In my opinion Alaves have really good chances to avoid big loss in this game. +1.5 AH on home side looks like very safe option to play.

Alaves have all key players available for this game. On the other hand Real Madrid have serious squad problems because list of absences is really long. Guests coming for this match without 7 important players: first goalkeeper Courtois, defenders Alaba, Militao, Mendy, Carvajal, midfielder Camavinga and winger Vinicius. It’s big blow and should have very bad impact on their performance today.

I believe -1.5 line is really high to cover, even for Real Madrid. Since end of August they played 10 away matches in all competitions and only two times they won with more than one goal difference. That should be hard to do today. In last 12 matches in all competitions Alaves lost with more than one goal difference only one time. In last round against Girona (leader of the table) on the road (0:3), but they not fully deserved for such big loss: expected goals scored for Girona 1.77 (one goal from penalty), expected goals scored for Alaves 0.66 (finished with more shots than Girona).

Obviously, Real Madrid have big firepower, but according to the expected goals scored model they overperforming little bit in current season. Real scored 38 goals, but according to that model they should score 31.8.

Alaves is typical home team and loves to play front of home crowd. In current season they went unbeaten in 5 of 8 home league matches. Alaves for sure coming with very defensive mindset and they should be hard nut to crack. According to the expected goals conceded model their defensive formation is top5 in La Liga. Alaves also should have some chances to score. They already scored 10 goals in 8 home league matches. Real kept only one clean sheet in last 5 matches in all competitions, against poor Granada at home. Today defensive formation is depleted and that should create some opportunities for Alaves.

All in all, I expect much harder game for Real Madrid than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

在我看来，阿拉维斯在这场比赛中有很好的机会避免大的损失。主队+1.5 AH看起来是非常安全的选择。

阿拉维斯所有的关键球员都可以参加这场比赛。另一方面，皇马有严重的阵容问题，因为缺阵名单真的很长。7名重要球员缺席的嘉宾:第一门将库尔图瓦、后卫阿拉巴、米利陶、门迪、卡瓦哈尔、中场卡马文加和边锋维尼修斯。这是一个巨大的打击，应该会对他们今天的表现产生非常糟糕的影响。

我相信-1.5线是非常高的覆盖，即使是皇马。自8月底以来，他们在各项赛事中打了10场客场比赛，只有两场胜率超过1个净胜球。这在今天应该很难做到。在最近的12场比赛中，阿拉维斯只输了1个净胜球以上的比赛。在上一轮客场对阵赫罗纳(积分榜第一)(0:3)的比赛中，他们的预期进球数赫罗纳为1.77(点球进球)，阿拉维斯的预期进球数为0.66(射门次数比赫罗纳多)。

显然，皇马有强大的火力，但根据预期进球模型，他们在本赛季表现得有点过头了。皇马打进38球，但根据这个模型，他们应该打进31.8球。

阿拉维斯是典型的主场球队，喜欢在主场观众面前比赛。本赛季他们在8场主场比赛中有5场保持不败。阿拉维斯肯定有很强的防守心态，他们应该是很难对付的。根据预期失球模型，他们的防守阵型在西甲排名前五。阿拉维斯也应该有进球的机会。他们已经在8场主场联赛中打入10球。皇马在最近的5场比赛中只有1场零封对手，是在主场对阵格拉纳达。今天的防守阵型已经耗尽，这应该会给阿拉维斯创造一些机会。

总而言之，我希望皇马的比赛比博彩公司给我们的赔率要困难得多。

12月22日阿拉维斯 VS 皇马比赛分析直播