Coventry City VS Oxford United

Oxford challenge Coventry in this English FA Cup 1/32-finals battle at Coventry Building Society Arena Saturday evening Beijing time. Challenge is all they will probably be capable of here.. Indeed, there is a significant difference between the teams in all areas of the game! I do not often bet on heavy favourites at relatively low odds but will make an exception here. Football fans and us serious bettors – with a long-term profit in mind - can expect a match of somewhat mediocre level by this competition's standards.. The FA Cup is probably the best-known and most prestigious cup competition on the planet. I expect the host to be aggressive right from the kickoff here – and dominate the events for the most of the 90 minutes. Their fans are not top-10 level in England but still offer the team a massive boost! Let's start with some basic facts: Coventry are playing a strong season in the Championship, the second tier of English football. They have a fine 37 points to their account and are in the fight for a place in the Playoffs – for promotion to the Premier League that is!  The bookies should stop underestimating them! They have netted the ball 38 times in this league and do lack some individual skill – compared to the three best teams in the Championship - Leicester, Southampton and Leeds. However, Coventry can surely improve in this area of the game! They should have enough firepower to break the inferior visitors' defence – probably at least twice! The Coventry defence has been solid and they have allowed only 28 goals in the Championship. This is five goals less than Ipswich (2nd place) and three goals less than Southampton (3rd)..   I would not be at all surprised if the hosts were to take a win by a margin of more than one goal. Odds of around 2.55 are widely available on the -1.5 goals handicap at the time of posting this preview but the recommended bet is Coventry to win at the odds of around 1.60. I expect the odds to drop before the kickoff as smart money is expected to pile up on the hosts! The chance of winning for the 9th time in a row is 71%!

Coventry will welcome Liam Kitching back into the squad this weekend, with the defender having served a suspension in the team's 3-1 win over Middlesbrough last week. Coventry have not reported any fitness issues from the contest with Middlesbrough, but there are expected to be some changes to the starting side, with some younger players/players that have played less minutes set to be given chances to shine here. .Fabio Tavares, Kyle McFadzean and Jamie Allen may be among those to come into the side. Matthew Godden and Jay Dasilva are also set to start on Saturday. However, it seems the bookies seem to give the squad ration factor too much emphasis here.. Coventry have a pretty deep squad – for a Championship team – I mean. As for the visitors, head coach Buckingham could name the same starting eleven as against Grimsby in the previous round of the competition on the 2nd of December. Oxford players to watch are Mark Harris and Cameron Brannagan have both netted seven times for the visitors this season, and these two are expected to be in the starting eleven in this game. Ruben Rodrigues, who has netted six times in 29 matches, is also set to be in the starting eleven for the League One team. However, all these three players are a bit overvalued in my expert opinion.. Oxford are in the 5th place in the League One table with 46 points in their pocket. However, they have had a lot of luck on their side this season. Indeed, their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 39.98! Last season they struggled and finished in 19th place. I want to highlight that many of their players have overperformed this season! They have been - and are once again - getting too much respect on the betting market. Let's remember that the difference between the Championship and League One is substantial. If this match was played at Kassam Stadium Oxford might well have a decent chance but away from home I believe they will be too passive and that the pressure will get too high for their defence to deal with – in the second half at the latest.. Coventry are a very fit team and will surely keep pushing hard till the final whistle! The match will be replayed if the result is a draw and I expect this to give Coventry extra motivation to really go for the win – even with some risk.. An extra game is surely not what they want as they want to maximise their chances of making the dream of returning to the highest tier a reality! Them being promoted would, in all honesty, be a surprise though..

Coventry have been strong at home and have lost just one of their last 11 games in front of their loyal fans. Oxford have won two of their last six away games. Furthermore, Coventry have not lost any of their last seven matches and have looked confident on the pitch recently. They were very strong in their last game – beating Middlesbrough 3-1 away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies. They had 55% ball possession and also recorded many more attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, they generated 2.34 in expected goals (xG). The hosts managed only 1.24. Before this they were unlucky not to beat Swansea at home. It was a 2-2 draw but Coventry recorded many more goal attempts, corner kicks and dangerous attacks. The xG numbers were 2.67-1.09. On the 26th of December they beat Sheffield Wednesday 2-0 at home but the visitors, too, had their chances to score. There is no denying that the final score does unarguably flatter Coventry..  Oxford, on the other hand, beat Charlton 2-1 away from home in their last match but the match could easily have gone either way.. Both teams had eight goal attempts and the hosts had many more corners (9-3), attacks and dangerous attacks. Oxford did generate marginally more in xG though – 1.03-1,01 to be precise. Before this Oxford were awful and lost to Derby, a worse team than the number of points they have would reflect, 2-3 at home. Derby had a whopping 67.44% ball possession and recorded many more goal attempts and attacks – 153-53. Oxford recorded only a pathetic 16 dangerous attacks – Derby's number was 71! Lastly I want to mention that according to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, Coventry are a much significantly bigger team here! Indeed, their players have an estimated market value of about 51 million euros. This is, however, still too low in my expert opinion.. At least three players are undervalued. I would say that 62-63 million would be a more realistic number.. The Oxford squad is valued at only about 11 million. This number is more or less correct. Let's also remember that the hosts also have a better manager – both in terms of tactical skills and leadership skills! There will be no more picks posted for Saturday.

GOOD LUCK to all my fans!

