Extremely interesting match with both teams in huge need for points. No one is questioning the set-up here or who is the better team, it is simply a question of handicap, and Atletico have not always been the most trustable to beat higher handicaps.

In December in Madrid Atletico won 3-1, which reflects the performances and goal expectations well.

How about today?

The recent form of Elche - the team who are the bottom in all other metrics than the actual points - is not very convincing. There is one sole win, and it is against the poor Levante side who have been the weakest in the league since last international break. Three of last 7 games have been lost by this handicap, in the whole season they have lost by at least two goals 10 times so far.

The Elche coach Escribe says that Elche have done well against the big teams.. well, against the top-5 the saldo is 1-1-8, the win over rotating Sevilla side who were in-between CL games v Dortmund.

The only absentee at Elche is defender Mojica.

Atletico did lose their 10 point lead in la Liga, but everything is again in their hands, and they also have an optimal lineup again to choose from, which has not been the case recently.

The results recently are mixed, but they can build on the fact these lower class teams have not scored, nor created goal expectation vs Simeone's side.

We have league's weakest attack hosting the defense which should be the strongest. Personally I think that for all of the teams in the picture above are stronger than Elche, even Eibar who managed 0.00 of goal expectation in a similar desperate need of points.

0-2 seems like the most likely outcome here.

本译文使用有道机器翻译，进攻参考：

非常有趣的比赛，两队都非常需要积分。没有人会质疑这里的阵容，也没有人会质疑谁是更好的球队，这只是一个让球的问题，而马竞在高让球的时候并不总是最值得信赖的球队。

去年12月在马德里，马竞以3-1获胜，这很好地反映了他们的表现和进球预期。今天怎么样?

埃尔切最近的表现——除了实际得分，所有其他指标都垫底的团队——并不是很令人信服。只有一场胜利，那是对阵可怜的莱万特队，他们是上赛季国际比赛以来联赛中最弱的。在过去的7场比赛中有3场是在这种不利条件下输掉的，在整个赛季中他们已经10次至少输掉2球。埃尔切的教练说埃尔切在与强队的比赛中表现很好。在对阵前五名的比赛中，萨尔多队以1-1-8的比分战胜了塞维利亚轮换队，后者在冠军杯对阵多特蒙德的比赛中处于中间位置。

埃尔切唯一缺席的是后卫莫希卡。

马竞在西甲确实失去了10分的领先优势，但一切都在他们的掌握之中，他们也再次拥有了最佳阵容，而这并非最近的情况。

最近的结果好坏参半，但他们可以建立在这些低级别球队没有进球的事实上，也没有对西蒙尼的球队创造进球预期。

我个人认为，上图中所有的球队都比埃尔切强，甚至是艾巴，他的目标期望是0，但却同样迫切地需要积分。

预测比分0:2。