most teams play pretty physical and simple "traditional English football" and players are expected to fight for every ball. However, Wrexham usually play a little more modern and entertaining football - with good results! Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a game of much better than average level by this league's standards here. Most importantly we have yet another very interesting game to bet on here! We have won eight of the last 10 picks betting on this league! The visitors currently occupy 3rd place in the standings. They have played better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. Consequently, I have significantly raised their power rating as the season has progressed. The bookies seemingly have not reacted enough to their strong performances! The power rating reflects the teams' overall class – excluding motivation factors and possible fatigue – caused by gruelling match schedule. They have rich owners, a strong fan-base - the club, as whole, is on the rise! They were promoted to this level after a very strong last season. I would not be at all surprised to see them being promoted to League One for next season. They have a fine 58 points in their pocket. Their goal difference is 58:42 and this is much better than that of the hosts. Furthermore, according to a well-known German website the Wrexham squad has an estimated value of about eight million euros. In my expert opinion this is too low. I would say 10.50 million would be a more realistic number.. The hosts' players are valued at around 6 million. MK Dons have scored 51 goals and have allowed 43 goals. They have grabbed 54 points and their number of expected points (xPTS) is a little lower. They occupy the 4th place in the standings.

Wrexham are the better team here, especially in terms of offensive quality. The biggest bookies with the largest stake limits see MK Dons as solid favourites here – offering them odds of around 2.25 to send the visitors home empty-handed. They have been strong at home and Wrexham have been mediocre on the road. Indeed, taking the substantial home advantage into account this match is, based on my sophisticated analysis, a coin toss – without a favourite. This means that the Wrexham +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious smart bet here! They played a few disappointing games a few weeks ago but have won two of their last matches. In their last game they beat Notts Co. 1-0 at home. The visitors had a whopping 76% ball possession but Wrexham recorded many more goal attempts (9-6). They also generated more in xG – 1.44-0.66. Before this they defeated Sutton 2-1 on the road despite not being quite at their best. It was a pretty balanced battle as a whole. Sutton played better than usual in this clash. MK Dons beat Swindon away from home 2-1 in their last game but the hosts were the better team on the pitch. They recorded many more goal attempts (12-9), corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks - 48-33. The xG numbers were 1.33-0.89. Before this MK Dons were extremely vulnerable defensively - losing 0-4 to Bradford City on the road! MK Dons had 72% ball possession but the hosts recorded more shots on goal (7-3) as well as generated much more in xG.



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米尔顿凯恩斯VS雷克瑟姆


北京时间周三凌晨,在米尔顿凯恩斯的MK球场,MK唐斯和雷克瑟姆将在这场英乙联赛中展开较量。这是英格兰足球的第四高水平。这个联盟绝对是这个星球上最好的第四梯队。大多数球队踢的是身体对抗和简单的“传统英式足球”,球员们要为每一个球而战。然而,雷克瑟姆通常踢的是更现代、更有趣的足球,而且结果也不错!足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场比这个联赛的平均水平好得多的比赛。最重要的是,我们还有一个非常有趣的游戏可以下注!我们在过去的10次选秀中赢了8次!客队目前在积分榜上排名第三。他们的表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。因此,随着赛季的进展,我大大提高了他们的能量评级。博彩公司似乎对他们的强劲表现反应不够!能量评级反映了球队的整体水平——不包括激励因素和可能的疲劳——由紧张的比赛日程引起的。他们有富有的老板,强大的球迷基础——整个俱乐部正在崛起!他们在上个赛季表现强劲后升到了这个级别。如果他们下赛季升入英甲,我一点也不会感到惊讶。他们被罚了58分。他们的净胜球是58:42,比东道主好得多。此外,根据一家知名的德国网站,雷克瑟姆队的估计价值约为800万欧元。在我的专家看来,这太低了。我认为1050万是更现实的数字。东道主球员的身价约为600万美元。曼联进了51球,丢了43球。他们拿到了54分,他们的期望值(xPTS)略低。他们在积分榜上排名第四。

雷克瑟姆是一支更好的球队,尤其是在进攻质量方面。最大的博彩公司拥有最大的赌注限制,认为MK Dons在这里是最受欢迎的,他们提供了2.25左右的赔率,让游客空手而归。他们在主场很强大,雷克瑟姆在客场表现平平。事实上,根据我的复杂分析,考虑到主场的巨大优势,这场比赛就像抛硬币一样,没有赢家。这意味着雷克瑟姆+0.5个进球障碍显然是明智的赌注!几周前,他们打了几场令人失望的比赛,但在最近的比赛中赢了两场。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场1-0击败了诺茨队。客队的控球率高达76%,但雷克瑟姆的进球次数更多(9比6)。它们在xG - 1.44-0.66中也产生了更多。在此之前,他们在客场2-1击败了萨顿,尽管他们并没有处于最佳状态。总的来说,这是一场相当平衡的战斗。萨顿在这场比赛中比平时打得好。在上一场比赛中,曼联客场2-1击败了斯文顿,但是主队在球场上表现得更好。他们有更多的进球尝试(12胜9负)、角球、进攻和危险进攻——48胜33负。xG值为1.33 ~ 0.89。在此之前,切尔西的防守不堪一击——客场0-4不敌布拉德福德城!MK·顿斯有72%的控球率,但主队的射门次数更多(7-3),并且在比赛中产生了更多的进球。

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