Lecce VS Cagliari

Lecce host Cagliari for this Italian Serie A round 19 battle at Stadio Via del Mare very early Sunday morning Beijing time. This league is the fourth-best in the world. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of lower than average level by this competition's standards. Lecce started the season surprisingly well but have been in steep decline for a long time. Indeed, they have won just one of their last 14 games! What a horrible record that is. They are clearly low in confidence at the moment. Furthermore, according to my sources their team spirit is also far from great – this is hardly a big surprise. I also do not really trust their coach – neither in terms of tactics – nor as a leader. Lecce currently occupy the 13th place in standings. They have a decent 20 points to their account but this is misleading! Indeed, their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 14.12! They have netted the ball 19 times in Serie A and their number of expected goals (xG) is 18.24. Their defence, on the other hand, is very shaky. They have conceded " only" 24 goals but their number of expected goals (xGA) is 36.48! What an amazing difference! For reference I want to mention that the rock-bottom team, Salernitana, have allowed 36 goals. The Lecce defence is poorly organized, silly individual mistakes have become more or more common, the defenders lack individual skill. The midfielders are also often too lazy at defending. In their most recent game they did not play badly but still lost to Atalanta 0-1 away from home. Atalanta played clearly below their normal level but still recorded many more goal attempts, shots on goal corner kicks, attacks as well as dangerous attacks. Before this Inter dominated the events in Milan and beat Lecce 2-0 after 68% ball possession and generating 3.02 in xG. Lecce's fans – who are not among the best in Serie A have – totally understandably – been very frustrated with their team recently but the home advantage is there. It is, however, not very significant. I believe the players feel enormous pressure here as they "should" beat Cagliari who were promoted (back) to this level for this season. However, in terms of players' estimated total market value (Transfermarkt.com) Lecce are only a little bigger team here. I would not be too surprised if Lecce were to find themselves in a fierce battle against relegation in the spring. 

Despite all the negative things I have written about Lecce at home they deserve to be the favourites here – but only very narrow! The biggest bookies who accept the biggest bets from customers offer them odds of only around 2.15 to send the visitors home empty-handed and this is way too low.. Cagliari +0.5 goals handicap is the obvious choice for a professional bettor here! Indeed, I want to mention that Cagliari are not, after all, a great team on the road but their number of xPTS – 21.11 is much higher than that of the hosts. This must be given enough emphasis when calculating the probabilities in this match.  Cagliari are only in 18th place in the league table but have some potential for improvement.. They have scored 16 goals in the Serie a but their number of xG is much higher – 24.12. Their offense does lack individual skill and creativity for this level but the Lecce defence is so bad that the visitors could perhaps score even more than two goals here! The visitors' defence is, in all honesty, not great either.. They have conceded 31 goals and their number of xGA is 28.66. At least they fight very hard and have a very good team spirit! They proved this for example on the 11th of last month when they came back from 0-1 in the extra time to win 2-1. Indeed, Lapadula (90+4) and Pavolotti (90+9 minute) made the fans go crazy! It was a home game against a dangerous team, Sassuolo. The visitors have not won many games recently but will surely fancy their chances here against the "chaotic" Lecce! In their last game Cagliari were beaten by AC Milan away from home in a Coppa Italia (Italian Cup) clash as very clear underdogs on the betting market but the 4-1 is misleading. Cagliari had eight goal attempts - Milan recorded 14. Moreover, the hosts generated "only" 1.45 in xG - Cagliari managed 0.78. Before this the visitors would have deserved to win at home against Empoli after recording 15 goal attempts – Empoli had only five but no goals were scored. Cagliari generated 2.34 in xG – Empoli managed only 0.37!

莱切VS卡利亚里

北京时间周日凌晨，莱切主场迎战卡利亚里，进行意甲第19轮比赛。这个联赛是世界上第四好的联赛。足球迷和我们这些严重的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场低于比赛平均水平的比赛。莱切本赛季出奇的好，但在很长一段时间里一直在急剧下降。事实上，他们在过去的14场比赛中只赢了一场!多么糟糕的记录啊。他们目前显然信心不足。此外，根据我的消息来源，他们的团队精神也远非伟大-这几乎是一个大惊喜。我也不相信他们的教练——无论是战术上还是领导上。莱切目前在积分榜上排名第13。他们的账户上有体面的20分，但这是误导!实际上，他们的期望值(xPTS)只有14.12!他们在意甲联赛中取得了19次进球，他们的期望进球数(xG)是18.24个。另一方面，他们的防守非常不稳固。他们“只”丢了24球，但他们的预期进球数(xGA)是36.48!多么惊人的差异啊!作为参考，我想提一下垫底的萨勒尼塔纳队，他们丢了36个球。莱切的防守组织得很差，愚蠢的个人失误变得越来越普遍，后卫缺乏个人技术。中场球员在防守方面也常常太懒。在最近的一场比赛中，他们踢得不错，但仍然在客场0-1输给亚特兰大。亚特兰大的表现明显低于他们的正常水平，但仍然有更多的进球尝试、角球射门、进攻和危险进攻。在此之前，国米在米兰的比赛中占据了主导地位，在控球率为68%的情况下，国米以2-0击败了莱切，全场得分为3.02。莱切的球迷——他们不是意甲最好的球迷——完全可以理解——最近对他们的球队感到非常沮丧，但主场优势是存在的。然而，这并不是很重要。我相信球员们在这里感受到巨大的压力，因为他们“应该”击败本赛季升入这个级别的卡利亚里。然而，根据球员的估计总市场价值(Transfermarkt.com)，莱切在这里只是稍微大一点。如果莱切在春季发现自己陷入一场激烈的保级战，我不会太惊讶。

尽管我在主场写了很多关于莱切的负面文章，但他们在这里应该是最受欢迎的球队——但只是微弱的差距!接受客户最大赌注的最大博彩公司提供的赔率只有2.15左右，让游客空手而归，这太低了……卡利亚里+0.5个进球障碍是一个职业投注者的明显选择!事实上，我想说卡利亚里毕竟不是一支伟大的客场球队，但他们的xPTS数(21.11)远高于东道主。在计算这场比赛的概率时，这一点必须给予足够的重视。卡利亚里目前只排在联赛的第18位，但是还有提升的潜力。他们在意甲打进了16球，但是他们的进球数要高得多——24.12个。他们的进攻确实缺乏个人技术和创造力，但莱切的防守太糟糕了，客队可能在这里进两个以上的球!老实说，客队的防守也不怎么样。他们丢了31个球，射门次数为28.66个。至少他们很努力，有很好的团队精神!他们在上个月11日的加时赛中就证明了这一点，他们从0-1逆转到2-1。的确，拉帕杜拉(90+4)和帕瓦洛蒂(90+9分钟)让球迷们疯狂!这是一场主场比赛，对手是一支危险的球队，萨索洛。客队最近没有赢得多少比赛，但他们肯定会幻想他们在这里对阵“混乱”的莱切的机会!在他们的上一场比赛中，卡利亚里在意大利杯的比赛中被AC米兰击败，在博彩市场上，他们显然处于劣势，但4比1的比分是误导性的。卡利亚里有8次射门，而米兰有14次。此外，东道主在比赛中“仅”产生了1.45个进球，卡利亚里则产生了0.78个进球。在此之前，客队本可以在主场战胜恩波利，他们有15次进球尝试——恩波利只有5次，但没有进球。卡利亚里在上个赛季进了2.34球，恩波利只进了0.37球!