In my opinion Monza have all required tools to make at least one point in today’s match up.

Monza coming for this game without any fear. In previous season they made 4 points in two league matches against Fiorentina. At home Monza won 3:2, why not today?

Home ground should really make big difference in this game. Monza is very solid and consistent team front of home crowd. In previous season they went unbeaten in 12 of 19 Serie A matches at home. In current season they recorded only one loss in 8 matches and conceded only 5 goals in the process. Monza lost at home against strong Juventus (2nd place in league table), but that was very unfortunate outcome as Juventus scored 90+4. On the other hand Fiorentina is not top class team on the road. In previous season they failed to win in 13 of 19 Serie A games on away. In current season they failed to win in 5 of 8 away league matches. One of those 3 wins was extremely undeserved. Fiorentina won on away against Udinese, but really shouldn’t: expected goals scored for Udinese 2.24, for Fiorentina 0.52.

Monza have all key players available for this game so I expect from them another high quality performance front of home crowd. Fiorentina coming for this game without one of the best player in team Gonzalez. It’s big absence because he is Fiorentina best scorer in current season of Serie A.

According to the expected goals scored model Fiorentina (19.2 goals) is little bit better than Monza (18.0) in attack, but without Gonzalez it’s questionable. On the other hand according to the expected goals conceded model Monza (21.9) is little bit better than Fiorentina at the back (22.2).

I really don’t agree with market here. Value is on home side. They shouldn’t be underdog of this game.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

在我看来，蒙扎车队拥有在今天的比赛中至少得一分所需的所有工具。

蒙扎毫无畏惧地来参加这场比赛。在上个赛季，他们在与佛罗伦萨的两场联赛中得到4分。在主场蒙扎以3:2获胜，为什么不是今天呢?

主场应该会在这场比赛中起很大作用。蒙扎在主场的观众面前非常稳定和稳定。在上个赛季，他们在19场主场比赛中有12场保持不败。本赛季，他们在8场比赛中只输了一场，只丢了5个球。蒙扎在主场输给了强大的尤文图斯(联赛排名第二)，但这是一个非常不幸的结果，因为尤文图斯得到了90+4。另一方面，佛罗伦萨在客场也不是顶级球队。在上个赛季，他们在19场客场比赛中有13场未能获胜。本赛季，他们在8场客场比赛中有5场没有获胜。这三场胜利中有一场是极不应得的。佛罗伦萨在客场赢了乌迪内斯，但实际上不应该:乌迪内斯的预期进球数为2.24，佛罗伦萨为0.52。

蒙扎有所有的关键球员可以参加这场比赛，所以我期待他们在主场观众面前又一次高质量的表现。佛罗伦萨在这场比赛中没有最好的球员之一冈萨雷斯。这是一个很大的缺阵，因为他是佛罗伦萨本赛季意甲最佳射手。

根据预期进球数模型，佛罗伦萨(19.2球)在进攻端略好于蒙扎(18.0球)，但没有冈萨雷斯的情况令人怀疑。另一方面，根据预期失球数，蒙扎(21.9)在后防线上略好于佛罗伦萨(22.2)。

我真的不同意市场的观点。价值在主场。他们不应该在这场比赛中处于劣势。

12月23日蒙扎 VS 佛罗伦萨比赛分析直播