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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A GREAT match to bet on! ¥¥¥ 英甲 切尔滕VS雷丁

2023-12-29

比赛分析

英甲

已完赛

星期六2023-12-30 03:45

解读理由

Cheltenham Town VS Reading


Cheltenham host Reading for this English League One round 25 battle at Whaddon Road early Saturday morning Beijing time . This is definitely the best third-tier in the world. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match slightly lower than average level by this league's standards. Reading currently occupy the 21st place in the standings in this league with a total of 24 clubs.. There is no denying the fact that their season has been a somewhat big disappointment – especially results-wise.. They have a total of 19 points to their account. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is 26.61. I want to highlight that they can improve in all areas of the game – possibly even significantly as the season progresses. Offensively they have been pretty strong this season. Indeed, they have netted the ball a respectable 29 times in this league this season. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 32.45.. They have scored more goals than for example Lincoln, currently in 9th place with 32 points in their pocket. However, their defence has not been solid enough and they have conceded 37 goals. Their defensive structure has not been good enough and their defenders have made too many mistakes in many games. Individually their defenders and most midfielders are, however, very skilled for this level. Their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 30.03. In their last game they played well - taking a point from Peterborough away from home as huge underdogs on the betting market. Peterborough are a strong team and are in second place in the league table. It was a 2-2 draw but the hosts did generate more in xG though. Before this they took a fine 2-0 home win over Wigan. They have lost just one of their last six games and have not suffered a defeat in any of their last six matches. They were relegated from the Championship for this season and will surely topple many teams during the remainder of the season!

According to a well-known and respected German website, Transfermarkt.com, the hosts' players have an estimated total market value of only around 5 million euros. The Reading squad, on the other hand, are valued at only around 18 million. This is a big number by League One standards! These numbers are more or less fair in my expert opinion. Cheltenham finished in 16th place last season and are having yet another difficult season. Indeed, they are in the 22nd place and are at great risk of being relegated to the League Two at the end of the season. They have 19 points to their account and have not really been that lucky or unlucky in terms of xPTS. Their offense is very lame and their strikers and other offensive players lack creativity, speed and especially individual skill. They have scored just 15 goals – the second-lowest number in this league. Their defence is not horrible but not solid either. They have allowed 30 goals. In their last game they beat Shrewsbury 2-0 but the match was relatively balanced as a whole. The visitors had 51% ball possession and recorded many more dangerous attacks – 59-52 to be precise. The hosts did record two more goal attempts though. Before this they were disappointing and lost to Leyton Orient 1-2 at home. The visitors had 71% ball possession and recorded more goal attempts, shots on goal, corner kicks, attacks (104-66) as well as dangerous attacks. With the expected lineups Reading are the much stronger team and deserve to be solid favourites here – with a 55% chance of winning. Odds of about 2.55 on the away win are widely available with the biggest bookies. We will take the +0.5 goals handicap option on Reading here!



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切尔滕纳姆VS雷丁


北京时间周六凌晨,英超联赛第25轮,切尔滕纳姆主场迎战雷丁。这绝对是世界上最好的三线球场。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比联赛平均水平略低的比赛。雷丁目前在这个联赛中排名第21位,总共有24家俱乐部。不可否认的事实是,他们的赛季有些令人失望,尤其是在结果方面。他们的账户上总共有19分。然而,他们的期望值(xPTS)是26.61。我想强调的是,他们可以在比赛的各个方面都有所提高——甚至可能随着赛季的进展而显著提高。他们本赛季的进攻相当强大。事实上,他们本赛季在联赛中有29次进球。他们的预期进球数(xG)是32.45…他们的进球数比林肯还多,林肯目前以32分排名第九。然而,他们的防守还不够稳固,他们已经丢了37个球。他们的防守结构还不够好,他们的后卫在很多比赛中犯了太多的错误。然而,他们的后卫和大多数中场球员在这个水平上都非常熟练。他们的预期进球数(xGA)是30.03。在上一场比赛中,他们打得很好,在客场从彼得伯勒拿了一分,尽管他们在博彩市场上处于劣势。彼得伯勒是一支强队,目前在联赛积分榜上排名第二。双方以2比2战平,但东道主在比赛中创造了更多机会。在此之前,他们主场2:0完胜维冈。他们在过去的六场比赛中只输了一场,而且在最近的六场比赛中没有输过一场。他们从本赛季的冠军降级,肯定会推翻许多球队在本赛季的剩余时间!

根据德国知名网站Transfermarkt.com的数据,东道主球员的总市值估计只有500万欧元左右。另一方面,雷丁队的价值只有1800万英镑左右。按照英甲联赛的标准,这是一个很大的数字!在我看来,这些数字或多或少是公平的。上赛季切尔滕纳姆排在第16位,这又是一个艰难的赛季。事实上,他们现在排在第22位,很有可能在本赛季结束后被降级到英乙。他们的账户上有19分,在xPTS方面并没有那么幸运或不幸。他们的进攻很差劲,他们的前锋和其他进攻球员缺乏创造力,速度,尤其是个人技术。他们只进了15球,在联赛中排名倒数第二。他们的防守并不可怕,但也不坚固。他们丢了30个球。在上一场比赛中,他们以2比0击败了什鲁斯伯里,但比赛总体上还是比较平衡的。客队有51%的控球率,并且记录了更多的危险进攻——准确地说是59比52。不过主队又有两次进球尝试。在此之前,他们的表现令人失望,在主场1-2不敌莱顿东方。客队的控球率为71%,进球次数、射门次数、角球次数、进攻次数(104比66)以及危险进攻次数都更多。在预期的阵容中,雷丁是一支更强的球队,应该是最受欢迎的球队——有55%的获胜机会。客场获胜的赔率约为2.55,在最大的博彩公司中广泛存在。我们将采取+0.5进球障碍选项雷丁在这里!

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