In my opinion Luton have very good chances to make at least one point in this match up.

In previous season Luton lost twice against Reading in league, but a lot of things changed since then - Luton played in current season at this stadium in EFL Cup and won here 1:0. They have good mental advantage before today's match.

Luton improved a lot in comparison to the previous season - they have really good manager Nathan Jones, they made smart transfers in pre-season. In last year they played until last round to avoid relegation, now they are solid Championship side. Their defense is not easy to break - they kept clean sheet 7 times in 20 matches, this is great result in their standards. In 9 away matches (without bad loss against Cardiff), they conceded only 7 goals. Luton had very hard schedule - in 4 of last 6 matches they played against top6 teams. They lost two matches, both on away - against strong Swansea and Middlesbrough, but twice Luton played better than opposition and had bigger expected goals number. In the meantime they were able to stop Bournemouth (2nd) or won at home against leader of the table Norwich. Today Luton coming for this match without any important absences.

Reading started new season in great style, but that was much above pre-season expectations. Many experts saw them as a team for bottom half of the table and without any shadow of doubt they are not team for top8. They don't have potential for such a place. Their form slashed down, they lost 3 of last 4 matches. They were able to win on away against QPR 1:0, but that was very lucky - expected goals scored for QPR 0.96, for Reading only 0.28. Before today's match Reading have serious squad problems:

Key central defender Moore (18 matches), central defender Gibson (4 matches) and best striker Joao (11 goals and 4 assists in 16 matches) are very doubtful. In addition to that second-best scorer Meite (6 goals and 1 assist in 12 matches), key left defender Richards (18 matches), central midfielder Swift (2 matches), striker Puscas (2 goals in 8 matches), right defender Araruna (2 matches) and right defender Yiadom (3 matches) are unavailable.

Reading without their top offensive stars will have problems to break Luton solid defense, on the other hand Luton is in better form and for sure will have chances to score against depleted Reading defense.

As well this is not long travel for guests - it's only around 1 an hour drive by car from Luton to Reading. I see excellent value on Luton, odds shouldn't be higher than 1.50.

在我看来，在这场比赛中，卢顿有很好的机会至少得一分。

上个赛季，卢顿在联赛中输给雷丁两次，但之后很多事情都改变了——卢顿在本赛季的联赛杯比赛中就在这个球场进行过比赛，并以1:0的比分获胜。在今天的比赛之前，他们有很好的心理优势。

与前一个赛季相比，卢顿进步了很多——他们有非常好的主教练内森·琼斯，也引进了多位优秀的新援。去年他们在努力保级，本赛季他们在联赛中发挥不错。他们的防守不容易打破——他们在20场比赛中有7次没有失球，以他们的标准来看，这是很好的结果。在9场客场比赛中(没有输给卡迪夫)，他们只丢了7个球。卢顿的赛程非常艰难——在最近的6场比赛中，他们有4场对阵的是排名前6的球队。他们输了两场比赛，都是客场——对阵强大的斯旺西和米德尔斯堡，但两次卢顿都比对手打得好，并且打进了更多的进球。在此期间，他们成功的阻止了伯恩茅斯(第二名)或者在主场战胜了积分榜第一的诺维奇。今天卢顿来参加这场比赛，没有任何重要的球员缺阵。

雷丁在新赛季开始时表现出色，但这远远超出了季前赛的预期。许多专家认为他们是排名的球队，但毫无疑问，他们不是前8名的团队。他们没有这样的潜力。他们状态急转直下，在过去四场比赛中输了三场。他们能够在客场1:0战胜女王公园，但这是非常幸运的- 女王公园的预期进球是0.96，而雷丁只有0.28。在今天的比赛之前，雷丁有严重的阵容问题:

关键的中后卫摩尔(18场比赛)，中后卫吉布森(4场比赛)和最佳前锋若昂(16场比赛11个进球和4次助攻)都值得怀疑。除了排名第二的梅特(12场比赛6粒进球1次助攻)，左后卫理查兹(18场比赛)，中卫斯威夫特(2场比赛)，前锋普斯卡斯(8场比赛2球)，右后卫阿鲁纳(2场比赛)和右后卫叶亚东(3场比赛)都不能上场。

雷丁失去了他们的顶级进攻明星，将很难打破卢顿坚实的防守，另一方面，卢顿的状态更好，肯定会有机会在雷丁防守枯竭的情况下得分。

此外，这对客队来说不是很长的旅程——从卢顿开车到雷丁只有大约1个小时的车程。我认为卢顿很有价值，指数不应该高于1.50。