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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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Strong results in this league!

2023-12-18

比赛分析

西甲

已完赛

星期二2023-12-19 04:00

解读理由

Girona VS Deportivo Alavés


Girona welcome Alaves for this Spanish LaLiga round 17 clash at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi early Tuesday morning Beijing time. This league is the second-best on the planet. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of better than average level by the LaLiga standards. Girona are having a terrific season! Indeed, they currently occupy the second place in the standings with a fine 41 points to their account. They have been perhaps the biggest positive surprises - at least results-wise - in the top-5 European leagues so far this season! Real Madrid have taken 42 points and Barcelona occupy the 3rd place with 35 points. Yes, Girona have exceeded everyone's expectations this season but I need to highlight that they have also been massively lucky in many games. They are not in the top-6 in my power rating.. This rating reflects the teams' pure class with the best possible starting eleven. Their number of expected points (xPTS) is only 26.12! They have netted the ball 38 times in LaLiga. This is the highest number – together with Real Madrid – in this league. In this area of the game they have been top-5 level so far but many of their offensive players have played above their normal level so far. Their number of expected goals (xG) is 32.03. Their defence is good but not great.. They have allowed the same number of goals as Alaves - 20 to be precise. Girona's number of expected goals allowed is 27.04. 

In their last game the hosts beat Barcelona 4-2 away from home. However, it was not a deserved win.. Indeed, Barcelona recorded many more goal attempts (31-15), shots on goal, shots off goal, corner kicks, attacks and dangerous attacks. Moreover, Barcelona generated 3.67 in xG – Girona managed 2.35. This win seems to affect the odds too much here. Alaves were promoted to LaLiga for this season. They have played better than I expected in my in-depth preseason analysis. They currently occupy the 13th place in the league table with 16 points to their account. However, their number of xPTS is 25.98. Their offense is not great - they have netted the ball 14 times but their number of xG is 24.11! However, their offensive players do lack individual skill for this level.. I expect them to be pretty defensive here. They would probably be happy with a draw.. We will take the +1.5 goals handicap option here with an over 70% chance of winning! They have lost just one of their last four games. This defeat came in their last game, at home against Las Palmas, but Alaves recorded 1.93 in xG – the visitors managed only 0.39!



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赫罗纳VS拉科鲁尼亚


北京时间周二凌晨,赫罗纳欢迎阿拉维斯参加西甲第17轮的比赛。这个联盟是世界上第二好的。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场比西甲平均水平更好的比赛。赫罗纳正在经历一个了不起的赛季!事实上,他们目前在积分榜上以41分的成绩排名第二。他们可能是本赛季迄今为止欧洲五大联赛中最大的惊喜——至少在成绩方面是如此!皇马积42分,巴萨积35分排名第三。是的,赫罗纳本赛季超出了所有人的期望,但我需要强调的是,他们在许多比赛中也非常幸运。在我的力量评分中,他们不在前六名之内。这个排名反映了球队的纯粹等级,有最好的首发11人。他们的期望值(xPTS)只有26.12!他们在西甲联赛中打进38球。这是联赛中最高的数字,加上皇马。到目前为止,在这个领域,他们一直是前五名的水平,但他们的许多进攻球员到目前为止都超过了他们的正常水平。他们的预期进球数(xG)是32.03。他们的防守很好,但不是很好。他们丢了和阿拉维斯一样多的球——准确地说是20个。赫罗纳的预期失球数是27.04个。

在上一场比赛中,东道主在客场以4比2击败了巴塞罗那队。然而,这并不是一场应得的胜利。事实上,巴萨的进球次数(31-15次)、射正、射离、角球、进攻和危险进攻都要多得多。此外,巴塞罗那在g赛季打进了3.67球,赫罗纳打进了2.35球。这场胜利似乎对赔率影响太大了。阿拉维斯本赛季升入了西甲联赛。他们的表现比我在季前赛的深入分析中预期的要好。目前他们以16分的积分排名联赛第13位。但是,他们的xPTS数量为25.98。他们的进攻并不好,他们只有14次进球,但他们的xG次数是24.11次!然而,他们的进攻球员确实缺乏这个级别的个人技术。我估计他们会很有戒心。他们可能会对平局感到高兴。我们将采取+1.5球障碍选项,有超过70%的获胜机会!他们最近四场比赛只输了一场。这场失利发生在他们的上一场比赛,主场对阵拉斯帕尔马斯,但阿拉维斯的xG得分为1.93,而客队只有0.39!

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