In my opinion Genoa have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

I believe Genoa coming for this game without any fear. They didn’t lost in 7 of last 8 matches against Bologna and went unbeaten in last 4 games at this stadium.

Obviously, Bologna record at home looks superb – 7 wins in 9 home league matches, but that really shouldn’t look like that. They made 22 points front of home crowd so far, but according to the expected goals scored/conceded models they should make only 14.5 (only 10th position in home league table instead of 3rd..). It’s huge difference, no doubt about that.

Genoa form looking very good at the moment. They went unbeaten in last 3 matches (5 points in the process) and that wasn’t the easiest schedule. Draw 1:1 at home against 2nd Juventus. Deserved win on the road against Sassuolo (higher expected goals scored number than opponents). Draw 1:1 at home against leader of the table Inter. For sure confidence is on the very high level and Genoa wants to go with momentum. Genoa scored in each of last 3 matches and they should be able to do it also today.

Bologna conceded only 4 goals in 9 home matches so far, but it’s extremely undeserved outcome. According to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 9.21. Hosts coming for this game in bad mood. In last round they recorded painful 0:3 loss on the road against Udinese (just 3 points above relegation zone). Defensive formation produced some silly errors and this is great opportunity for Genoa to continue good streak.

Genoa coming for this game with the strongest possible line up. On the other hand Bologna have huge squad problem. Their best player in current season (according to the ratings) Lewis Ferguson is unavailable as he is suspended. It’s huge blow because he is also second-best scorer and best assistant. That should have really bad impact on hosts performance today.

Odds on Bologna raised up by 0.20 from opening lines on big Asian markets with the highest possible limits and I fully agree with this trend. I expect even bigger drops prior to the kick off. Odds on Bologna are too low, value is on away side here.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

在我看来，热那亚在这场比赛中避免输球的机会比博彩公司给我们的赔率要大。

我相信热那亚会毫无畏惧地参加这场比赛。他们在过去8场对博洛尼亚的比赛中7场未输，并且在这个球场的最近4场比赛中保持不败。

显然，博洛尼亚在主场的战绩看起来很好——9场主场7胜，但这真的不应该看起来像那样。到目前为止，他们在主场得到了22分，但根据预期进球数/失球数模型，他们应该只得到14.5分(在主场联赛中只排在第10位，而不是第3位……)这是一个巨大的差异，毫无疑问。

热那亚的状态现在看起来很好。他们在最近3场比赛中保持不败(积5分)，这并不是最轻松的赛程。主场1:1战平第二名尤文图斯。当之无愧的客场战胜萨索洛(期望进球数比对手高)。主场1:1战平榜首国米。毫无疑问，我们的信心是非常高的，热那亚想要带着势头前进。热那亚在过去的3场比赛中都取得了进球，今天他们应该也能做到。

博洛尼亚到目前为止在9场主场比赛中只丢了4球，但这是一个非常不应该的结果。根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢9.21球。主持人来看比赛心情不好。上一轮，他们在客场0比3惨败于乌迪内斯(仅比降级区高出3分)。防守阵型犯了一些愚蠢的错误，这是热那亚延续良好势头的好机会。

热那亚带着最强的阵容来参加这场比赛。另一方面，博洛尼亚有很大的阵容问题。他们本赛季最好的球员(根据收视率)路易斯·弗格森因为停赛而无法上场。这是一个巨大的打击，因为他也是第二好的得分手和最佳助理。这会对主机今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

博洛尼亚的赔率从亚洲大市场的开盘线上升了0.20，我完全同意这一趋势。我预计在开球前会有更大的下降。博洛尼亚的赔率太低了，价值在客场。

01月06日博洛尼亚 VS 热那亚比赛分析直播