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外籍分析师
芬兰职业体育分析师,已从业20年
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A FINE match to bet on! 波兰甲 格里维治VS梅莱茨钢铁

2023-12-18

比赛分析

波兰甲

已完赛

星期二2023-12-19 02:00

解读理由

Piast Gliwice VS Stal Mielec


Piast Gliwice host Stal Mielec for this Polish Ekstraklasa round 19 clash at Stadion Miejski w Gliwicach very early Tuesday morning Beijing time. However, in reality both teams have played only 17 games so far. This league is of mediocre level by European standards.. Football fans and us serious, profit-hungry bettors can expect a match of mediocre level by the LaLiga standards. Piast Gliwice are having a somewhat disappointing season. Indeed, they currently occupy the 12th place in the standings. They have netted the ball only 15 times in this league so far this season. This is the second-lowest number in Ekstraklasa! Even Ruch Chrozow, currently in 17th place in this league with a total of 18 clubs have scored 22 goals. The hosts' offense has lacked especially speed and passing accuracy at crucial moments. Their offensive structure has also been far from optimal. However, their number of expected goals (xG) is significantly higher.. Furthermore, they can improve in this area of the game. However, it seems that the bookies give this potential way too much emphasis. I want to highlight that they have not won a single game by a margin of more than one goal in the Ekstraklasa so far. Well, they have won a total of only three games. Their defence, on the other hand, has worked very well and they have allowed only 14 goals in this league. This is the smallest number in the Ekstraklasa! However, their number of expected goals allowed (xGA) is much bigger. We will take the Stal Mielec +1.5 goals handicap option here – with a 67% chance of winning. The fans who want to go for bigger odds can take the +0.5 goals option. Indeed, the current odds of around 1.45 offered by the biggest bookies on the hosts to win are way too low!

In their last game Piast Gliwice took a 1-0 win away from home over Lech Poznan. However, they had some luck on their side. Indeed, the hosts had 64% ball possession and also recorded more goal attempts (19-7), shots on goal, shots off goal (15-4), corner kicks (14-3), total passes, completed passes, attacks and especially dangerous attacks – 110-40. Last season Gliwice took 10 more points than Stal Mielec. The hosts finished on 5th place but Stal Mielec, too, played a pretty strong season – taking into account their rather small financial resources and pretty low players' estimated market value – according to Transfermarkt.com, a reliable source. The teams last locked horns in July, in round 2, and no goals were scored. The bookies should stop underestimating Stal Mielec who play very well as a team – but do not have the "biggest names" in the squad.. They have a fine 22 points to their account and are in the 10th place in the league table. They have scored a fine 25 goals but their defence is, in all honesty, not very solid.. Indeed, they have conceded 26 goals but can improve their defence as the season progresses. Both teams have been in strong form results-wise recently! The hosts last lost a game in September but have not been able to take too many wins over big teams in the recent months.. In the Polish Cup they have beaten small teams but I do not give these wins too much emphasis.. Stal Mielec have lost only one of their last six games – winning 3/6 matches. In their last game Stal Mielec took a point away from home against Cracovia as clear underdogs according to the bookies. It was a 1-1 draw but Cracovia did record more in xG though.


In my expert opinion 1-0 is the most probable final score here.. GOOD LUCK!



该文章通过有道机器翻译,仅供参考:

Piast Gliwice VS Stal Mielec


北京时间周二凌晨,波兰与格利维奇的第19轮比赛将在格利维奇的米耶斯基体育场举行。然而,实际上两队到目前为止只打了17场比赛。按照欧洲的标准,这个联赛处于中等水平。足球迷和我们这些认真的、追求利润的投注者可以期待一场以西甲标准衡量的中等水平的比赛。Piast Gliwice这个赛季有些令人失望。事实上,他们目前在排行榜上排名第12位。本赛季到目前为止,他们在联赛中只有15次进球。这是Ekstraklasa第二低的数字!即使是目前在18支球队中排名第17位的鲁奇·克洛佐夫也打入了22球。主队的进攻尤其缺乏速度和关键时刻的传球准确性。他们的进攻结构也远未达到最佳状态。然而,他们的预期目标数量(xG)要高得多。此外,他们还可以在这方面有所提高。然而,似乎博彩公司给了这个潜在的方式太多的强调。我想强调的是,到目前为止,他们在Ekstraklasa还没有赢过一场超过一球的比赛。嗯,他们总共只赢了三场比赛。另一方面,他们的防守做得很好,他们在联赛中只丢了14个球。这是Ekstraklasa中最小的数字!然而,他们允许的预期目标数量(xGA)要大得多。我们将在这里选择斯塔尔·米莱克+1.5个进球障碍选项-有67%的获胜机会。想要更大赔率的球迷可以选择+0.5个进球的选项。事实上,目前最大的博彩公司为东道主提供的1.45左右的获胜赔率太低了!

在他们的上一场比赛中,皮亚斯特·格列维斯在客场1-0战胜了莱赫·波兹南。然而,他们有一些运气。事实上,东道主拥有64%的控球率,并且进球次数(19-7)、射正、射偏(15-4)、角球次数(14-3)、总传球次数、完成传球次数、进攻次数、尤其是危险进攻次数(110-40)也更多。上赛季格列维斯比斯托尔·米列茨多得10分。据可靠消息来源Transfermarkt.com称,东道主排名第五,但考虑到他们的财政资源相当少,球员的估计市场价值也相当低,斯塔尔·米列茨也表现得相当强劲。两队上一次交锋是在7月的第二轮,双方没有进球。博彩公司应该停止低估米勒奇,他作为一个团队踢得很好,但在球队中没有“大牌”。目前他们的积分为22分,排在联赛第10位。他们进了25个漂亮的球,但老实说,他们的防守不是很稳固。事实上,他们已经丢了26个球,但随着赛季的进展,他们可以改善他们的防守。两支球队最近的成绩都很好!东道主上一次输掉一场比赛是在9月份,但最近几个月在对阵强队的比赛中没能取得太多胜利。在波兰杯上,他们击败了一些小球队,但我不太重视这些胜利。斯托尔-米勒茨基在最近6场比赛中只输了1场,赢了3/6场。在他们的上一场比赛中,根据博彩公司的数据,斯托尔·米莱克在主场对阵克拉科维亚的比赛中拿了一分。虽然平局是1-1,但克拉科维亚在xG取得了更多的进球。


在我的专家看来,1-0是最有可能的最终比分。好运!

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