I waited with this bet until last moment because I wanted to see the most possible line ups for today's match up.

Adelaide coming for this game without any new important absences so their line up should look exactly the same like in previous round. On the other hand Western have problems with defensive formation. Today they are without right defender Risdon and left defender Markovic. Both of them played in last round. Guests manager Rudan said about Risdon ''We all know just how important he is to our football club and our team. Finally gets himself back in there and an innocuous challenge by his good friend Stammo puts him out now for at least a month, maybe longer." Markovic have ankle problems after last game and according to Rudan that doesn't look good. In addition to that important central midfielder Duzel is not fit enough to start in first squad. That should have bad impact on Western performance today, especially in defense.

Western played last 3 matches at home, but now hard schedule front of them as they will play 4 matches in a row on away. They had as well one day less for recovery than Adelaide after last round game.

Home ground really should make difference here. Adelaide is strong at home - 6 wins in 8 home matches: expected goals scored 13.72, expected goals conceded 7.06. On the other hand Western is poor on away - 5 losses in 7 matches: expected goals scored 8.80, expected goals conceded 14.04.

In these circumstances I see good value on home side.

我一直等到最后一刻，因为我想看到今天比赛的最可能的阵容。

阿德莱德在这场比赛中没有任何重要的缺阵，所以他们的阵容应该和上一轮一样。另一方面，西部联有防守阵型的问题。今天他们失去了右后卫里斯顿和左后卫马尔科维奇。他们都参加了最后一轮比赛。客队经理鲁丹谈到里斯顿时说:“我们都知道他对我们的足球俱乐部和球队有多重要。他至少要缺席一个月，也许更久。”马科维奇在上一场比赛后脚踝出现了问题，根据鲁丹的说法情况不太好。除了重要的中场，杜泽尔的身体状况还不足以让他首发。这应该会对西部联今天的表现产生不好的影响，尤其是在防守方面。

西部联在主场打了最后三场比赛，但现在他们面临艰难的赛程，因为他们将在客场连续打4场比赛。在上一轮比赛后，他们的恢复时间也比阿德莱德少了一天。

阿德莱德的情况确实应该有所不同。阿德莱德在主场表现强劲——8场主场6胜:预期进球13.72，预期失球7.06。另一方面，西部球队在客场表现不佳——7场比赛输了5场:预期进球8.80，预期失球14.04。

在这种情况下，我认为阿德莱德很有价值。