Jong PSV Eindhoven (Youth) VS Willem II

Jong PSV and Willem II lock horns in this Dutch Eerste Divisie round 23 battle at De Herdgang early Tuesday morning Beijing time. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty average level by this league's standards. This is the second-highest level of Dutch football and the level of this league is pretty high – for a second tier. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that Willem II are the better team here by pure class. The key question is: How much stronger than the hosts are they.. They are in 2nd place in my power rating that reflects the teams' pure class excluding motivation factors as well as possible fatigue – caused by a demanding match schedule. Jong PSV, on the other hand, are in 15th place in this rating. The visitors have performed better than I – or probably many other professional bettors would have expected before the season kicked off. Last season they finished in 4th place. The hosts ended up in 14th place after the 2022-2023 season. Not that much has changed for this season in terms of pure class. I have to highlight that Willem II have had quite a lot of luck on their side and have, as a result, become too hot on the betting market. We must oppose them here! They have a fine 49 points in their pocket but their number of expected points (xPTS) is "only" 43.22. Many of their players have played above their normal level so far this season. This very probably will not go on for the rest of the season. They have netted the ball 47 times in this league – this is the second-highest number in the league. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 43.56. Their defence has been solid but does still have some weaknesses. They have conceded 19 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is higher. They are not great at defending against fast counter attacks. I believe the hosts will mainly rely on those as well as free kicks, corner kicks – or a possible penalty kick to score here.

Willem II have won three of their last six games. In their last game they faced Jong Ajax, a pretty lowly team, at home as huge favourites. Indeed, they were priced around 1.30 to win by the bookies. Yes, they were the better team on the pitch but not by a wide margin. It was -  in the end -  a 1-1 draw. The hosts had 52% ball possession and recorded 135 attacks – the visitors managed 117. The hosts currently occupy the 16th place with 20 points to their account. However, their number of xPTS is 24.67. They can improve in all areas of the game as the season progresses. They have not taken many wins lately but have lost just one of their last five matches! In their last game they crushed Leeds U21 7-0 away from home in an Premier League International Cup clash. What a fine offensive performance it was! This win surely boosted their level of confidence.. The bookies offer the visitors odds of around 1.55 to win here but this is, based on my in-depth analysis, way too low! They have an "only" 55% chance of winning with the expected lineups. We will take the Jong PSV +1.5 goals handicap option with a big chance of winning. Lastly, I want to mention that according to a well-known German website, Transfermarkt.com, the visitors are only marginally the bigger team here in terms of squads' estimated market values – about nine million euros vs some eight million..

埃因霍温(青年)VS威廉二世

北京时间周二凌晨，Jong PSV和威廉二世在德赫德冈进行了荷兰乙级联赛第23轮的比赛。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以联赛标准衡量的相当平均水平的比赛。这是荷兰足球的第二高水平，这个联赛的水平相当高——对于第二梯队来说。当然，毫无疑问，威廉二世在这里绝对是更好的球队。关键问题是:它们比宿主强多少……他们在我的力量评级中排名第二，这反映了球队的纯粹等级，不包括动机因素和可能的疲劳-由高要求的比赛时间表引起的。另一方面，Jong PSV在该排名中排名第15位。客队的表现比我好，也可能比许多其他职业投注者在赛季开始前所预期的要好。上个赛季他们排名第四。东道主在2022-2023赛季结束后排名第14位。就纯粹的等级而言，本赛季并没有太大的变化。我必须强调的是，威廉二世运气很好，因此在博彩市场上变得太火了。我们必须在这里反对他们!他们的口袋里有49分的罚款，但他们的期望分数(xPTS)“只有”43.22分。本赛季到目前为止，他们的许多球员都超出了正常水平。这很可能不会在本赛季剩下的时间里继续下去。他们在这个联赛中有47次进球，这是联盟第二高的数字。他们的预期目标数(xG)为43.56。他们的防守很稳固，但仍有一些弱点。他们丢了19个球，但他们的预期失球数(xGA)更高。他们不擅长防守快速的反击。我相信主队将主要依靠这些以及任意球、角球——或者可能的点球来得分。

威廉二世在最近六场比赛中赢了三场。在上一场比赛中，他们在主场面对的是一支实力相当弱的球队——阿贾克斯。事实上，博彩公司对它们的定价在1.30左右。是的，他们在球场上表现得更好，但差距并不大。最后，双方打成1-1平局。主队有52%的控球率，135次进攻，客队117次。东道主目前以20分排名第16位。然而，他们的xPTS数量为24.67。随着赛季的进行，他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高。他们最近没有取得多少胜利，但在最近的五场比赛中只输了一场!在上一场英超国际杯比赛中，他们在客场7-0击败利兹联队U21。多么好的进攻表现啊!这场胜利无疑增强了他们的信心。博彩公司提供的游客赔率约为1.55，但根据我的深入分析，这太低了!按照预期的阵容，他们“只有”55%的获胜机会。我们将采取Jong PSV +1.5个进球障碍选项，有很大的获胜机会。最后，我想提一下，根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据，从球员的市场价值估计来看，客队只是稍微大一点——大约900万欧元对800万欧元。