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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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【2月10日】A GREAT match to bet on! $$$ 意甲 罗马VS国际米兰

2024-02-10

比赛分析

主队罗马LOGO

罗马

意甲

已完赛

星期日2024-02-11 01:00

客队国际米兰LOGO

国际米兰

解读理由

AS Roma VS Inter Milan


Roma welcome Inter for this Italian Serie A round 24 battle at Stadio Olimpico early Sunday morning Beijing time. This is the fourth-best league on the planet. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry football bettors can expect a match of very high level by this league's standards here! Most importantly we have yet another very promising game to bet on here. We have won 7/8 last picks betting on Serie A! Inter are having a strong season – especially results-wise. They currently top the standings. Inter have a fine 57 points to their account. However, their number of expected points is significantly lower – 48.43. Even so, they are the best team in this league. They do not have any obvious weaknesses in their game. My main point here is that the difference in class between the two teams here is much smaller than the standings would suggest. Roma are, after all, one of the biggest teams in Italy and have very loud and enthusiastic home fans. I expect the stadium to be sold out here and the atmosphere will surely be great! I want to highlight that Roma have lost just one game at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A this season. Their score difference at home is very good – 28:9 to be precise. Roma have improved a lot under their new head coach, de Rossi, who replaced Jose Mourinho last month. De Rossi is a true Roma legend as a player and is very enthusiastic about the club. The fans love him a lot too! Their team spirit seems to be great and there is a positive vibe around the team at the moment. Roma are currently in 4th place with 38 points in their pocket. Their number of xPTS is 40.33. They have scored 40 goals and have not been either lucky or unlucky in terms of expected goals (xG). Roma have conceded 26 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 22.34. They do have potential for improvement in all areas of the game!

Inter have scored a whopping 51 goals and their number of xG is only a bit smaller. However, their number of goals allowed – 10 – is very misleading. Indeed, their number of xGA is 18.76! They can be vulnerable against fast counter attacks.. Roma - with several fast offensive players – are in fact pretty good at this! I expect Inter to have around 55%-60% ball possession here and Roma to mainly rely on counter attacks.. Inter, of course, have an edge over Roma in all areas of the game and deserve to be the favourites here. The biggest bookies who accept the largest bets from customers see the visitors as very clear favourites here offering them odds of around 1.90 to win. Taking the massive home advantage and Roma's impressive form under De Rossi, this is way too low. . In the Serie A the home advantage is on average bigger than in many other European leagues. Inter have a 43% chance to take all three points here. Roma +0.5 goals handicap is the smart betting option here! Roma have won all four games under de Rossi – scoring an impressive 10 goals in these games. In their last game they crushed Cagliari at home – after recording many more goal attempts and shots on goal. They also generated 2.87 in xG - -Cagliari managed only 0.44. Before this they were not at their best but still beat Salernitana 2-1 away from home. I also want to mention that the hosts played a better game than they usually do. Roma did have 62% ball possession and recorded more than the hosts in xG. In round 21 they beat Verona 2-1 at home and on the 24th of January they beat Al Shabab 2-1 in a friendly. Inter, too, have played well recently – winning six games in a row but have, as a result, become too hot on the betting market. . In their last game they deservedly beat Juventus 1-0 at home – generating more in xG. Before this they were disappointing away from home against Fiorentina as clear favourites on the betting market. Inter "robbed" three points through a 1-0 win but Fiorentina had 58% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts (14-8), total passes, completed passes, attacks and dangerous attacks! Moreover, they generated much more than Inter in xG – 1.45-0.55. N. Gonzalez even missed a penalty in the 77th minute..



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

罗马VS国际米兰


北京时间周日凌晨,罗马将在奥林匹克球场迎接国米参加意甲第24轮比赛。这是世界上第四好的联盟。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的足球投注者可以期待一场按照联赛标准非常高水平的比赛!最重要的是,我们还有另一场很有希望的比赛可以押注。我们上次赌意甲赢了7/8 !国米正在经历一个强劲的赛季,尤其是在成绩方面。他们目前排名第一。国际米兰被罚了57分。然而,他们的期望分数明显较低,为48.43分。即便如此,他们仍然是联盟中最好的球队。他们在比赛中没有任何明显的弱点。我的主要观点是,两支球队之间的等级差距比排名所显示的要小得多。毕竟,罗马是意大利最大的球队之一,拥有非常大声和热情的主场球迷。我希望这里的球场会被卖光,气氛肯定会很棒!我想强调的是罗马本赛季在奥林匹克球场只输过一场比赛。他们在主场的比分差距很大,确切地说是28:9。在上个月接替穆里尼奥的新主教练德罗西的带领下,罗马取得了很大的进步。德罗西作为球员是罗马的传奇人物,他对俱乐部充满热情。球迷们也很喜欢他!他们的团队精神似乎很好,现在球队周围有一种积极的氛围。罗马目前以38分排名第四。他们的xPTS数是40.33。他们已经进了40个球,在预期进球方面既不幸运也不不幸(xG)。罗马已经丢了26个球,他们的预期失球数(xGA)是22.34个。他们在游戏的各个方面都有改进的潜力!

国米打进了惊人的51球,而他们的xG数量只少了一点点。然而,他们的失球数——10个——很容易误导人。事实上,他们的xGA数是18.76!他们在面对快速反击时很脆弱。罗马拥有几名快速进攻球员,事实上他们在这方面做得很好!我预计国米的控球率在55%-60%左右,罗马主要依靠反击。当然,国际米兰在比赛的各个方面都比罗马有优势,应该成为最受欢迎的球队。那些从顾客那里接受最大赌注的最大的博彩公司认为游客是非常明显的热门,他们提供1.90左右的赔率获胜。考虑到巨大的主场优势和罗马在德罗西的带领下令人印象深刻的状态,这实在是太低了。在意甲联赛中,主场优势比其他许多欧洲联赛都要大。国米在这里有43%的机会拿到全部三分。罗马+0.5个进球障碍是明智的投注选择!在德罗西的带领下,罗马取得了四场比赛的全胜,并在这四场比赛中打入了令人印象深刻的10球。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场击败了卡利亚里——他们的射门次数和射门次数都比卡利亚里多。他们在xG也有2.87个进球,卡利亚里只有0.44个。在此之前,他们并没有处于最佳状态,但仍然在客场2-1击败了萨勒尼塔纳。我还想提一下,东道主踢了一场比平时更好的比赛。罗马有62%的控球率,并且比东道主的控球率更高。第21轮他们在主场2-1击败维罗纳,1月24日又在友谊赛中2-1击败青年党。国米最近也踢得不错,连赢六场,但结果是,在博彩市场上变得太热了。在上一场比赛中,他们在主场1-0击败了尤文图斯,这是他们当之无愧的。在此之前,他们在客场对阵佛罗伦萨的比赛中表现令人失望,而佛罗伦萨在投注市场上显然是夺冠热门。国米以1-0的比分“抢”了3分,但佛罗伦萨的控球率为58%,进球次数(14-8)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数和危险进攻次数都要多得多!此外,它们在xG - 1.45-0.55中的生成量远高于Inter。冈萨雷斯甚至在第77分钟罚丢了一个点球。

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