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考文垂VS牛津联队

北京时间周六晚，英国足总杯1/32决赛将在考文垂建房协会体育馆举行，牛津将迎战考文垂。他们在这里可能只会挑战…的确，两支球队在比赛的各个方面都有很大的不同!我通常不会以相对较低的赔率押注大热门，但这次我会破例。足球迷和我们这些认真的投注者——考虑到长期的利润——可以期待一场以这项比赛的标准来看有点平庸的比赛。足总杯可能是这个星球上最知名、最负盛名的杯赛了。我希望东道主从开球开始就有侵略性，并且在90分钟的大部分时间里主导比赛。他们的球迷在英格兰算不上前十，但仍然给球队带来了巨大的鼓舞!让我们从一些基本事实开始:考文垂在英冠联赛中表现强劲，这是英国足球的第二梯队。他们现在已经积了37分，正在为季后赛的席位而战——为了升入英超!博彩公司应该停止低估他们!他们在联赛中有38次进球，与英冠最好的三支球队——莱斯特、南安普顿和利兹相比，他们确实缺乏一些个人技术。然而，考文垂在这方面肯定可以提高!他们应该有足够的火力来打破客队的防线——可能至少两次!考文垂的防守很稳固，他们在联赛中只丢了28个球。比伊普斯维奇(第二名)少5球，比南安普顿(第三名)少3球。如果东道主以超过一球的优势取胜，我一点也不会感到惊讶。在发布这篇预告时，在-1.5个进球障碍的情况下，赔率约为2.55，但建议的赌注是考文垂以1.60左右的赔率获胜。我预计赔率会在开球前下降，因为聪明的钱预计会堆积在东道主身上!连续第九次获胜的几率是71%!

考文垂将在本周末迎来基钦的回归，这名后卫在上周球队3:1战胜米德尔斯堡的比赛中被禁赛。考文垂没有在与米德尔斯堡的比赛中出现任何健康问题，但预计首发阵容会有一些变化，一些上场时间较少的年轻球员将有机会在这里发挥，比如法比奥·塔瓦雷斯、凯尔·麦克法兹安和杰米·艾伦。马修·戈登和杰伊·达西尔瓦也将在周六首发。然而，博彩公司似乎在这里过分强调了球队的配给因素。考文垂有一支很有实力的球队——对于一支冠军球队来说——我是说。至于客队，主教练白金汉可以说出12月2日对阵格里姆斯比的11人首发阵容。值得关注的牛津球员是马克·哈里斯和卡梅伦·布拉纳根，他们本赛季都为客队打进7球，这两人有望在这场比赛中进入首发11人名单。鲁本·罗德里格斯在29场比赛中打进6球，他也将进入英甲首发11人名单。然而，在我看来，这三个球员都有点被高估了。牛津大学以46分排名英甲第五。然而，他们本赛季运气很好。事实上，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有39.98!上个赛季，他们表现不佳，仅排在第19位。我想强调的是，他们的许多球员本赛季都表现得非常出色!他们已经——并且再一次——在博彩市场上得到了太多的尊重。让我们记住，英冠和英甲之间的差别是巨大的。如果这场比赛在卡萨姆球场进行，牛津可能会有一个不错的机会，但是在客场，我相信他们会太被动，他们的防守压力会变得太大，最迟在下半场。考文垂是一支非常健康的球队，他们一定会继续努力，直到终场哨响!如果结果是平局，比赛将重打，我希望这能给考文垂额外的动力去争取胜利——即使有一些风险。一场额外的比赛肯定不是他们想要的，因为他们想要最大限度地实现重返顶级联赛的梦想!老实说，他们被提升会是一个惊喜。

考文垂在主场表现强劲，但输掉了比赛

这是他们在忠实球迷面前的最后11场比赛之一。牛津大学在最近的六场客场比赛中赢了两场。此外，考文垂最近七场比赛没有输过一场，最近在球场上看起来很自信。他们在上一场比赛中非常强大，在客场3-1击败了米德尔斯堡，根据博彩公司的说法，他们显然处于劣势。他们有55%的控球率，也有更多的进攻和危险的进攻。此外，他们还产生了2.34个预期目标(xG)。东道主只拿到了1.24分。在此之前，他们很不幸没能在主场击败斯旺西。虽然平局为2比2，但考文垂的进球次数、角球次数和危险进攻次数都更多。xG值为2.67 ~ 1.09。12月26日，他们在主场2-0击败了谢菲尔德星期三，但客队也有进球的机会。无可否认，最后的比分无疑让考文垂锦上添花。另一方面，牛津队在上一场比赛中客场2-1击败了查尔顿队，但这场比赛很容易就会出现两种结果。两队都有8次进球尝试，主队有更多的角球(9比3)、进攻和危险进攻。牛津大学在xG的产出略高，准确地说是1.03-1,01。在此之前，牛津很糟糕，输给了德比，这是一支比他们的积分还要糟糕的球队，主场2-3。德比的控球率高达67.44%，进球次数和进攻次数也更多——153比53。牛津只有可怜的16次危险进攻——德比的数字是71次!最后我想说的是，根据德国著名的网站Transfermarkt.com，考文垂在这里的队伍要大得多!事实上，他们的球员估计市值约为5100万欧元。然而，在我的专家看来，这仍然太低了。至少有三名球员被低估了。我会说6200万到6300万是更现实的数字。牛津队的身价仅为1100万英镑。这个数字多少是正确的。让我们也记住，东道主也有一个更好的经理-无论是在战术技巧和领导能力!周六的彩票不会再被抽中了。

祝我所有的粉丝好运!

01月06日考文垂 VS 牛津联比赛分析直播