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芬兰人,有自己投注模型,公开记录的2136场比赛场均盈利率超10%
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Aaron v Messi again!

2021-04-29

比赛分析

西甲

已完赛

星期五2021-04-30 01:00

解读理由

Ok friends, I do not fully like this handicap as all that matters now to Barcelona is the win. The three points that would take them to the top of the league!

They do not even need to improve their goal difference, as they lead by it clearly, and it is not even the first deciding factor.

There are basically three points why I still decide this:

Firstly, the unbelievably good form of Barcelona. They keep on performing on a brilliant level as you see from the latest result. Creating + 3 goals worth of goal expectation is no news, and it is a lot considering that they have players like Messi and Griezmann who easily overperform all scoring expectations. Remember that Messi did not even score last round!

好吧,朋友们,我并不完全喜欢这种指数,因为对巴塞罗那来说,现在最重要的是胜利。这三分能让他们登上联盟榜首!

他们甚至不需要提高他们的净胜球,因为他们明显领先,这甚至不是第一个决定因素。

我仍然决定这么做的主要原因有三点:

首先,巴塞罗那令人难以置信的好状态。从最新的结果可以看出,他们一直表现出色。创造3个进球并不是什么新闻,考虑到他们有梅西和格里兹曼这样的球员,他们的表现轻松超过了所有的进球预期。还记得梅西上一轮连球都没进吗?

Secondly, and this I have discussed several times before, also last round away at Sevilla. Granada are the most overperforming of the midtable teams, and it is close to miracle as they have played a huge number of matches, and they have missed more players than any team. Tonight is no exception, look at the list! The new casualties compared to the Sevilla game are ever-present keeper Rui Silva, one of season's key figures, and suspended midfielders Puertas and Montoro.

第二,这一点我已经讨论过好几次了,也是上一轮在塞维利亚的比赛。格拉纳达是中游表现最出色的球队,这几乎是一个奇迹,因为他们打了大量的比赛,缺席的球员比任何球队都多。今晚也不例外,看看名单吧!与塞维利亚的比赛相比,新的伤兵、员是本赛季的关键人物之一、经常出场的门将鲁伊·席尔瓦,以及停赛的中场球员普尔塔斯和蒙特罗。

It means that Aaron will come to the goal, last time he played a game was a 3-5 home loss to Barcelona in the cup, where he both performed exceptionally well, and also lost the match with an individual error. In the league game Granada lost in January by 0-4, in a match which points out the xG with Barcelona, as both Messi and Griezmann scored twice even if the total of the xG-models was around 1.65!

The bookies make their best not to offer any value in Barcelona win, and indeed if they win this by exactly 2 goals no one is surprised, but this could as easily turn into a 5-0 kind of massacre against this Granada side who in my papers would belong to relegation fight class-wise, and who are bad on the road.

这意味着替补门将阿隆会首发参赛,上一次他踢的比赛是在杯赛上以3-5输给巴塞罗那,在那里他都表现得非常出色,也因为个人失误输掉了比赛。在1月份的联赛比赛中,格拉纳达以0-4的比分输掉了比赛,这场比赛指出了预期数据对巴塞罗那很友好,梅西和格里兹曼预计都进了两球,即使预期进球模型的总数约为1.65!

事实上,如果巴萨以2球的优势赢得这场比赛,没有人会感到惊讶,但这很容易变成对这支格拉纳达球队的一场类似5-0大屠杀,在我的文章中,这支球队属于保级级别的,而且在客场表现很差。

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