Oud-Heverlee Leuven VS Royal Antwerp

Leuven and Antwerp lock horns in this Belgian Cup quarter-finals battle at Den Dreef early Thursday morning Beijing time. Both teams play in the Jupiler Pro League, which is the first tier of Belgian football. The level of this league is pretty high by European standards – but still far from the level of the top-4 clubs. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of slight average level by this competition's standards. There is, of course, no doubt about the fact that the visitors are clearly the better team here. The question is how much better they are.. We also have to take into account that the visitors' head coach is expected to probably do more squad rotation than the hosts' head coach here. To analyse the match and calculate probabilities we have to take a look at the both teams' performances and number of expected points (xPTS) in the Jupiler Pro League. Potential for improvement is of course an important factor. Last season Antwerp finished in 3rd place after the regular season – Leuven, on the other hand, played better than I, the bookies or probably even their own fans would have expected. Indeed, Leuven ended up in 10th place. Not that much has changed for this season. Leuven have not been as good as last season – this an unarguable fact. However, the bookies have reacted too heavily to their disappointing results so far. I need to highlight that they have been unlucky in terms of xPTS. This number is 21.13 but in reality they have only 17 points to their account. Their offense has worked relatively well - despite not looking so strong on paper. Leuven have netted the ball 26 goals in the league. 

Leuven's offensive structure is pretty good. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 28.65. Their defence has not been solid – mainly thanks to too many silly defensive mistakes. However, at home they have defended reasonably well this season. They can definitely improve in this area of the game. They have conceded 39 goals and their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 36.53. They have played well recently – winning two of their last three games. In their last game they faced Anderlecht, a big team who are currently in second place. Leuven were very clear underdogs in this home game according to the bookies but fought very well in front of their loyal fans. The visitors had 72% ball possession but the hosts recorded more in xG 0.95-0.72. Both teams recorded four shots on goal. It was in the end a justified 1-1 draw. The visitors have won only one of their last four games. They are in 6th place in the standings with 35 points – their xPTS is 33.12. Away from home they have won just two of the 10 games in the Jupiler League. Their odds of around 1.60 to beat Leuven in the 90 minutes of play are way too low. We will take the Leuven +1.5 goals handicap. The hosts are expected to be pretty defensive here – mainly trying to hurt the visitors through fast counter attacks..

鲁汶VS皇家安特卫普

北京时间周四凌晨，鲁汶队和安特卫普队将在比利时杯四分之一决赛的登德利夫球场展开激战。两支球队都参加了木星职业联赛，这是比利时足球的第一梯队。按照欧洲的标准，这个联赛的水平是相当高的，但距离前四名俱乐部的水平还很远。足球迷和我们这些认真的、渴望利润的投注者可以期待一场比赛，以这项比赛的标准来看，这是一场略高于平均水平的比赛。当然，毫无疑问，客队在这里显然是一支更好的球队。问题是他们有多好。我们还必须考虑到客队的主教练可能会比主队的主教练做更多的轮换。为了分析比赛和计算概率，我们必须看看两支球队在Jupiler职业联赛中的表现和预期积分(xPTS)。改进的潜力当然是一个重要因素。上个赛季，安特卫普在常规赛结束后排名第三，而另一方面，鲁汶的表现比我、博彩公司甚至他们自己的球迷所期望的都要好。事实上，鲁汶大学最终排名第十。这个赛季没有太大的变化。鲁汶没有上赛季那么好，这是不争的事实。然而，到目前为止，博彩公司对他们令人失望的结果反应过度。我需要强调的是，他们在xPTS方面很不走运。这个数字是21.13，但实际上他们的账户上只有17分。他们的进攻表现相对不错——尽管在纸面上看起来不那么强大。鲁汶队在联赛中打进26球。

鲁汶的进攻结构相当不错。他们的预期进球数(xG)是28.65。他们的防守并不稳固——主要是由于太多愚蠢的防守失误。然而，他们本赛季在主场的防守相当不错。他们在这方面肯定可以提高。他们已经丢了39个球，他们的预期失球数(xGA)是36.53个。他们最近打得很好，最近三场比赛赢了两场。在上一场比赛中，他们面对的是安德莱赫特，一支目前排名第二的强队。根据博彩公司的数据，鲁汶在这场主场比赛中明显处于劣势，但在他们忠实的球迷面前表现得非常出色。客队的控球率为72%，而主队的控球率则为0.95-0.72。两队都有4次射门入球。最终以1比1平定了比分。客队最近四场比赛只赢了一场。他们在积分榜上以35分排名第六，他们的xPTS是33.12。在客场，他们在10场木星联赛中只赢了2场。他们在90分钟的比赛中击败鲁汶队的赔率只有1.60左右，这实在太低了。我们将采取鲁汶+1.5个进球的不利条件。主队在这里的防守很严密，主要是通过快速反击来打击客队。