In my opinion Gil Vicente have bigger chances to avoid loss in this game than bookies wants to suggest for us in their odds.

I understand why Moreirense is overrated here. After 12 rounds they are on 6th position - 7 places above Gil Vicente with 10 points more on their account, but I really don't agree to make Gil Vicente underdog here.

Since end of October they played 6 matches in all competitions and 4 times avoided losses. During that they lost against two teams from top7 - Famalicao and Sporting (twice on the road). In last round Gil Vicente lost on away against leader of the table, Sporting. Now they coming back to home where they are really hard nut to crack.

In current season Gil Vicente looks excellent front of home crowd. 11 points in 6 home matches (only one loss) and 18 (!!!) goals scored. If You look on the bigger picture, Gil Vicente still looks like solid home team. In last two seasons they went unbeaten in 24 of 34 home league matches.

Moreirense results looks much better than really should. 6 wins in 12 rounds, but they scored only 14 goals. According to the expected goals scored model they should score only 11.4. Market overreacting because Moreirense in last round avoided loss at home against Benfica (0:0), but that wasn't deserved result at all: expected goals scored for Benfica 1.48, for Moreirense 0.46. According to many sources, Benfica coach Schmidt lost locker room. On those circumstances one point against Benfica don't have too big value in my eyes.

Gil Vicente is rock solid at home. In 6 home matches they scored 4 goals more than Moreirense in all 12 matches. Without any shadow of doubt they have weapons to hurt guests and make another positive result front of home crowd.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

在我看来，吉尔·维森特在这场比赛中避免输掉的机会比赌徒给我们的赔率要大。

我明白为什么莫瑞伦斯在这里被高估了。12轮过后，他们排在第6位，比吉尔·维森特高出7位，他们的账户上多了10分，但我真的不同意让吉尔·维森特在这里处于劣势。

自10月底以来，他们在各项赛事中进行了6场比赛，4次避免了失败。在此期间，他们输给了前7名的两支球队——法马利考和里斯本竞技(客场两次)。在上一轮比赛中，吉尔·维森特客场输给了积分榜第一的里斯本竞技。现在他们回到了家里，在那里他们真的很难对付。

本赛季吉尔·维森特在主场球迷面前表现出色。6场主场比赛11分(只输了一场)，进了18个球(!!)如果你从更大的角度来看，吉尔·维森特看起来仍然是稳固的主队。在过去的两个赛季中，他们在34场主场比赛中有24场保持不败。

morerense的结果看起来比实际情况要好得多。12轮6胜，但他们只进了14球。根据预期进球得分模型，他们应该只有11.4分。市场反应过度，因为莫雷伦斯在上一轮避免了主场对阵本菲卡的失利(0:0)，但这根本不应该是一个结果:本菲卡的预期进球数为1.48，莫雷伦斯的预期进球数为0.46。据多方消息，本菲卡主帅施密特在更衣室失踪。在这种情况下，对本菲卡的一分在我看来并没有太大的价值。

吉尔·维森特在家里坚如磐石。在6场主场比赛中，他们在所有12场比赛中都比莫瑞森多进了4个球。毫无疑问，他们有武器来伤害客人，并在主场观众面前取得另一个积极的结果。

12月12日吉维森特 VS 摩雷伦斯比赛分析直播