In my opinion Forest Green have really good chances to avoid big loss in this game. +1.5 AH on away side looks like solid option to play.

I watched Blackpool at the weekend. They lost 1:2 on away against Cambridge and that wasn’t convincing performance at all: 0.96 expected goals scored for Blackpool, 2.56 for Cambridge. According to the expected goals scored model Blackpool should score 33.5 goals in 22 rounds of League One. Looks solid, but today they are without two important offensive players: Kouassi (one goal) and second-best scorer Lavery (4 goals). That should have bad impact on their performance today.

I believe Forest Green is underrated because of their numbers in League Two, but if You look deeper – guests plays better than their results shows. They scored 20 goals in 20 rounds, but according to the expected goals scored number they should scored 25.8. Forest Green conceded 37 goals, but according to the expected goals conceded model they should concede 27.9. It’s big difference, no doubt about that.

I expect closer game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their lines.

在我看来，森林绿色真的有很好的机会避免大损失在这场比赛。客场+1.5 AH看起来是个不错的选择。

我周末看了《黑池》。他们客场1:2输给了剑桥，这并不是令人信服的表现:布莱克浦预期进球数0.96，剑桥预期进球数2.56。根据预期进球数模型，布莱克浦应该在22轮联赛中打进33.5球。看起来很稳定，但是今天他们缺少了两名重要的进攻球员:库assi(1球)和第二射手Lavery(4球)。这应该会对他们今天的表现产生不良影响。

我相信森林格林被低估了，因为他们在英乙的数据，但如果你看得更深入，客队的表现比他们的结果要好。他们在20轮比赛中进了20球，但按照预期进球数，他们应该进25.8球。森林格林丢了37球，但根据预期丢球模型，他们应该丢27.9球。毫无疑问，差别很大。

我希望比赛比博彩公司给我们的建议更接近。