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芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A GREAT match to bet on! ¥¥¥ 德甲 不来梅VS莱红牛

2023-12-20

比赛分析

德甲

已完赛

星期三2023-12-20 01:30

解读理由

Werder Bremen VS RB Leipzig


Werder Bremen welcome RB Leipzig for this German Bundesliga round 16 clash at Weserstadion Wednesday morning Beijing time. This league is the third-best in the workd. Football enthusiasts and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of pretty average level by the Bundesliga standards. Leipzig are having a relatively strong season so far. Indeed, the visitors currently occupy the third place in the league table. They have grabbed a total of 32 points. However, their number of expected points (xPTS) is"only" 27.56. They have netted the ball a respectable 37 times in this league so far. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is clearly lower – 32.56 to be precise. In this area of the game they have a pretty edge over the hosts. Indeed, Werder Bremen have scored only 22 goals so far. Their number of xPTS is, in fact, only a bit higher.

In terms of defensive quality the difference between the teams is smaller than in terms of offensive firepower. Indeed, the Leipzig defence has been a slight disappointment to me this season.. Their defenders have made too many silly defensive mistakes – especially in away games. They have conceded only 16 goals but their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is 19.98. The hosts have allowed 29 goals and their defence does have many weaknesses. At home they have defended, and played much better overall, than on the road. Their number of xGA is 25.67. The hosts have been pretty good in their last two games. Indeed, in their last game they faced Mönchegladbach away from home as clear underdogs according to the bookies but too a draw through a 2-2 draw. They generated much more than hosts in xG – 2.32-1.23 to be precise. Before this team beat Augsburg 2-0 after a fine defsive performance. The visitors have won four games in a row and are of course solid favourites here but their odds are way too low. The hosts +1.5 is the obvious choice here!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

云达不莱梅VS莱比锡RB


北京时间周三上午,云达不莱梅将在威西体育场迎来德国联赛第16轮对阵莱比锡。这个联赛是世界上第三好的。足球爱好者和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场按照德甲标准相当平均水平的比赛。到目前为止,莱比锡有一个相对强劲的赛季。事实上,客队目前在积分榜上排名第三。他们总共得到了32分。然而,他们的期望值(xPTS)“只有”27.56。到目前为止,他们在这个联赛中已经有37次进球了。然而,他们的预期进球数(xG)明显较低,准确地说是32.56。在比赛的这个方面,他们比东道主有很大的优势。事实上,云达不莱梅目前只进了22个球。实际上,它们的xpt数量只稍微高一些。

在防守质量方面,两队之间的差距小于进攻火力方面。事实上,这个赛季莱比锡的防守让我有点失望。他们的后卫犯了太多愚蠢的防守错误——尤其是在客场比赛中。他们只丢了16个球,但他们的预期失球数(xGA)是19.98个。东道主已经丢了29个球,他们的防守确实有很多弱点。他们在主场的防守和整体表现都比客场好得多。它们的xGA数是25.67。东道主在最近两场比赛中表现相当出色。事实上,在他们的上一场比赛中,他们在客场面对Mönchegladbach,根据博彩公司的数据,他们显然处于劣势,但也在2-2的平局中打平。它们产生的宿主比xG(2.32-1.23)中的宿主多得多。在此之前,这支球队凭借出色的防守表现以2-0击败了奥格斯堡。客队已经连续赢得四场比赛,当然是最受欢迎的球队,但他们的赔率太低了。主机+1.5是这里明显的选择!

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