Even despite major surprises on Saturday I am not planning to move away from the strategy of betting against teams with lowered motivation.

One more case will occur on Sunday in Serie A, where the night before, evidently, Crotone were seriously motivated by a pool of Italians clubs to give Parma a fight for points.

I doubt that anyone will be trying to financially stimulate AS Roma when they take on Cagliari on the Sardinia Island. Hosts are desperately fighting for survival and have taken 2 wins in a row against Parma (that has drowned by now) and Udinese.

Their chances of staying up have seriously improved and they are keeping a close eye on Spezia and Benevento, who look as the most realistic “victims” to take over and push into the relegation zone.

Cagliari are set to miss Radja Nainggolan, who is serving suspension. Otherwise their lineup is close to optimal. Nainggolan hasn’t been in any outstanding form this season, so his absence is not that big of a blow.

Main focus in the arguments for this pick is on AS Roma, though. Capital city club is basically done for the season in Serie A. They are definitely not finishing inside the Champions League quartet, while even the prospects of 5th position and Europa League are fading away. There is now a chance to end the campaign in 6th spot and qualify for… UEFA’s new competition The Conference League. Judging by the way Roma has been playing in recent weeks (fortunate draw 1-1 vs. Atalanta and even a greater lucky win against Bologna 1-0) aside - they are not that keen to end up in 6th position.

With the Europa League semi final scheduled for next Thursday against Man United, all their thoughts should be on that match. Even if the task looks unrealistic, it is their last chance to make it into the Champions League for next season.

Roma’s casualty list for Sunday is incredibly long, featuring 4 regular defenders (Smalling, Ibanez,Spinazolla and Kumbulla) Rotation is expected and the probable starting lineup for AS Roma looks really weak.

I expect Cagliari’s greater motivation for this match to help them cut the quality gap and take points against out of form AS Roma