Yes, Celta has been extremely unlucky lately and deserves more points, but these odds are exaggerated for them.

After 14 rounds, Celta has won only 1 game so far, which was against bottom Almeria. Some performances were bad, others were unlucky, and some involved polemic referee decisions. However, they are in relegation and in a very dangerous situation.

The team seems to have a mental problem now. They can’t manage some situations in the games; they are conceding a lot of goals in the last minutes, making mistakes in defense, and upfront are struggling because their main striker and top scorer in recent seasons, Iago Aspas, is missing many chances and also penalties (2 this season). He has scored only 1 goal in 14 rounds so far, while usually, he used to be among the top 3/top 5 top scorers in the league with 15-20 goals per season. In defense, they have the long-term injury of their best CB, Aidoo.

This match is an absolute must-win for them because Cadiz is a direct rival for relegation, one position above them and marking the safe zone with 11 points, 3 more than Celta.

However, Cadiz isn’t an easy team to beat. They have a weak squad but are a very competitive team, specialists in being in this kind of situation in the relegation zone. I’d say that they are the team in La Liga with more experience fighting for relegation, successfully in recent years. The coach knows very well how to play these kinds of games, and players are very aware of their situation and plan.

Although their balance is 2/5/7, the majority of the defeats were against top teams, and in all games, they have been extremely competitive and difficult to beat.

The main reason for this pick is that I’m expecting a very tight game with a lot of nerves. Celta will have a lot of pressure, while Cadiz will feel very comfortable playing with that. Each minute running the clock with the draw will be more pressure for Celta, more potential mistakes, and beneficial situations for Cadiz.

Cadiz knows that they need to be patient, handle the strong start that Celta will probably have, and wait for their chance. It doesn't matter if they score or not; Celta will start to become more and more nervous if they see that they can’t get out of their situation, and if they see this match like a “dejavu,” where they could be dominating and deserving to win but not doing it.

Seeing Celta’s current situation, especially upfront, I can’t see them winning by a big margin here. Of course, they are favorites to win because they have more quality, but Cadiz has much more experience and knows much better how to play these kinds of games.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

是的，塞尔塔最近非常不走运，应该得到更多的分数，但这些几率对他们来说被夸大了。

14轮过后，塞尔塔至今只赢了1场，对手是垫底的阿尔梅里亚。有些人表现糟糕，有些人运气不佳，还有一些人涉及到激烈的裁判判罚。然而，他们正在降级，处境非常危险。

球队现在似乎有心理问题。他们无法处理游戏中的某些情况;他们在最后几分钟丢了很多球，在防守中犯了很多错误，锋线也很挣扎，因为他们的主要前锋和近几个赛季的头号射手伊阿古·阿斯帕斯错过了很多机会和点球(本赛季2次)。迄今为止，他在14轮比赛中只打进1球，而平时，他曾以15-20球的成绩进入联赛射手榜前3/前5名。在防守端，他们有他们最好的后腰艾杜的长期伤病。

这场比赛对他们来说绝对是一场必胜的比赛，因为加的斯是降级的直接竞争对手，比他们高一个名次，并且以11分锁定了安全区，比塞尔塔多3分。

然而，加的斯并不是一支容易被击败的球队。他们的阵容很弱，但他们是一支非常有竞争力的球队，他们是降级区这种情况下的专家。我想说的是，他们是西甲联赛中拥有更多保级经验的球队，近年来取得了成功。教练非常了解如何打这类比赛，球员们也非常清楚自己的情况和计划。

虽然他们的平衡是2/5/7，但大多数失败都是对阵顶级球队，在所有比赛中，他们都非常有竞争力，很难被击败。

这次选秀的主要原因是我期待着一场非常紧张的比赛。塞尔塔将会有很大的压力，而加的斯将会感到很舒服。平局的每一分钟都会给塞尔塔带来更大的压力，更多的潜在失误，以及对加的斯有利的情况。

加的斯知道他们需要耐心，面对塞尔塔可能拥有的强势开局，等待他们的机会。他们是否得分并不重要;如果塞尔塔意识到自己无法摆脱困境，如果他们将这场比赛视为一场“dejavu”，他们本可以占据统治地位，理应获胜，但却没有做到，那么他们将开始变得越来越紧张。

从塞尔塔目前的情况来看，尤其是前场，我不认为他们会以大比分获胜。当然，他们更有希望获胜，因为他们的实力更强，但加的斯有更多的经验，更知道如何打这种比赛。

12月05日塞尔塔 VS 加的斯比赛分析直播