In my opinion Atletico Madrid is clear favorite of this game and should be able to make comfortable win with at least 2-3 goals difference. -1.5 AH on home side looks like the most logical option to play here.

Atletico won last 3 home matches in a row against Almeria and scored 9 goals in the process. I see continuation of those numbers today.

Atletico currently is on 4th place, but this is perfect moment to reduce the gap. Yesterday Real Madrid dropped points against Betis (1:1), later today Barcelona playing against Girona so this is ‘must win’ game for hosts if they wants to win the title at the end of the season.

Atletico in last round lost 0:1 on the road against Barcelona and now they have motivation on the highest possible level to bounce back on good track front of home crowd. Atletico in current season is superb at home – 7 wins in 7 home matches with 17 goals scored in the process. They already won at home against strong teams like Real Madrid or Real Sociedad. Atletico shouldn’t have problems to win and score goals against the worst team in La Liga on the road – Almeria. Guests lost 6 of 7 away league matches so far and conceded 19 goals in the process. Atletico have big firepower with players like Morata, Griezmann or Correa and they should be able to score at least 2-3 goals today.

On the other hand Almeria is still without their second-best scorer & and second-best player in current season (according to the ratings) Suarez. It’s big blow. Almeria failed to score in last two matches and I see continuation of this trend today. According to the expected goals conceded model Atletico have the best defensive formation in whole La Liga. Almeria confidence is on the lowest possible level – at midweek they lost 0:1 in Cup against team from fourth level..

Hard to imagine any other result than routine win for hosts. 2/3:0 or even more very possible.

在我看来，马竞显然是这场比赛的热门，他们应该能够以至少2-3球的优势轻松取胜。主场1.5 AH看起来是最合理的选择。

马竞在最近3场主场对阿尔梅里亚的比赛中取得了胜利，并在此过程中打进了9球。今天我看到这些数字还在继续。

马竞目前排名第四，但这是缩小差距的最佳时机。昨天皇马在对阵贝蒂斯的比赛中丢分(1:1)，今天晚些时候巴萨将对阵赫罗纳，所以如果他们想在赛季结束时赢得冠军，这是东道主“必须赢”的比赛。

马竞在上一轮客场0:1输给了巴塞罗那，现在他们有动力在主场的观众面前恢复到最好的状态。本赛季马竞在主场表现出色，7场主场7胜，打进17球。他们已经在主场战胜了像皇家马德里和皇家社会这样的强队。在客场对阵西甲最差的球队阿尔梅里亚时，马竞应该不会有取胜和进球的问题。到目前为止，客队在联赛的7场客场比赛中输掉了6场，丢了19个球。马竞拥有强大的火力，有莫拉塔、格列兹曼和科雷亚这样的球员，他们今天应该能进至少2-3个球。

另一方面，阿尔梅里亚仍然没有他们本赛季第二好的射手和第二好的球员(根据评分)苏亚雷斯。这是个大打击。阿尔梅里亚在前两场比赛中都没有进球，我认为今天这种趋势还在继续。根据预期失球模型，马竞拥有整个西甲最好的防守阵型。阿尔梅里亚的信心处于最低水平——周中他们在足总杯上以0:1输给了排名第四的球队。

很难想象东道主除了常规的胜利之外还有什么结果。2/3:0，甚至更多，非常有可能。