I dont see Madrid favorite today.

Real Madrid is playing well, but they look exhausted. In the last games it has been pretty evident that they are at the limit. It has much merit to continue playing well with the problems they had this season: many injuries and coach Zidane was forced to use the same lineup (the best one) every week because the reserves dont have enough level.

That’s the reason to see key players like Luka Modric very tired (he had to be replaced in the weekend vs Betis) + others like Benzema or Kroos at the limit (remember that they are over 30 years old). This team in the last weeks are not making the high pressure and fast football they did, just are winning points thanks to a good defence and the quality of Benzema.

Madrid is suffering a lot in attack, as just Benzema is scoring goals and creating danger. And when he isn’t at 100%, Madrid isn’t able to score goals. Because of this, they are focused this season on a good defence, is a hard team to beat and the best example is that 3 of the last 4 games ended 0-0.

On the other hand, Chelsea is full of motivation after achieving to qualify to ½ finals and have the real chance to win the title. They are improving a lot lately, have a great squad (maybe better than Madrid in the defence and the attack) and come to this match with high morale after winning Manchester City in the FA Cup ½ finals.

Chelsea is a team who has a great defence, a really hard team to beat but with alternatives. They dont to dominate the games but also know to defend well and be dangerous at counters.

In ¼ finals they won easily Atlético de Madrid, who has a similar level to Real Madrid this season. But this game will be different: against Atletico, Chelsea had to dominate the game, but here it will be dominated. Anyway, it will be good for them as their defence is really good and don’t see Real Madrid able to score more than 1 goal (in best case) here.

Real Madrid suffers a lot when they play against teams with good defence, solid at the back, and competitive. And precisely Chelsea is this. Furthermore, if Chelsea achieves to put a high pace in the game, will be one step above Madrid and physically the english team is much better.

我不认为皇马是热门。

皇马最近的比赛表现不错，但看上去很疲惫。在过去的比赛中，很明显他们已达到极限。能否继续打好本赛季剩余的比赛还是疑问：许多的伤病问题使得教练齐达内每周几乎都使用同样的阵容（最好的阵容），因为轮换球员的实力不是很强。

这就是为什么像卢卡·莫德里奇（Luka Modric）这样的关键球员非常疲倦（他们在周末对阵贝蒂斯的比赛中被替换）+像本泽马或克罗斯这样的球员也处于极限的情况（他们已经超过30岁）。在过去的几周里，球队并没有表现出如此前那么强的压迫和快速的进攻表现，只是由于出色的防守和本泽马的个人能力赢得了积分。

皇马的进攻存在问题，只有本泽马能够制造危险和进球。当他不没有处在最佳水平时，皇马就无法进球。因此本赛季他们将重点放在防守上，这是一支很难击败的球队，最好的例子是最近4场比赛中的3场都以0-0结束。

另一方面切尔西在晋级半决赛充满了动力。他们最近进步很大，拥有出色的阵容（在防守和进攻方面可能比皇马更好），并且在足总杯半决赛中战胜了曼城，士气非常高涨。

切尔西是一支防守出色的球队，是一支很难被击败的球队。他们不追求控制比赛，防守得当并且在反击中很危险。

在1/4决赛中，他们轻松战胜马德里竞技，与皇家马德里水平接近。这场比赛将有所不同：在对阵马竞的比赛中，切尔西控制着比赛的节奏，但是这场比赛他们将会被皇马控制节奏。无论如何，这对他们来说将是一件好事，因为他们的防守确实非常出色，并且我不认为皇马能够打进1个球以上。

当皇马与防守且富有竞争力的球队交手时，他们往往会比较吃力。而切尔西恰恰是这样的球队。此外如果切尔西在比赛中采用高压，英格兰球队的身体素质更好。预测切尔西不败。