Locked on 13 points, second-placed Italy and third-place Ukraine will decide who will join England as the second Group C passenger to Germany. With the stakes at an all-time high, Luciano Spalletti’s men have no margin for error, knowing another failed attempt to qualify for a major tournament would be a national catastrophe.

Since going down in Milan (2:1), Rebrov’s men have won back-to-back Euro qualifiers against North Macedonia and Malta by two-goal margins. A 2-0 friendly triumph over Polish outfit Lechia Gdansk ahead of this crunch encounter could’ve only consolidated Ukraine’s spirits. But Italy will present them with a different kind of challenge.

Ukraine might have gone unbeaten in their last nine matches as nominal hosts, yet six of those clashes have ended level (3 wins). Another draw won’t suffice. It means they’ll have to achieve a historic feat today to book tickets to Germany, having never won a game against Italy across their previous nine attempts (D2, L7).

However, they have a very talented team, with interesting players such as Artem Dovbyk who has been a talismanic fire for La Liga surprise package Girona this season. He has established himself as Ukraine’s lucky charm, with his national team racking up five wins in his six scoring international outings (D1).

Chelsea’s Mykhaylo Mudryk is about to return to the fold after recovering from injury, with three more Premier League stars expected to make Rebrov’s starting lineup. Everton’s Vitaliy Mykolenko and Bournemouth’s Illya Zabarnyi will form the backbone of the home side’s backline.

On the other hand, the math is simple for Italy – avoid defeat and go to Germany. Spalletti’s team proved their credentials against North Macedonia, who have been a thorn in their side in recent years. The Italians’ arguably most dominant display since lifting the Euro 2020 crown two years ago came as a stark reminder of their formidable stature in European football.

If that’s not enough to put the nation’s tensions to rest, Italy’s remarkable record in Euro qualifiers might help. Except for a brace of defeats to England in the ongoing cycle, Gli Azzurri haven’t lost any of their last 45 Euro qualifying matches (W38, D7). But Italy would be better off not taking anything for granted following an underwhelming four-game form on foreign soil (W1, D1, L2).

However, we must remember that this team has suffered severe blows in recent years, especially in the World Cup Qualifiers. Mentally, Italy is not prepared to compete in a game like this one.

For them the draw will be enough and I see that as the most possible result.

该文章通过有道机器翻译，仅供参考:

积分榜第二名的意大利和第三名的乌克兰将决定谁将加入英格兰队，成为C组第二个前往德国的球队。面对历史上最高的赌注，卢西亚诺·斯帕莱蒂的队员们没有犯错的余地，他们知道再一次失败的晋级将是一个国家的灾难。

在2:1输给米兰之后，雷布罗夫的球队在欧洲杯预选赛中以两球的优势背对背战胜了北马其顿和马耳他。在这场关键的比赛之前，乌克兰以2:0的比分战胜了波兰的格但斯克莱奇亚队，这只会让乌克兰士气更加高涨。但意大利将给他们带来另一种挑战。

乌克兰作为名义上的东道主在最近9场比赛中保持不败，但其中6场比赛都以平局结束(3胜)。再抽一次是不够的。这意味着他们必须在今天取得历史性的成就才能订到前往德国的门票，因为他们在之前的9次尝试中(D2, L7)从未赢过意大利。

然而，他们拥有一支非常有天赋的球队，拥有一些有趣的球员，比如阿特姆·多夫比克，他本赛季在西甲的惊喜组合赫罗纳中起到了护身符的作用。他已经成为乌克兰的幸运女神，在他的6场国际比赛中，他的国家队取得了5场胜利(D1)。

切尔西的米哈伊洛·穆德莱克即将伤愈复出，还有三名英超球星有望成为雷布罗夫的首发阵容。埃弗顿的维塔利·米科连科和伯恩茅斯的伊利亚·扎巴尼将成为主队后防线的中坚力量。

另一方面，意大利的数学很简单——避免失败，去德国。斯帕莱蒂的球队在与北马其顿的比赛中证明了他们的实力，北马其顿近年来一直是他们的眼中钉。自两年前夺得2020年欧洲杯冠军以来，意大利人可以说是最具统治力的表现，这鲜明地提醒了他们在欧洲足坛的强大地位。

如果这还不足以平息国内的紧张局势，那么意大利在欧洲杯预选赛中的出色战绩可能会有所帮助。除了连续两次输给英格兰之外，蓝衣军团在最近的45场欧洲杯预选赛中没有输过一场(W38, D7)。但是意大利最好不要想当然，因为他们在国外的四场比赛(W1, D1, L2)表现平平。

然而，我们必须记住，这支球队近年来遭受了严重的打击，特别是在世界杯预选赛中。在精神上，意大利还没有准备好参加这样的比赛。

对他们来说，平局就足够了，我认为这是最有可能的结果。

11月21日乌克兰 VS 意大利比赛分析直播